Matty Johns: NSW may be Origin favourites, but don’t write off the Maroons
The Blues my be overwhelming favourites to win State of Origin 2020, but NSW fans shouldn’t start the party just yet warns Matty Johns.
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No group of players in my time in rugby league have faced a greater challenge, both physically and mentally, than what this State of Origin series presents.
It arrives at the end of an incredibly intense season.
The six-again rule will accelerate the pace of a contest which was already frenetic.
It will be played in the heat of spring.
And they are being asked to do it back-to-back-to-back, with only seven days to recover and go again.
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I honestly don’t know how the grand final players will do it, particularly the winners, Melbourne.
Sure, there’s been Tri-Nations series at the end of seasons, but the players had the time to celebrate, recover, prepare mentally and then play.
If I was asked to play a game, let alone Origin, just over a week after winning the 1997 grand final, I don’t know how I could. And let me be totally honest, I don’t think I’d really want to.
I love the story Mark Geyer told me about the Panthers’ 1991 premiership win, the first in the club’s history, where the whole region joined in the party.
It was about four days into the celebrations, when a Penrith official reminded the players, or maybe even informed them, that in a couple of days they were required to board a jumbo, fly to England and play British champions Wigan at Anfield, Liverpool.
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The players’ reactions varied from horror to disgust. Some players mysteriously lost their passports, Geyer’s was spotted floating down the Nepean River.
A weakened Penrith were soundly beaten with the Panthers players simply moving the party to Merseyside, with the game, the bottom of their priorities.
Similarly the Canberra Raiders — also their maiden title, the epic ’89 victory — flew to England to take on Widnes.
When you watch the match, the Raiders’ opening 30 minutes, it was some of the most scintillating attacking football you’ll ever see, with commentators predicting Widnes were in the midst of a 40-point flogging.
But from that moment the Raiders went from being the Harlem Globetrotters to the Washington Generals, the disinterested Raiders were defeated.
The six again rule has sped the game up dramatically, the wrestle far less prevalent, the middle defenders far more vulnerable.
The speed of the contest will be off the charts.
If a team wrestles, they are penalised with a six again, they play a clean ruck they’ll be run ragged.
And of course, it’s November. When you play a game just four or five degrees warmer, it makes a significant difference energy wise.
Origin’s normally played in the middle of winter, this time with summer in sight, the stress on the player will be huge.
If one team dominates possession, it will be a flogging.
You see fatigue has a far greater effect in defence as opposed to attack.
To put it simply, attack is fun, defence is discipline which requires much energy.
Combine all these factors and you see the challenge which awaits the players.
And they’re expected to do it three times in three weeks.
This is not a whinge, it’s a fact.
Just about all New South Welshmen are expecting a series win, most believe 3-0.
I think it’s going to be an extremely dangerous series for the Blues.
The youth and inexperience of Queensland, which is viewed as a weakness, could easily become their greatest weapon.
For most of these young Maroons, it’s the realisation of a lifetime dream, they couldn’t care if it was played on Christmas Day.
Whereas for many of the Blues players, who are looking to win three series in a row, re- entering the bubble and getting themselves as motivated as the young Queensland side will be a challenge for Brad Fittler.
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Talking to Maroon’s rookie, Harry Grant, last week, he was bubbling with excitement with his selection, a smile, a glint in the eye.
Chatting to a Blues squad member, it was evident his enthusiasm was far more tempered.
Talking about re-entering the bubble, with about as much enthusiasm as an ex-crim going back to the clink.
Wayne Bennett doesn’t take on challenges he believes he can’t win.
Wayne will have Queensland buzzing.
The Queensland narrative has always been about the underdog overcoming the big bad Blues of Sydney.
Even when they’d gone on a history making run, they always seemed to convince themselves they were the outsiders, the besieged, the team nobody gives a chance.
They are in their sweet spot.