Matty Johns’ season preview: Andrew is wrong about Trell, key men in premiership race
Matty Johns reveals why the Eighth Immortal, brother Andrew, is wrong about South Sydney recruit Latrell Mitchell. PLUS the men who will decided the premiership.
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Here we go, less than a week and it’s on again.
At this time, all fans are filled with varying degrees of optimism.
As a kid growing up in the early 80s, my Balmain Tigers were more often than not facing a difficult season but it never stopped me dreaming of the semi-finals.
My optimism compared to my posse of mates, who were Parramatta or Manly fans, was more measured.
However, when the mid-80s rolled into ’88 and ’89, my blind faith in the Tigers was rewarded. No titles, but what a ride!
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So who cares if the experts have tipped your team to finish last or in the bottom four, as long as you have hope.
Remember, no one gave Penrith a chance in 2003 or the Wests Tigers in 2005.
Don’t feel guilty about dreaming big, and dreaming even bigger after six schooners.
Anyway, there will be no shortage of great storylines to enjoy this year — even if it turns out that your side stinks.
WILL MITCHELL EXCEL AT FULLBACK?
Brother Andrew has concerns about whether Latrell Mitchell has the conditioning to be a great fullback, but I have more confidence.
The match fitness required to play in the No.1 jersey will come with the more he plays there.
You only have to look at the career of the man with whom he is compared most, Greg Inglis.
GI always got better as the season wore on, and the very nature of the fullback position got him rock-hard fit by the middle of the season.
Mitchell’s power is going to be crucial for Souths.
They play great momentum-based football and Damien Cook is the trigger. But for Cook to get out of dummy-half, the defence needs to be bent back on early tackles and that’s what Mitchell will do.
He isn’t going to be a Billy Slater-type of fullback who has his nose in every play.
Mitchell, like Inglis, will deliver moments of explosive energy and brilliance.
THE ROOSTERS ARE NOW KEARY’S TEAM
Will Luke Keary take the Roosters to the triple?
When Cooper Cronk was missing last season, Keary would assume the centrepiece playmaker role and he excelled.
Even when Cronk played, you could see in the back half of the season that he was relinquishing more and more quality ball to his halves partner, so Keary is primed to take the reins.
The Roosters have lost some quality but key men such as Keary and James Tedesco continue to get better.
In any case, coach Trent Robinson has built a tough culture at the Roosters which doesn’t rely on the individual. The strength of his team is the team itself.
However, keeping Keary healthy is crucial.
Cronk and Keary could carry the load when the other was missing but it would put enormous pressure on young Kyle Flanagan if Keary had a stint on the sidelines.
CAN O’BRIEN MAKE THE KNIGHTS GREAT AGAIN?
Newcastle coach Adam O’Brien couldn’t have had a better coaching apprenticeship, if I can call it that.
He worked under Craig Bellamy in the Storm system for many years before switching to Robinson’s Roosters last season and learning a new path to success.
Since O’Brien took on the role of attack coach, his teams have only ever finished first or second.
But being a head coach is a different challenge. The pressure intensifies and pressure can do strange things to people.
Former coach Chris Anderson has a saying: “You really don’t know what sort of coach you are until the first time you lose three in a row and you have to find a way out.”
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O’Brien takes control of a talented team that is in desperate need of a harder edge.
Midway through last season they looked to be headed for the top four until they hit a rough patch. Rather than binding tight, they imploded.
By all reports, O’Brien has ramped up the physical conditioning and spoken about making the players “uncomfortable”.
On talent this squad is a top-four team, but between the ears is most of the improvement lies.
The draw gives the Knights a great opportunity to get off to a flying start but the real test will come when they have to fight through a difficult stretch.
CAN MOSES TAKE PARRA TO THE TITLE?
There is a lot of expectation around the Eels and in recent years they have struggled to meet it, but this squad looks well-equipped to handle the pressure.
In the back half of last year, Mitchell Moses took his game to another level. And judging by his display in the Penrith trial, he will enjoy another big year.
I love his combination with Dylan Brown. Brown has serious talent but also great maturity for a player so young.
Importantly, Brown doesn’t overplay his hand and lets Moses be the dominant half. He complements, not competes.
The next step for Parramatta is not just beating the top teams but beating them in all conditions.
What I mean is, Parramatta love to move the football around and look brilliant in dry games at 4pm.
However, in night games against the likes of Melbourne and the Roosters, when the ball is greasy and the passing difficult, they become frustrated because they still want to play sideline-to-sideline and it gives the opposition an advantage.
Establishing a gritty style that wins these tough matches will turn the Eels into true title threats.
WILL CLEARY TAKE THE NEXT STEP?
Nathan Cleary has experienced what a lot of the young and talented experience.
You arrive on the scene and your youth buys you 12 months in which everyone sees your strengths and to an extent ignores your shortcomings.
That soon changes.
The knock on Cleary is that he doesn’t create enough, and whether that criticism is fair or unfair will be determined this season.
With James Maloney now driving teammates mad in Catalonia, Cleary will take control of the Panthers and his creative output will be put to the test.
I thought Cleary was very good in the trial against Parramatta. He looked comfortable and confident taking on the Eels’ middle defenders.
Api Koroisau will be great for Cleary. Hookers who get out of dummy-half regularly force halves to play straight and aggressive.
This is a huge year for Cleary. The ability of the Panthers’ young roster to match it with hard-headed top-four types such as the Roosters and Melbourne will hinge on his ability to not only create more, but control more.
CAN CROFT OWN THE BRONCOS?
What’s most crucial for Brodie Croft is not to lose sight of what his game is about.
Croft is a run-first, pass-second footballer. All his best stuff stems from him running at bigger-bodied middle defenders.
When he tries to finesse the football, he gets himself in trouble.
Croft’s style should suit the Broncos.
Brisbane are the most north/south team in the competition. The more they move the football, the worse they look.
The last thing you want after Payne Haas makes 15m and gets off a two-second play-the-ball is to have a playmaker shovel the ball towards the touchline.
You want a half who attacks the retreating defence and that’s what Croft is good at doing, even if he forgets that at times.
If he plays this way, and can own the end of sets with quality kicking, he will have a strong season and so will the Broncos.
WILL HOLMES PICK UP WHERE HE LEFT OFF?
I expect Val Holmes to have a great season but I think the first month will be difficult.
To do 12 months in the NFL system — where the onus is on speed, strength and power — and then return to the NRL — where aerobic fitness is so critical, particularly at fullback — is a tough transition.
Cowboys coach Paul Green has apparently nursed him through the pre-season, resisting the temptation to try to get him rugby league-fit too fast and risk injury.
Interviewing him at Fox Sports in late January, I was surprised by the extra muscle Holmes was carrying.
But here’s the thing, class is permanent and fitness develops.
Like Mitchell, the very nature of playing fullback will have Holmes back to peak NRL fitness a month or so in — and that’s when his season will really start to get going.
IS WILLIAMS ANOTHER ENGLISH SUCCESS STORY?
I’m really looking forward to watching George Williams play out here.
He was an excellent player for Wigan and has what it takes to make a successful transition to the NRL.
Like a lot of outstanding English halves, Williams is a dangerous runner of the ball.
He’s unorthodox and should resist trying to change his style to suit what he believes an NRL halfback to be, because unorthodox works against highly structured Australian defences.
He was a little rusty against the Bulldogs last weekend but when John Bateman returns, Williams’ right-side combination with his former Wigan teammate will be one of the most dangerous in the competition.
Williams’ ability to dominate out here, as he did in the UK, is a huge factor in Canberra going one better this season.