NRL 2019 pre-season power rankings: Finding form in the last chance saloon

As the first NRL game of the year ticks ever closer, Nick Campton ranks every team in the league. In the first instalment he analyses the teams with plenty to prove in 2019.

Put the Kookaburra away and hail the comeback of the Steeden, after a long summer the return of rugby league is almost upon us.

When Melbourne host Brisbane next Thursday night the speculation and prediction will be over and all the pre-season tips will be proven to be genius, stupidity or something in-between.

Just about every team has something to like, enough of the good stuff for their fans to start dreaming of finals football but there can be only eight, and then only one who will drink from the keg of glory come October.

These rankings could change by the time the dust settles after Round 1 but as it stands this is where the 16 teams sit in terms of roster strength, potential positional changes and the impact of new recruits and coaches right now.

16TH: CANTERBURY BULLDOGS

2018 finish: 12th

Anybody can knock down a barn but it takes a carpenter to build one and in 2019 the Bulldogs will start to learn if Dean Pay has the tools.

The focus for Canterbury since Des Hasler left has been crawling through the millions of dollars of bad contracts in an effort to come out clean on the other side and they’re very nearly there. Pay’s first Bulldogs outfit was light on stars but high on spirit, improving as the season went on and as they showed more faith in untested players like Lachlan Lewis, Reimis Smith and Rhyse Martin.

They weren’t a good team but they weren’t a bad one either, they always played hard and that’s about all you can ask for.

But to get there, the Dogs had to shed Moses Mbye, the most dynamic playmaker at the club, Aaron Woods, who made it all of 14 games into a four-year deal, and by year’s end David Klemmer, Canterbury’s best player and one of the top front-rowers in the game, was gone as well.

The emergence of Lachlan Lewis was a rare highlight for Canterbury. Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images.

One could say that losing Woods and Mbye was worth it in order to get some flexibility with their salary cap but it’s a haphazard way of doing business. Klemmer has admitted that the handling of the Woods situation was part of what made him leave. It is difficult to build a foundation on quicksand.

And for all that Canterbury has done there is still more. Kieran Foran looked good in the trial loss to Canberra but it’s now been four seasons since he put together a year of quality football and was injury free.

The former Kiwi Test star is on more than $1 million a season and regardless of injury problems he needs to start producing to even come close to justifying that hefty price tag.

There are also big holes all over the roster. Michael Lichaa and Jeremy Marshall-King will fight it out to start at hooker but is either man a realistic long-term option? Will Hopoate is an underrated fullback who played some very good football last year but the lack of outside backs may force him to the centres.

Napa is known for his impact but not his workrate. Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images.

Josh Jackson, Rhyse Martin, Corey Harawira-Naera and Raymond Faitala-Mariner are all above average edge forwards at the very least but at least one of them will be forced either to the bench or the middle, or not make the team at all. It’s a strange, transitionary roster that doesn’t seem to fit together.

There are also real questions over Dylan Napa’s ability to replace Klemmer as the new pack leader at Belmore. Napa has the talent to do so, and he always has. Few who have seen Napa at his best — like in his back alley brutalising of the Rabbitohs in 2016 — would doubt that.

But those matches have become few and far between for the red menace. His seven-match rookie season aside, Napa posted career lows last year in average metres per game, average minutes per game, tackle breaks and tackles per game while conceding the most penalties of any season in his career and coming under scrutiny for his missile-like tackle technique. It’s a lot to ask Napa, a bench player for much of last year, to replace Klemmer’s 174 metres a match.

We will have a true measure of Pay at the end of 2019. Picture by Brett Costello.

Napa has always been a power hitter rather than a workhorse. He can rise to the occasion when required for Queensland and could put in some strong, one-off displays for the Roosters but consistency has not quite been his forte.

The 26-year old will have some support in the reliable Aidan Tolman and Adam Elliott but the Bulldogs might be asking Napa to do a job he’s just not equipped for — sprinters don’t run the mile.

We won’t see the best of the Bulldogs, or of Dean Pay, this season. They’re still in the middle stages of their transformation from what they were to whatever they may be. There’s a lot of grinders here, a lot of hard workers, but precious little creativity or spark. Pay’s Bulldogs will always try hard but it’s difficult to see them having the weapons to climb the ladder.

Best XVII: 1. Will Hopoate 2. Reimis Smith 3. Morgan Harper 4. Kerrod Holland 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Lachlan Lewis 7. Kieran Foran 8. Aiden Tolman 9. Michael Lichaa 10. Dylan Napa 11. Josh Jackson 12. Rhyse Martin 13. Adam Elliott.Interchange:14. Jeremy Marshall-King 15. Corey Harawira-Naera 16. Sauaso Sue 17. Danny Fualalo

Stat of note: Canterbury were in the bottom four of the ladder every week in 2018.

The big question: What remains of Kieran Foran?

When Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans were courting offers in their final season at Manly a popular discussion was who would you choose between the two, assuming you could only sign one. The natural choice, to me at least, was Cherry-Evans. Not because Foran wasn’t as good as Cherry-Evans or as important to Manly’s success, because he undeniably was, but because Cherry-Evans’s game was based more on his skills and Foran’s was based on his leadership and physicality.

Cherry-Evans had the more versatile and adaptable style. You could build things off of Cherry-Evans more easily, you could readily identify the things he’s good at every time he played well. It’s not like that with Foran. The reason they worked so well together was because Foran doesn’t have a howitzer boot or a top shelf running game, the things he brings don’t show up on the stat sheet as readily.

What remains of Kieran Foran? Picture by Brett Costello.

One of Foran’s best attributes was his willingness to throw himself into the contest with no regard for self-preservation. It’s an inspiring and valuable trait and it also ages horribly. This will be Foran’s 11th season in first grade and the last time he managed more than 20 games in a season was 2014. The injuries have piled up to the point where Foran averaged 4.5 runs per game last season, easily the lowest mark of his career.

Foran can still be a leader and can still help guide a team around the park, but can he be the number one playmaker on a team that doesn’t really have a number two? Lewis did some very nice things last year and Jack Cogger was thrown into first grade before he was ready and will improve, but it’s all on Foran and it’s been quite a while since he shone.

Breakout player: Morgan Harper

There’s been some real excitement about the potential of young Kiwi Harper, who’s played plenty of good football in the lower grades for Canterbury in recent years.

If Hopoate starts the season at fullback it opens up a spot out wide for Harper and if he can match the hype it’ll give the Bulldogs some of the spark they sorely need.

15TH: MANLY SEA EAGLES

2018 finish: 15th

Has it really been seven seasons since Des Hasler left Manly? It doesn’t feel that way but so much has happened at the Sea Eagles since, so many players have been and gone. Hasler is the link to Manly’s last golden era and, as they always do when troubled, the Silvertails have reverted to the known.

The last Manly team Hasler helmed won the premiership on the back of rookie halfback Daly Cherry-Evans, hard-nosed five-eighth Kieran Foran and a core that, for the most part, had been there for the two grand final runs in 2007 and 2008.

Upon Hasler’s return all those old soldiers are gone. The Stewart brothers, Steve Matai and Anthony Watmough all left on bad terms. Foran cashed out and started to succumb to his all-action style. Jamie Lyon retired and vanished into the bush to shoot pigs. Only Cherry-Evans is left and he’s not the young prince anymore but a $10 million man.

Hasler returns to a very different club to the one he left.

We’re not so far removed from Hasler being up there with Craig Bellamy and Wayne Bennett as the best coach in the game. Among active coaches, only those two can equal or better his four grand final appearances and only Bellamy has been to the big one more times this century. Bellamy, Bennett, Hasler and Trent Robinson are the only current coaches with multiple premierships to their name — between the four of them they won every grand final from 2006 to 2013.

Bennett and Graham Murray are the only other coaches to have taken two different clubs to grand finals in the NRL era. Hasler very nearly became the first coach ever to win grand finals with different clubs in back to back years after he turned Canterbury into instant contenders once he joined in 2012. When the Bulldogs returned to the decider two years later it was perhaps the finest coaching job of Hasler’s career — not his best team, not by miles, but considering the resources at his disposal it was an epic effort to get the blue and whites to the grand final after they finished seventh on the ladder.

The Des Hasler way has always been successful and Manly are betting it will be again. They are better than their 15th finish last year indicates — there is talent here, some of it of the highest order and Hasler has shown himself to be adaptable in the past.

But that was the past and there’s a reason Canterbury were eager to see the back of Hasler mere months after re-signing him. Given he’d taken the club to five finals series in six years getting the boot at the end of a 10-14 season seems like a hasty decision but the marks against Hasler were strong.

Hasler rose fast and fell faster at Canterbury. Picture by Stephen Cooper.

Through the back-ended deals he so favours, the Bulldogs were drawn into a salary cap hell they are still extricating themselves from. The players who took the club to the 2012 and 2014 grand finals grew long in the tooth while still earning top dollar.

Other players stagnated, or didn’t develop once they reached a certain level. There was some poor list management — like when the club let Damien Cook walk because they already had Michael Lichaa, or when Martin Taupau left for the Tigers and Dale Finucane was released to join Melbourne. Hasler seemed set in his ways — he neutralised Michael Ennis as a creator and stunted Lichaa’s running game to the point that he may never recover the form he showed as a junior.

Hasler’s Canterbury teams from 2015 to 2017 were always tough and capable and competitive but they also turned in some of the most relentlessly dull attacking football of recent times. They were never bad enough to bottom out completely but also never good enough to take the next step.

These are not cardinal sins. Every coach makes mistakes, even the very best.

But enough time has passed that it’s fair to question what Hasler will bring to the table in his second stint with Manly. Will he shape his plan’s and style to the roster’s strengths, as he did in the early years with the Sea Eagles and Bulldogs? Or will he try to build something new? If he chooses the latter, what will it look like?

Manly need answers to these questions and they need them soon. The club has missed the finals four times in the last five years — the last time they missed out five times in six years was the early 1960s. The Sea Eagles don’t do losing, at least not for long, and the pressure is on Hasler from the start.

Best XVII: 1 Tom Trbojevic 2. Jorge Taufua 3. Moses Suli 4. Dylan Walker 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Kane Elgey 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Apisai Koroisau 10 Martin Taupau 11. Joel Thompson 12. Curtis Sironen 13. Jake Trbojevic

Interchange: 14. Manase Fainu 15. Taniela Paseka 16. Kelepi Tanginoa 17. Frank Winterstein/Lloyd Perrett

Stat of note: Manly had three players picked for Australia last year, the same amount as reigning premiers the Sydney Roosters.

The big question: Is the roster too top heavy?

Despite their lowly finish last season there are solid building blocks at Manly. The Trbojevic brothers are Test and Origin regulars, Daly Cherry-Evans has proven himself a top halfback time and again, Martin Taupau is one of the best middle forwards in the league, hooker Apisai Koroisau is very capable, Addin Fonua-Blake is a player on the rise and, assuming he returns at some stage this season, there’s still plenty of ability in Dylan Walker.

That’s a fair nucleus for a good team but the drop off to the rest of the squad is frighteningly dramatic. It’s a mix of the unproven looking for a chance, offcuts from other clubs looking for a fresh start and battlers doing their best.

Manly rely too heavily on the Trbojevic brothers. Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images.

The club has lost several players who were not stars but would have helped them fill out their roster, like Shaun Lane and Brian Kelly, and these players are yet to be properly replaced. There are some good young players coming through, like Albert Hopoate, Tevita Funa and promising hooker Manase Fainu, but the spaces between the stars are huge.

Joel Thompson is the kind of player Manly need more of. A consummate professional and a veteran of a decade in the league, Thompson is no representative superstar but he’s the kind of player every club needs. He does his job, every time, and while he may not stand out to fans he’s part of the glue that holds a roster together.

Manly have the talent to be competitive week to week, but do they have the sustained quality to challenge for the finals? And if one of their top guns goes down, as we’ll see in the opening weeks of the season as they go on without Tom Trbojevic, the drop off could be crippling.

Breakout player: Kane Elgey

Hopoate will likely see significant action on the wing for Manly and Hasler may be able to get more out of the lumbering Moses Suli but Manly’s most astute purchase in the off-season could also turn out to be their best.

In 2015 Elgey was the future of the Titans, a local product who seemed to have all the skills one could want in a half and the ability to carry the Gold Coast forward for years to come. Then came the knee injury that wiped him out for 2016 and in the two seasons since he’s yet to hit those heights again.

Ash Taylor took his mantle, the two never seemed to really combine and Elgey spent much of last season in reserve grade, where he dominated, and though he only showed flashes of his ability in first grade he’s well worth persisting with.

Elgey’s main competition in the race to partner Daly Cherry-Evans in the halves is Trent Hodkinson, who always deserves your respect (2014 State of Origin series forever), but the former Titan has far more upside. If Hasler can shake off the dust, Elgey could be a terrific inclusion.

14TH: PARRAMATTA EELS

2018 finish: 16th

In ancient Greece they told a story about a cursed man named Sisyphus. He was punished for his sins in life by way of rolling a boulder up an immense hill, only for it to roll back down the hill whenever he reached the top. Sisyphus was forced to repeat this ordeal for all eternity.

Now 1986 wasn’t exactly an eternity ago, but Parramatta fans no doubt know exactly how Sisyphus felt. Every time the club’s latest build seems to be coming to an end, the boulder rolls back down the hill.

We’re only 12 months removed from Parramatta being among the premiership favourites. They’d ended their finals drought in 2017 and gave that year’s mighty Melbourne Storm side all they could handle. The blue and golds had been through the salary cap hell of years past and were reborn as a powerhouse. After a decade of mediocrity and years spent propping up the rest of the ladder the glory days were back for Parra.

Then the boulder rolled back down the hill. The Eels spent all but three weeks last year in 16th spot on the ladder. Their forward pack, which was undersized in 2017 but made up for it with tenacity and toughness, were repeatedly trampled with contemptuous ease.

Mitchell Moses endured a tough year in 2018.

Mitchell Moses and Corey Norman, who worked so well together in 2017, looked like they’d never met and the spine was shuffled constantly. Nathan Brown, their best forward, played just 14 matches and Clint Gutherson took some time to work his way back after an ACL tear the year before.

The entire year was a fiasco, a disaster, a sadly familiar march to the club’s third wooden spoon and fourth bottom four finish in the last seven years. This kind of collapse was supposed to be a thing of the past — in Arthur’s previous four seasons the Eels had never won less than nine games and had a losing record just once. Were it not for the salary cap penalties in 2016 they would have made the finals twice. Semi Radradra had left town and that was a blow, but not enough to crater from the top four to the spoon.

And so, Parra have once again begin pushing the boulder up the hill. Sick of being trampled they have brought in two of the largest lads in the NRL — Shaun Lane is punching down on nearly every man in the league and Junior Paulo is a mountain somebody taught to carry a football. The Eels sorely needed players of their physical characteristics and may score the buy of the year in Paulo, who returns to the club after two and a half years with Canberra.

Paulo could be one of the buys of the year. Picture by Richard Dobson.

The Samoan international was the Raiders’ most impressive middle forward during the majority of his stay and would have entered Origin calculations had he been at a more high-profile club. Paulo is also capable of greater output than one might anticipate — playing 60 minutes per match is not beyond him.

Norman, who helped hold the club together during some very tough times, is out the door and has been replaced by the highly-regarded Dylan Brown. Apart from his initial stint with Parramatta in 2017, Moses has always worked best when he’s been given total control of a team and the Eels are betting that will be the case this season.

However, it’s worth noting that Moses isn’t some shrinking violet of a rookie anymore. This season will be his sixth in first grade and he’s played nire than 100 games. Proving his talent has never been a problem for the Lebanese international, but performing consistently has eluded him thus far in his first grade career and that’s the ingredient he needs to add to become the player he’s always promised to be.

Arthur’s future may be on the line. Picture by John Appleyard.

Parramatta weren’t the kind of wooden spooners who were so utterly hopeless that their fans became resigned to multiple seasons in the doldrums. There are good players here and reasons to be optimistic.

Gutherson will start at fullback with a full pre-season behind him, Blake Ferguson will provide some of the punch and finishing ability the team has lacked since Radradra left and the club has some promising youngsters coming through including Reed Mahoney, Oregon Kaufusi, Marata Niukore and Ethan Parry. After two years at ANZ Stadium the Eels will have a real home ground again, which can’t be underestimated.

The boulder is being rolled back up the hill but there’s enough holes in the roster and question marks around the team that you could forgive even the heartiest fan for thinking it might just roll back down again.

Best XVII: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Bevan French 3. Michael Jennings 4. Brad Takairangi 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Daniel Alvaro 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Manu Ma’u 12. Shaun Lane 13. Nathan Brown. Interchange 14. Tim Mannah 15. Tepai Moeroa 16. Marata Niukore 17. Peni Terepo

Stat of note: If Brad Arthur coaches every game this season he will become Parramatta’s second-most capped coach ever.

The big question: Is this Brad Arthur’s last chance?

The wrap on Brad Arthur is he’s a better coach than he’s given credit for but at some point you are what your record says you are.

Arthur inherited a bad roster in 2014, navigated the salary cap scandal and copious amounts of boardroom upheaval and steered Parramatta to three winning seasons in five years while also taking them to their first finals series since 2009 and their best regular season finish since 2005.

That finals campaign in 2017 is also the club’s sole trip to the playoffs under Arthur’s watch. The 44-year-old has shown himself to be a capable coach during his time with Parramatta but given he’s off-contract at season’s end he needs results, if not a finals run, to earn a new extension.

Breakout player: Dylan Brown

Brown is a decidedly uncreative choice here given the hype the 18-year-old has attracted all pre-season but based on what he showed in the trials he’s capable of living up to the billing.

It may be a year or two before Brown blossoms into the franchise playmaker several clubs believe he’s capable of becoming but he’s physically capable of handling the top grade and backs his running game early and often — two excellent traits for any half. Brown also has a good kicking game and advanced decision making. Right now, he’s the favourite for rookie of the year.

13TH: GOLD COAST TITANS

2018 finish: 14th

The Titans have all the pieces.

It’s impossible to know how they all fit together or if they can fit at all, but the Titans have them.

Everything the Titans do is done pretty quietly. The competition’s youngest club just doesn’t have the footprint of their Queensland rivals and the Gold Coast has proven to be something of a black hole for teams of all codes over the past few decades.

Nevertheless, the Titans have a squad, a real squad, that’s well-rounded and deeper than you think and capable of challenging for the finals.

Let’s go through it quickly. AJ Brimson showed himself to be an adequate five-eighth last season and blossomed into a hyperactive running machine once he switched to fullback. Anthony Don, Brenko Lee, Phillip Sami and Brian Kelly are all first grade quality players and each has the potential to be more than that. Tyrone Peachey might be in the centres and Michael Gordon can cover any spot in the outside backs should the need arise.

Ash Taylor is yet to kick on from his excellent rookie season in 2016 but his talent is as undeniable as it is prodigious. He’s got Tyrone Roberts, a good mate and his preferred halves partner, back this season and Peachey might be in there as well.

Garth Brennan has the pieces he’ll need to challenge for the finals. Picture by Jason O'Brien.

The forward pack is positively nasty. Jai Arrow, Ryan James and Jarrod Wallace have proved themselves capable of running over the top of anyone in the league. Shannon Boyd complements the three starters, who all play big minutes. Moeaki Fotuaika is as good a front-row prospect as there is in the league. Kevin Proctor hasn’t recaptured his Melbourne form but he’s still well above average and if they need another second rower Peachey can play there. Nathan Peats can hold the pack together and Mitch Rein is over-qualified to be his back up.

There is a good football team in here somewhere, but can Garth Brennan draw it out?

The second-year coach has a number of crucial decisions to make that will rapidly define the scope of Gold Coast’s finals chances.

Brimson is an absolute firecracker and fullback seems to be his best spot at this point of his career. But the 20-year old underwent a shoulder reconstruction in the off-season and Brennan wants to ease him back slowly, possibly as a bench utility, and start the year with Gordon in the No.1 jersey. That’s fair enough, but how long will Brennan wait before throwing the young man on the deck?

Brimson is an exciting talent. Picture by Adam Head.

Peachey is a puzzle many coaches have failed to solve. His talent is obvious and wherever he plays he can contribute in some manner but Brennan has to at least find some loose framework for the NSW Origin utility. Centre or second row are the two major vacancies on the roster but wherever Peachey is placed it’s important not to nail him down to one corridor of the field. As Peachey showed in the All Star game, he’s capable of impacting the game from first receiver and can do good work around the ruck. Nailing him to one side of the field is limiting.

Brennan has also expressed a preference for switching Ryan James to second row and starting Boyd at prop. While there is no clear contender to partner Proctor if James stays in the middle (Will Matthews or Bryce Cartwright are the other options) the upside of leaving James in the middle might be too good to pass up.

James has proven himself to be an excellent prop. His work rate and ability to play long minutes are invaluable and in many ways he’s the heart and soul of the Titans. When he’s been moved to the edge an already shaky Titans defence has been undone by his lack of familiarity with the position.

He started last year on the edge as well before moving back to the middle. If his positional switch is permanent it would be a classic case of weakening a strength to strengthen a weakness.

Boyd joins from Canberra on a rich, long-term deal but that does not mean the big man should be pencilled in as a starter from the jump. In his five seasons with Canberra Boyd never averaged more than 40 minutes a game or 100 metres gained per match.

Given Wallace, Arrow and James can all play 60 minutes or more the best way to use Boyd seems to be in short, blockbusting stints where he doesn’t have to worry about pacing himself.

That’s a lot of moving parts Brennan needs to fit together and a lot to ask of a coach in his second season. By the end of 2019 we’ll have the measure of Brennan as an NRL coach, because he has all the assets he needs at his disposal.

Best XVII: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Anthony Don 3. Brenko Lee 4. Brian Kelly 5. Phillip Sami 6. Tyrone Roberts 7. Ashley Taylor 8. Jarrod Wallace 9. Nathan Peats 10. Ryan James 11. Kevin Proctor 12. Tyrone Peachey 13. Jai Arrow. Interchange: 14. Mitch Rein 15. Moeaki Fotuaika 16. Bryce Cartwright 17. Shannon Boyd

Stat of note: In seven of Gold Coast’s eight wins last season they scored at least 30 points.

The Titans need the best of Ash Taylor. Picture by Zak Simmonds.

The big question: Which Ash Taylor will we get?

Aside from roster decisions, Brennan has to find some way to get the best out of Taylor. Heading into his fourth season, the time has come for Taylor to take the next step. In the last two seasons he’s been second and first in terms of try assists and he has the best general play kicking game of any young half in the competition.

But Taylor also led the league in errors last year with a staggering 51 and his attitude after he missed Origin selection left much to be desired. Taylor has been the future for the Titans since the day he signed, the time has come for him to be their present and Brennan must unlock that however he can.

Taylor’s ceiling is high. Multiple Origin series victories, best halfback in the game high. But there have been times in the last two seasons where you’ve had to really squint to see that player and that’s not good enough. It’s time for Taylor to become the player he’s always shown he could be.

Breakout player: Moeaki Fotuaika

Fotuaika could still play under-20s this season but after an excellent rookie campaign he could be trusted to play a lot more first grade football in 2019. In 16 matches last year Fotuaika looked comfortable in the engine room at the top level and he has all the ingredients one could want in an up and coming prop. Along with Boyd he should receive the bulk of the bench minutes for the Titans.