Million-dollar maybes: Which off-contract NRL star should your club pay $1 million?

The NRL free agency market is heating up as clubs scramble to secure elite talent. PAUL CRAWLEY looks for value and the fans have their say too.

Ben Hunt is the NRL’s perfect example of why splashing big cash on a star playmaker is still no guarantee for success in today’s game for desperate clubs.

And why for every dollar overpaid to recruit a top-shelf off-contract player, it results in money that’s not available for others down the list in any top-30 squad.

With so much hype around the top stars coming off contract at the end of 2024 and players like Jarome Luai, Tom Dearden, Ezra Mam and Joseph Manu leading the charge to become the NRL’s next million-dollar men, Hunt remains the cautionary tale of why the big spend is not always the safest investment.

Since Hunt joined St George Illawarra in 2018 on a $1 million-a-season plus deal, the club has only played finals football once, in his first season after switching from the Broncos.

Yet, the Dragons have lost two coaches in Paul McGregor and Anthony Griffin, with Shane Flanagan now forced to start all over again.

While Hunt has been the Dragons’ best player in that time, it has not turned around the battling club’s fortunes, questioning whether their investment strategy was correct.

Paul Crawley analyses the realistic value of what the top off-contract players are worth — and what they are likely to get.

Ben Hunt has struggled to lift the Dragons despite his unquestionable individual efforts. Picture: NRL Photos

EZRA MAM

Age: 20

Position: Five-eighth

Estimated worth: $800,000 to $1 million

Crawley’s verdict: Was on a cut-price deal of $320,000 in 2023 but showed with a grand final hat-trick that he is ready to own the big stage. While he’s expected to stay at the Broncos for around $800,000-a-season, he would command $1 million if he goes to the highest bidder. And it won’t be just the battlers lining up for this bloke given Mam’s already shown why he possesses the type of X-factor that can win a premiership.

The concern at this stage of his career is whether Mam is ready to handle the expectation and pressure that comes with a big-money contract. It’s destroyed plenty of young careers in the past.

Ezra Mam showed in the NRL grand final why he is due a massive pay rise. Picture: Adam Head

TOM DEARDEN

Age: 22

Position: Five-eighth

Estimated worth: $750,000 to $900,000

Crawley’s verdict: The Cowboys are hoping Dearden will stay for less but the Dragons have made it abundantly clear how desperate they are to sign Dearden, even offering up the chance to play halfback.

Was on a reported $520,000 last season but can expect a generous pay rise no matter where he lands. Yet the jury’s out on if Dearden is capable/ready to become the chief playmaker.

What is in his favour is he is so competitive and courageous, you wouldn’t think a big-money contract will have any impact on Dearden’s motivation going forward.

Tom Dearden has proved himself one of the NRL’s most consistent players with an effort and energy that few can match. Picture: Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images

JAROME LUAI

Age: 26

Position: Five-eighth

Estimated worth: $850,000 to $1.2 million

Crawley’s verdict: The most talked about player on the open market but the question is whether Luai can be the chief playmaker, or if he’d be better off taking less to stay at the Panthers, where he can play outside Nathan Cleary and potentially win more premierships.

Was on $680,000 this year but the Panthers are prepared to offer $850,000.

Panthers chief executive Brian Fletcher said he’d heard Luai had been offered as much as $1.4 million a season to leave, although $1.2 million is probably closer to what he’ll get if he goes to the Tigers. Even at that price, Luai is still a huge gamble.

JOSEPH MANU

Age: 27

Position: Centre/fullback

Estimated worth: $900,000 to $1.1 million

Crawley’s verdict: If Manu wanted to switch from centre to fullback permanently, he could command $1 million-plus a season at any number of clubs given he’s already in the top five fullbacks on what he’s shown playing for New Zealand.

The issue for interested rivals is his loyalty to the Roosters (where he was on $820,000 this year) is expected to win out over the chase for dollars.

The Dragons have already publicly indicated their desire to recruit Manu as a fullback, and if he was genuine about testing the market, there would be a stack more lining up.

Joey Manu is a rare breed in the modern game in that he refuses to be blinded by the big dollars on offer at rival clubs. Picture: Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images

BRADMAN BEST

Age: 22

Position: Centre

Estimated worth: $700,000 to $800,000

Crawley’s verdict: Expected to knock back interest from the Tigers and sign a three-year deal to stay at the Knights. Was on $550,000 this year but will get about $800,000.

Came of age in 2023 with a barnstorming Origin debut and a strong finish to the season. Best’s issue is that centres just don’t command absolute top dollar in the modern game. Val Holmes was the NRL’s highest paid centre in 2023 on $875,000 just ahead of Joey Manu on $820,000.

Heilum Luki is a young NRL forward with massive potential who has created plenty of interest for his services. Picture: Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images

HEILUM LUKI

Age: 22

Position: Back row

Estimate worth: $650,000 to $750,000

Crawley’s verdict: Has a player option in his favour at the Cowboys for good money but is attracting a lot of interest.

Yet another player in the Dragons’ sights, although any number of clubs would be willing to pay up to $750,000 to land a bloke who has the potential to develop into one of the game’s best back-rowers.

ANGUS CRICHTON

Age: 27

Position: Back row

Estimated worth: $500,000 to $600,000

Crawley’s verdict: Was tipped to make an immediate switch to rugby before that deal fell through. But showed towards the end of the season what a tough and talented back-rower he still is after the issues that followed last year’s World Cup.

Probably not in the same demand as he once was but still up with the best of them when he’s fit and firing.

Angus Crichton has a lot to prove heading into 2024 after a disrupted season for the Sydney Roosters. Photo by Scott Gardiner/Getty Images

ADAM DOUEIHI

Age: 25

Position: Five-eighth/centre

Estimated worth: Currently on $600,000

Crawley’s verdict: Has had a brutal run with three ACL knee injuries and just needs to get back on the field.

Still young enough to recover, but it’s hard to put a fair value on his talent at this point.

Adam Reynolds has been a massive influence on the young Broncos, despite some unfair criticism over his grand final performance. Picture: Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images

ADAM REYNOLDS

Age: 33

Position: Halfback

Estimated worth: $650,000-$800,000

Crawley’s verdict: Expected to stay at the Broncos for another season and is willing to take a pay cut to open up salary cap space to retain Brisbane’s young stars.

Still, Reynolds won’t be going without, with the opportunity for third-party sponsors in the Brisbane market sure to be a significant top up for whatever his value is on the cap.

For all the criticism Reynolds copped for failing to close out the grand final, a lot of it was extremely unfair, and people are quick to forget the Broncos wouldn’t be where they are without Reynolds’ influence on and off the field.

Luke Keary has indicated he wants to play on in 2025 for the Sydney Roosters. Picture: Matt King/Getty Images

LUKE KEARY

Age: 31

Position: Five-eighth

Estimated worth: $750,000 to $850,000

Crawley’s verdict: A three-time premiership winner and a Clive Churchill medallist, Keary showed his courage and class to fight back and play some terrific football last season.

Has indicated he wants to play on in 2025 but you’d expect a final decision to be put off until at some point next year given his concussion history. Would be shocked to see him leave the Roosters.