Nathan Cleary surgery: Numbers behind Penrith Panthers star’s race to round 1 in Las Vegas

Nathan Cleary’s long and arduous journey to play in Las Vegas starts now following shoulder surgery. We break down the Panthers superstar’s rehabilitation timeline.

• First picture: Cleary’s surgery success

Surgery complete - now it’s the great race for Las Vegas.

Panthers star Nathan Cleary underwent Latarjet surgery on his troublesome shoulder in Sydney on Monday and will now start a long rehabilitation program - but will he recover in time for America?

The recovery time for Cleary is 12 to 16 weeks – the round one Vegas match against Cronulla will be played in 16 weeks. It will be tight.

The NRL cannot, and would not, push for Cleary to play but there’s little doubt the governing body hopes rugby league’s number one player will be in Nevada to play and promote the game.

And Panthers fans shelling out considerable money for their US experience would want to watch their superstar live but Penrith’s high performance team is known to play the long-game with injuries.

“From a pure medical standpoint, unless he has any significant setbacks in his rehab, there’s no reason he won’t be fit and medically available for round one in Vegas so it will come down to whether Penrith push him to play,” said leading sports physio, Brien Seeney.

“If it was a regular round one clash, I don’t think they’d even consider rushing him but everyone wants to go to Vegas.

Nathan Cleary carried the injury through the season. Picture: NRL Photos

“The recovery range is usually around 12 to 16 weeks for Latarjet surgery. Vegas is a big spectacle but is it worth sending him over there underdone, coming off 16 weeks of rehab, not forgetting the travel aspect?

“No player coming off any rehab process is 100 per cent going into their first week back. They haven’t had match fitness.

“It will come down to whether Penrith want to take that risk given it’s a long season ahead and they’re going for five premierships in a row. Do they leave him for round two and not make him do the round-trip to Vegas?

“With these return-to-play decisions, you have to toss up how important the return game is. The Vegas spectacle will play a role because it’s a big deal and I’m sure Nathan would be pretty keen to play.

“There’s a saying in the medical sports world: ‘There’s a difference between return-to-play and return-to-performance’. Return-to-play can be 16 weeks but return-to-performance can be three to four weeks after that because it takes time to build match fitness.”

Cleary will be in a sling for six weeks and be banned from contact, tackling or wrestling until four to six weeks before his return. Once back and established, Cleary can focus on driving his relentless Panthers to a fifth successive title.

Cleary enjoyed a post-grand final holiday in Europe, including a visit to Switzerland, with Matilda’s girlfriend Mary Fowler. He arrived back in Sydney on Saturday afternoon.

After Monday’s operation, Cleary posted a selfie with the word ‘surgery’, followed by a tick and smiley face, to his 435,000 Instagram followers. Penrith shared the photo on their social media platforms.

Shoulder reconstruction surgery done for Nathan Cleary - average return to play time of around 4 months.

17 weeks til Round 1 in Vegas for the Panthers - the race begins for Cleary to prove his fitness! pic.twitter.com/kfoLNuGEwR

— NRL PHYSIO (@nrlphysio) November 4, 2024

Surgery, performed on the left shoulder which Cleary nursed through the finals, involved a bone graft for greater stability.

Cleary had a similar operation on his right shoulder after 2021, the recovery spanning five-and-a-half months, but that procedure included an additional rotator cuff repair.

The lengthy recovery is a setback for Penrith and Cleary given his long-time partner Jarome Luai is moving to Wests Tigers. Cleary will require time to gel with his new halves partner - either Blaize Talagi, Jack Cole or Brad Schneider.

The injury cost Cleary a place in Australia’s Pacific Championships squad.