Not-so-Super Shot: Accuracy down for two-point thrills in netball revolution

After two years with the two-point rule, new data has exposed how the Super Shot could hurt Australia’s Commonwealth Games hopes.

The Super Shot has led to a decline in shooter accuracy and overall goals scored. Picture: Jaimi Joy/Getty Images

When the two-goal Super Shot was introduced to the Suncorp Super Netball league in 2020, it promised to “evolve” the game of netball and add “an element of thrill to the matches”.

But, two years in, one must ask what the Super Shot has done for our national netball league.

Has it made goalers more brave? Maybe. Has it made the game more thrilling? Admittedly, yes. Has it helped our goalers improve their accuracy from distance? Apparently not.

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According to Champion Data, the official stats provider for the competition, and a new dataset from Deakin University sports scientists, goalers’ long-bomb accuracy has declined by up to 20 per cent since the Super Shot was introduced.

The “In the Zone” dataset – which is part of a fan-led #NetballNumbers initiative – has tracked every shot taken in the Super Netball league since 2018 through to round 6 of 2022.

It also recorded who took them and which of 10 zones the shot was taken in – from left baseline to right baseline, and at short (within 3m of the post) or long (the final 1.9m Super Shot) range.

The data revealed not only which were the most and least popular and successful zones, but uncovered a concerning drop in shooting accuracy and total goals scored across the league.

Since 2020, little more than 53 per cent of goal attempts from Super Shot range have been successful – a drop from the neat 73 per cent success rate in the years before.

Meanwhile, nine in 10 shots taken within 3m of the post were successful and average accuracy increased slightly across the short zones.

Hello and welcome to the final day of iso with #NetballNumbers Vol.7
Had a look at where the most successful place to shoot was. Table 1. shows that those long range shots have caused a decrease in shooting percentages. So is the Super Shot worth it? pic.twitter.com/GkGATp8uOC

— Emily Lacy (@starkidlacy) May 3, 2022

Sport scientist Emily Lacy, whose analysis revealed the decline, said the difference may not be due to any decline in shooters’ raw skill but, rather, “increased attempts taken due to increased reward” of the Super Shot.

But she found the two points awarded for each successful Super Shot haven’t increased the total number of goals scored in the league, either. In fact, teams scored an average of 66 fewer goals each per season in the years after 2020 than before.

“A decrease in total score with a decrease in shooting accuracy suggests that the Super Shot has not been overly successful on the stat sheet,” Ms Lacy said. “Even if it has allowed teams to come from behind and win.

“The decrease in overall goals scored is interesting, because time on court has not changed.”

Ms Lacy said any number of factors could have contributed to the decline: teams passing the ball around the circle more to get into the Super Shot zone, defenders changing tactics, or that the jump in missed goals means more time is spent “getting the ball down the court”.

The pure magic of the super shot in action. Remember netball was fatally flawed and had to be changed to incorporate this. #SSNSwiftsMagpiespic.twitter.com/hmR7f1zOv0

— Erin Delahunty (@della79) April 9, 2022

And with the 2022 Commonwealth Games fast approaching – the first Games since the two-point shot was introduced – many are beginning to wonder what the Super Netball style of play could mean for the Australian Diamonds’ chances.

Former Diamonds captain turned Kayo commentator Laura Geitz is on the fence, but says it will be “interesting” to see how the squad transitions “back to traditional netball” on the international stage.

“I think what’s tricky in netball before the Super Shot (was introduced) – if you put in the hard work and set yourself up then you were in pretty good stead,” Geitz told news.com.au.

“But the Super Shot doesn’t allow that to happen, because you can play so well for 10 minutes of the game and be up five goals and then in one minute that’s gone, basically.”

“I actually think it’s really difficult to know when to play (the Super Shot) and when not to play it. It’s the difference between winning and losing in so many circumstances.

“I can see that there is at times frustration for the coaches and the players, just to know what’s right and what’s wrong.”

It should be noted, though: the seven shooters picked for the Diamonds squad aren’t the league’s most prominent Super Shot shooters. They only shoot 20 per cent of their total goals from Super Shot range and score on almost half of their attempts.

How will the Diamonds adjust in Birmingham? (Photo by Jaimi Joy/Getty Images)

Maybe, just maybe, that can provide space for a huge sigh of relief.

Because though the stats may be alarming at face value, they also seem to reveal a new-found confidence the Super Shot has built in our shooters to take a punt on a long-bomb.

Which, even without two points up for grabs with each attempt, may make for some absolutely thrilling Commonwealth Games matches.

Originally published as Not-so-Super Shot: Accuracy down for two-point thrills in netball revolution