NRL Round 11 Footy Form: The stats that matter, what’s been backed and where the money is going
The Queensland derby could prove another epic encounter but recent form suggests the halftime result could indicate the winner.
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Check out all the best stats, what’s been backed and where the money is going in order to find a winner.
Cowboys v Broncos
Friday 7.50pm, 1300SMILES Stadium
HOME SICK
Both of Brisbane’s losses this season have come away from home, a 30-28 loss to the Sharks at Cronulla in Round 9 and a 23-22 loss to Penrith at Penrith in Round 3.
COWBOYS HAVE THE EDGE
The Cowboys’ 12 wins from 44 starts against Brisbane is their worst record against any current opponent, however of late the Cowboys hold the edge with eight of their 12 overall wins coming in their past 15 clashes with the Broncos.
HALFTIME GLORY
The team that has led at halftime in this fixture has gone on to win nine of the past 11 matches in Townsville. Only one match has seen the two teams level at halftime — Round 15, 2012, when scores were level at 0-0 at halftime and the Cowboys went on to win 12-0.
HOME SIDE ADVANTAGE
The Cowboys have won their past seven and 14 of their past 16 matches at home, scoring 30 points or more in nine of those wins. Since 2014 no team has a better home record than the Cowboys — they have won 26 of 31 games (84 per cent) scoring an average of 29 points per game.
Betting summary: Customers think this will be a close match up with Brisbane well supported in the 1-12 Margin.
Latest TAB market update for Cowboys v Broncos
Tigers v Knights
Saturday 3pm, Campbelltown Stadium
DREADFUL DEFENCE
This week will see the two worst defensive teams so far this season go head to head. While the Knights have conceded a whopping 35.5 points and 6.2 tries per game (easily the most), the Tigers aren’t too far behind them conceding 27.5 points and 4.9 tries per game.
SHORT SPURTS
The Wests Tigers have dominated the first 20 minutes of games this season, scoring 78 points, the most of any team in this period. The same cannot be said for the opening 20 minutes of the second half, conceding 110 points, the most of any team in this period.
POINTS AT A PREMIUM
The Knights have scored a total of just 10 points in their past four matches and have been held scoreless in three of these games, including their past two. Only one team in Premiership history has failed to score in three consecutive matches, Cronulla in mid-2014.
TAYLOR’S BOGEY TEAM
Already under immense pressure, Jason Taylor will be looking to better his record against both the Knights and their coach Nathan Brown. Taylor has won just three of nine matches against Newcastle in his history as a coach and is yet to win his first game against them at the Tigers. Plus he has won just two of five matches coaching against Nathan Brown.
Betting summary: Punters think the Tigers will cover the line as most of the money is with them at -8.5.
Latest TAB market update for Tigers v Knights
Warriors v Raiders
Saturday 5.30pm, Yarrow Stadium, New Plymouth
CAN THE WARRIORS GO FOR SIX?
The Warriors have won five straight matches against the Raiders, by an average margin of almost 30 points. Their record in New Zealand is much better, having won 12 of 19 matches against Canberra, including nine of their past 11.
TEACHER’S PET
The Warriors are receiving the most penalties of any team at 9.7 per game and have made the most of these penalties, scoring 36 per cent of their tries in the set after a penalty this season.
FIFTY FIFTY
All four of the Warriors’ wins this season have come when they have had more than 50 per cent possession. They are one of just two teams (along with the Cowboys) who have failed to win this season when having 50 per cent possession or less.
TRY TIME
Shaun Johnson has six tries in seven games against the Raiders, with all of these coming in his past four games against them. His only career hat-trick came against Canberra in Round 25, 2013 at Mt Smart — the same game as Jarrod Croker’s. To Score A Try: $2.10; 1st Tryscorer: $13.
Betting summary: Punters are leaning slightly towards Canberra with money running 60 per cent in their favour.
Latest TAB market update for Warriors v Raiders
Sharks v Sea Eagles
Saturday 7.30pm, Southern Cross Stadium
HOME SIDE DISADVANTAGE
After Cronulla won 10 straight matches from 1987-2006 against Manly, the Sharks have since lost seven of their past eight matches against them at home, with their only win coming in Round 3, 2012 in a 17-14 victory.
CLOSE FINISH
Five of the past eight matches between these teams at Shark Park have been decided by seven points or less.
HOME AWAY FROM HOME
Manly have won three of four away games this season. Going back to last season they have won seven of their past eight away games.
TRY TIME
Valentine Holmes has scored 28 tries in just 41 NRL matches. His four-try effort last week against Newcastle was the first time he has scored more than two tries in a match. Holmes has scored nine tries in 10 matches this season. To Score A Try - $1.50; 1st Try Scorer - $7; To Score and Win: Holmes 1+ Try/Cronulla win - $1.95.
Betting summary: TAB customers think this fixture will be a close contest, showing support for Cronulla 1-12 in the Margin.
TAB latest market update for Sharks v Sea Eagles
Panthers v Titans
Sunday 2pm, Pepper Stadium
MIGHYT MARGIN
Eleven of the 13 matches between these two teams have been decided by 13 points or more, with four of the past five by more than 20 points.
HOME SIDE ADVANTAGE
Penrith have won five of their past seven home games. When Penrith lose at home, it tends to be close with their past two losses being by five and two points — to the Bulldogs in Round 2, 18-16 and to the Cowboys in Round 6, 23-18.
SLOW STARTERS
The Titans have scored 84 of their 196 points in the final 20 minutes of matches, which is second in the NRL during this period only behind the Cowboys (101 points).
LOOK OUT PENRITH
William Zillman scored two tries and had eight tackle busts in his last meeting against the Panthers in Round 7 last season. He ran for a total of 259 metres in the match, which is the third time in his career he has run for over 200m against Penrith.
Betting summary: The Line has been well supported here with customers favouring Gold Coast +10.5.
TAB latest market update for Panthers v Titans
Bulldogs v Roosters
Sunday 4pm, ANZ Stadium
BOGEY TEAM
The Bulldogs have lost their past four matches against the Roosters, all by double figure margins. Since 2013 the Bulldogs have won just one of seven against the Roosters, easily their worst record against any opponent in that period.
KICK AND SCORE
The Roosters have relied heavily on kicks to score this season with 13 of their 30 tries (43 per cent) coming via a kick, easily the highest percentage of any team.
HOME SIDE BLUES
The Bulldogs’ 21-20 win against the Titans in golden point in Round 8 was their first and only win as the home team this season. They have conceded at least 20 points in all four home games.
TRY-SCORING MACHINE
Curtis Rona has scored 19 tries in 19 career games at ANZ Stadium including five in his past four games there. He has scored a try in each of his two career games against the Roosters.
Betting Summary: The Bulldogs are holding twice as much money in the Head To Head Market than the Roosters. TAB bookies have been forced to shorten the Bulldogs’ price from $1.75 into $1.55.
TAB latest market update for Bulldogs v Roosters
Eels v Storm
Monday 7pm, Pirtek Stadium
MIGHTY MELBOURNE
Melbourne have dominated this fixture of late having won six of the past nine matches dating back to the 2009 Grand Final. However Parramatta won the most recent clash in Round 14 last season.
CLOSE CONTEST
At Pirtek Stadium these teams cannot be split having won seven games each, however the Eels have won four of the past six — all four decided by six points or less.
MONDAY NIGHT MADNESS
Since 2007 Melbourne have the best overall record on a Monday night winning 60 per cent of its matches; however of late the Storm have struggled winning just three of their past nine in the time slot.
LOOK OUT PARRAMATTA
Marika Koroibete has a great record against Parramatta with seven tries in four games against them, his best tally against any team.
Betting Summary: Marika Koroibete is holding 20 per cent of the early money in the First Try Scorer Market.
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