NRL finals race: Sharks face nervous final three weeks
They’ve lost two of their most important players and face a Warriors team that’s desperate to steal a place in the finals – are the Sharks on shaky ground heading into the final three games of the season? Check out the run home for each team here.
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Just three games remain in the regular season of the NRL, and we may already have the top four and top eight sides locked in.
As all eyes turned to Sonny Bill Williams and his triumphant return to the Roosters on the weekend, the fact that a Raiders loss meant they’d likely lose a double chance in the finals slipped under the radar.
Now sitting a game behind the Roosters and with a huge points differential disadvantage, they likely have to win all three games against the Dragons, Warriors and Sharks – and hope the Roosters slip up up twice in their run home – to have any chance of top four.
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At the other end of the top eight, only the 8th-placed Sharks face shaky ground with the Tigers and Warriors two games behind them.
With a horror run home against the Warriors, Roosters and Raiders, three losses could them slip out, with the only saving grace that the Tigers (Rabbitohs, Storm, Eels) and the Warriors (Sharks, Raiders, Sea Eagles), all face tough runs as well.
Check out the full run down here as we hit the final month of the regular season.
1st - Penrith Panthers (31 points, +224)
Run home: Eels (home), Cowboys (away), Bulldogs (away)
Analysis: The J.J. Giltinan Shield is headed to Penrith for the first time since 2003, if the Panthers can overcome their fiercest rival, Parramatta this week. Hardly put in their best performance against Brisbane last week and need to be wary of complacency creeping in at the wrong time.
Prediction: 1st
2nd - Melbourne Storm (28 points, +222)
Run home: Cowboys (home), Tigers (home), Dragons (away)
Analysis: Down on troops again but somehow still managed to overcome a surging South Sydney outfit last week. Craig Bellamy could receive a huge boost with the return of Nelson Asofa Solomona against North Queensland. A slip up or two from the Panthers could see the Storm steal the minor premiership.
Prediction: 2nd
3rd - Parramatta Eels (26 points, +104)
Run home: Panthers (away), Broncos (home), Tigers (away)
Analysis: Storm’s win against the Rabbitohs really put a dent in the chance of a top two finish. Even if Brad Arthur’s men win every game and other results go their way, their points differential won’t help their cause. Fourth place is now more likely than second. Hooker Reed Mahoney is also out ‘indefinitely’ with a shoulder injury.
Prediction: 4th
4th - Sydney Roosters (24 points, +236)
Run home: Knights (home), Sharks (home), Rabbitohs (away)
Analysis: The defending premiers overcame their biggest hurdle on the run home last week against Canberra. Nearing as full strength as possible plus the inclusion of superstar Sonny Bill Williams, the Roosters are bound to leapfrog the Eels into third place, taking one step closer to that history making three-peat.
Prediction: 3rd
5th - Canberra Raiders (22 points, +77)
Run home: Dragons (away), Warriors (home), Sharks (away)
Analysis: To go one better than being last year’s runner up, the Raiders will have to become the first team in the NRL era to win the grand final from outside the top four. If that wasn’t a mammoth enough task, the Raiders might have to do it without their most influential player, Josh Papalii, who suffered a shoulder injury against the Roosters.
Prediction: 5th
6th - Newcastle Knights (21 points, +83)
Run home: Roosters (away), Dragons (home), Titans (away)
Analysis: Adam O’Brien’s men will get to prove their dominant showing against Cronulla wasn’t a fluke against the Roosters. The Knights should be too good for the Dragons and Titans, which should secure 6th spot on the ladder. O’Brien is planning on resting Ponga, it’s a bold move considering how influential the fullback has been.
Prediction: 6th
7th - South Sydney Rabbitohs (20 points, +125)
Run home: Tigers (away), Bulldogs (home), Roosters (home)
Analysis: After a resurgence and five straight wins the Rabbitohs failed to prove their premiership credentials, going down to the Storm. The Roosters hold the key to just where the Rabbitohs will finish on the ladder. A win could see them snare 6th place ahead of Newcastle. Wayne Bennett should welcome back Dane Gagai from a finger injury.
Prediction: 7th
8th - Cronulla Sharks (18 points, +18)
Run home: Warriors (home), Roosters (away), Raiders (home)
Analysis: Without two of their most experienced campaigners in Wade Graham and Chad Townsend suspended for two and three weeks respectively, a tough run home has just been made tougher. The only silver lining is Wests Tigers horror draw and New Zealand’s poor points differential.
Prediction: 8th
9th - Wests Tigers (14 points, -31)
Run home: Rabbitohs (home), Storm (away), Eels (home)
Analysis: A really tough run home will spare the Tigers the indignation of finishing 9th for the fourth time in five years. A gallant win against Manly last week keeps their mathematical chances alive but will no doubt leave Michael Maguire’s me ruing another season of what might have been.
Prediction: 11th
10th - New Zealand Warriors (14 points, -107)
Run home: Sharks (away), Raiders (away), Sea Eagles (home)
Analysis: Can the Warriors become the Cinderella story of the season 2020? Mathematically they can, realistically the resilient outfit will have to knock over both the Sharks and Sea Eagles, which isn’t outside the realms of possibility considering their shaky form. But they will need to score big along the way to catapult into the top eight ahead of the Sharks.
Prediction: 9th
11th - St George Illawarra Dragons (12 points, -29)
Run home: Raiders (home), Knights (away), Storm (home)
Analysis: Let’s face it, the Dragons next three games are more about being an audition in front of incoming coach Anthony Griffin and playing for the pride in the famous Red V. With three rounds left, the Dragons have all but exhausted their points haul potential.
Prediction: 13th
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12th - Manly Sea Eagles (12 points, -116)
Run home: Bulldogs (away), Titans (home), Warriors (away)
Analysis: Des Hasler’s men continued to leak points on the weekend and let a decisive two competition points slip through their fingers against the Tigers. A soft draw could see them save face and finish as high as 10th but either way, Manly have been a disappointment in 2020.
Prediction: 10th
13th - Gold Coast Titans (12 points, -177)
Run home: Broncos (home), Sea Eagles (away), Knights (home)
Analysis: At this stage the Titans points differential is too big a hole to climb out of even if they win every game leading into the finals. Having said that all three of their opponents have very recently shown defence isn’t their strong point.
Prediction: 12th