Matthew Johns: Ultimate NRL grand final preview between Penrith and Parramatta
Penrith have been the best team all year but Parramatta can cause a grand final boilover — read where the game will be won and lost.
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So often we don’t get the dream grand final.
For instance, the three superstar teams who dominated the 1990s were the Canberra Raiders, Brisbane Broncos and Manly, yet sadly out of these iconic teams, we never got the grand final quinella.
This is a grand final that Sydney has imagined for many years, however for the most part in their histories, they have swapped fortunes.
During Parramatta’s imperial period, early to mid ‘80s, Penrith were battlers, chocolate soldiers. Then the Panthers emerged as a powerhouse as we entered the ‘90s and the Eels slid into a period of cellar-dwelling.
In season 2001, Parra were the dominant force, making the grand final, only to suffer a shock loss. Penrith, meanwhile, finished last that year.
Penrith rebound and out of nowhere win the title in 2003, as Parramatta don’t even play finals. The Eels play in the 2009 grand final, and Penrith finish 11th. And so it goes.
But here we are.
We have got the game we have so often discussed, let’s hope the match lives up to its billing.
THE BUILD-UP
Penrith fans are pumped, but Parramatta’s are in a frenzy.
For the Panthers players, going into their third straight grand final, they know exactly what the week would have entailed and the potential pitfalls.
Parramatta have had to fly blind to an extent. People can tell you what to expect but you have to have experienced it to really understand the pros and cons of all the attention and excitement.
In 1997, our iconic coach Mal Reilly knew a thing or two about big games, having won Challenge Cups in England, Test matches against Australia and back-to-back comps with Manly.
At the beginning of grand final week, more than 4000 fans turned up for our first training session. Reilly pulled us into a tight circle: “We have two options, try and escape the hype or enjoy it. I recommend enjoying it because it takes a lot more energy to try and escape it.”
We enjoyed it. Actually, we loved it. I hope the Eels have as well.
THE LUXURY OF THE UNDERDOG
I’m guessing the Eels have enjoyed the week because, heading into games, the underdog tag is a luxury.
You can see the difference in both teams’ mentality in discussing their intentions.
The Eels have been talking more aggressively, “Looking for collision”, “Taking the game to Penrith.”
Penrith more pragmatic, “Nothing changes for us,” and “We’ll go through our processes.”
I like the way Parramatta are talking, they are speaking emotionally. Upsets are driven by emotion.
DEFENSIVELY – IF I WERE PENRITH
In defence, the primary goal is to eliminate the opposition’s attacking strengths.
Parramatta’s strength is playing through a defence with footwork, and smart one-metre passes. Their short passing has been a feature of this finals series. Look at Reagan Campbell-Gillard’s two tries last week.
Whenever a Parramatta player runs into the defence line, the outside defenders, as a collective, must close in rapidly. Particularly when it’s Mitch Moses.
On Dylan Brown, understand most times it won’t be the man in front who’ll make the tackle, it’ll be the inside defender. That defender needs to be tight and aggressive on the inside.
DEFENSIVELY – IF I WERE PARRA
Okay, let’s just focus on Nathan Cleary’s kicking.
If Parra can force Cleary to have a poor night with the boot, they almost certainly win.
The Eels cannot give Nathan the time he had in week one of the finals, those dead-ball bombs from 50 metres out are matchwinners.
Slow play-the-balls late in the count cut down his time, that’s obvious.
But also think about how you cut down his time.
Teams rush kickers from inside as opposed to outside because they don’t want to give the kicker a numerical advantage and an incentive to run the ball.
Around the halfway area, I’d actually give Nathan the incentive to run, it may cause indecision, and if he does decide to run, it’s the lesser of two evils.
IF I WAS PARRA – ATTACK
The blueprint is working, power running, short passing, a more direct attack.
What’s imperative is that amongst all the excitement and adrenaline early, you don’t beat yourselves.
Gotta be patient. Don’t try and win the game in the opening 20 minutes. However, give your opposition the opportunity to beat themselves.
Don’t waste possession, kick long, chase hard and defend aggressively.
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IF I WAS PENRITH – ATTACK
Parra have been telling us all, they want collision, they want to defend aggressively. Use that against them.
Isaah Yeo, with clever ball playing, make the Eels’ defence sit rather than rush, getting his fellow forwards one-on-one tackles.
And just like Dylan Edwards did two weeks back, frustrate the Eels’ middle men by getting the outside backs to lead the yardage.
Parra want collision, deny them that.
THE X-FACTOR
For Penrith, it’s obvious the key men are Cleary and Yeo, but expect a huge game from Brian To’o. Grand finals are 90 per cent grind and graft and this is tailor-made for Brian. I expect him to run for more than 250 metres.
For Parramatta, Shaun Lane has been a standout. His size creates mismatches on his edge and his offloads are one of Parramatta’s biggest weapons.
RESIST THE PANIC
This applies to the Eels more than Penrith.
Don’t think everything is going to be perfect — there’s going to be errors, there’s going to be defensive misreads, and you may well find yourself eight points down.
You need to stay the course.
In 1997, right on halftime we conceded a try because of a defensive error which put us behind by eight. We got perilously close to losing the match in the halftime break.
There was finger pointing, some ranting and raving, plenty of frustration, and growing panic.
But the coach settled us, we gathered ourselves, made some adjustments and got on with the job of winning.
In the 1994 grand final, Canterbury got off to a horror start with a dropped ball from the kick-off. Canberra scored soon after and the Bulldogs never recovered.
You have to be able to absorb adversity.
WHO WINS
From the opening round, Penrith has been the standout favourite and given us no reason to think otherwise.
Penrith by 8.
First try scorer: Stephen Crichton.
Clive Churchill Medallist: Nathan Cleary.
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