Moneyball: The real Liam Ryan offer, flow-on affect of Nas’ deal, Marshall’s new Geelong link
The flow-on effect of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera’s massive payday will reshape the player market – here’s how. Plus, the real deal put before Liam Ryan, and Rowan Marshall’s Geelong link.
Zak Butters earned $15 million this week without lifting a finger.
The extraordinary inflationary effect of Nas Wanganeen-Milera’s $2 million a season deal changed the game in a heartbeat.
That might sound provocative, but his deal was that powerful because it was effectively 50 per cent higher than any of the deals struck so far across the AFL landscape.
The Nas deal set the market for any of the deals to come, but as his manager Ben Williams conceded on Tuesday morning it also made so many previously huge deals look insignificant.
Footy’s top earners Tom Lynch and Ben McKay have been paid between $1.4m-$1.5m in any given contract year but those deals are not average salary.
Lynch’s deal of around $1m a season was massively back-ended and McKay’s deal of around $800,000 a season was hugely front-ended.
Christian Petracca’s deal averages approximately $1.3m this year, while next year Marcus Bontempelli and Chad Warner will earn around $1.35m.
So a deal that adds 50 per cent extra to the AFL’s top earning capacity in a single year is ridiculous money when you consider the AFL’s average pay rises 37 per cent between 2023-2027.
So Butters will either leave Port Adelaide at the end of next year after they match a free agency bid or he will stay.
But either way he’s getting paid.
The 24-year-old would be asking for an eight-year free agency deal of around $15m – just over $1.8m a season – and he would get them in a heartbeat.
All of a sudden Harley Reid’s $2.2m a season request looks something close to palatable for West Coast given it is the market rate when you take in his expected improvement.
But the real question is what do clubs do with megastars who are hugely underpaid.
What does Collingwood do with Nick Daicos, likely to earn just over $1m this year on a deal that does increase in coming years but get nowhere near $2m?
They can’t increase his contract if they hope to win another premiership.
Sam Darcy will never be defined by money but his four-year deal with incentives clauses to 2029 might be worth around $750,000 a season and he could already be a top-five player in the game.
It is a question of when, not if the Dogs renegotiate that deal signed to give him some security coming off a spate of worrying injuries.
Next year’s free agency list already looks thin but includes Butters, Zac Bailey, Ben King, Jack Buckley and Dylan Moore.
Moves are already being made to sign Buckley and Moore, with King very keen to stay at the Gold Coast.
The salary cap will only go so far, so in a star-driven league clubs will have to make big decisions.
Do they retain more first to third year players on minimum salary, do they tell their plus-30s players they can play on but only on minimum chips?
Clubs like St Kilda have banked salary cap room by paying only 95 per cent of the cap in recent seasons and have saved cap room after missing out on established stars.
But that money will run out for clubs quickly for clubs if they begin paying players $2m a year.
THE SAINTS’ REAL CONTRACT OFFER TO RYAN
Liam Ryan’s contract at St Kilda might still end up in a four-year commitment despite his management’s clap back at reports of a four-season offer on Tuesday.
West Coast’s Ryan is now keen to move to St Kilda given his tight relationship with Saints players including Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera.
While his management denied he had been offered a four-year deal on social media, he could still sign on for three seasons and a game-based trigger.
With the average AFL wage at just over $500,000 a season, he could end up signing on for around $600,000 a season.
The Eagles are aware they cannot offer him a deal of that length given they will not be in the premiership window and need to continue stockpiling draft picks.
Essendon is also keen to get in front of Ryan but has offered only two years and a games-based trigger at this stage.
They would have to up their offer to be in the race for the livewire forward, who turns 29 in October.
Port Adelaide is still keen to secure Ryan, who is in contract to 2026.
The Power might have believed they would be in the box seat if Wanganeen-Milera joined Port Adelaide where Ryan could play with him and good friend Willie Rioli.
So with such a strong market Ryan looks certain to secure a three-year deal at minimum and likely with the trigger for a fourth season.
Ryan averages only 1.2 goals a game in the struggling Eagles offence but also 1.2 direct score assists and 5.2 score involvements a game.
MARSHALL’S NEW LINK TO GEELONG
History is littered with real-estate related trade speculation that often turns out to be wrong.
Richmond’s Liam Baker moved to West Coast after buying a house in Perth, but Chad Warner stayed in Sydney and Matt Rowell re-signed at the Suns despite recently buying properties in their home states.
Now comes the bizarre haircut-related trade speculation.
Spies in the city of Geelong are growing increasingly confident about Rowan Marshall’s links to the club because he often gets his haircut in town.
The link?
His brother Ollie Marshall plays local football for Bellarine Football League club Newcomb, with Portland local Rowan Marshall spending plenty of time in Geelong.
The Cats are coming hard for Marshall and are aware of speculation that he isn’t happy at the Saints and looking around.
But coach Ross Lyon told Seven on Tuesday night he was prepared to hold the line with contracted players even if they wanted to get out.
“We’re not a club that’s going to be walked over,” he said.
“We’re having people talking about our contracted players. You know if you induce people to breach that’s against the law. So we’re not mucking around here.”
HILL A SECRET WEAPON FOR SAINTS
Some St Kilda fans might have quibbled over veteran Brad Hill scoring a three-year extension this time last year, but there won’t be anyone questioning it any more.
Hill, 32, has played 21 games this season as a Saints’ mainstay, but his integral role in driving the Saints’ Indigenous culture undoubtedly played a key role in helping the Saints secure the $2m per season signature of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera this week.
The Saints have made no secret of Hill’s importance in driving the club’s stated aim to become the AFL’s leading First Nations’ club.
Hill’s connection to Wanganeen-Milera is such that he was the only player with him when the star Saint told Ross Lyon and assistant coach Corey Enright he had agreed to repel offers from Adelaide and Port Adelaide to re-sign with St Kilda for two more years.
HAWK AND BULLDOG CALLS TIME ON CAREER
Dual premiership Hawk and grand final Bulldog Taylor Duryea has called time on his AFL career after 229 games, while two-time Richmond flag winner Kamdyn McIntosh will seek a new home after being told his time at Punt Rd is over.
It comes as Fremantle’s Quinton Narkle also announced his retirement after 59 games with Geelong, Port Adelaide and the Dockers.
Duryea told his teammates of his retirement on Thursday after managing only five games this season.
His pride in playing 100 games for both Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs sits alongside the three grand finals he played in as some of his biggest achievements.
“I am obviously proud of the team success I’ve been able to experience at both AFL and VFL level, but I think it’s enduring adversity and overcoming challenges that have made my career so fulfilling,” Duryea said.
“Dealing with injury and form, signing eight one-year contracts or the change of clubs … I’ve always remained consistent in my approach to both the game and the people around me.
“I hope I can leave the game with an earned respect for not just my footy but for how I treated people. I have formed so many wonderful relationships that I’ll forever be grateful for.
“I’m thankful to both Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs for believing in me. I hope I’ve been able to positively impact both clubs who placed faith and trust in me.”
McIntosh, who played in the 2017 and 2020 premierships with the Tigers, has been told he won’t get a new deal with the Tigers.
The unrestricted free agent, 31, has played every game with Richmond this year – for a total of 212 – and is keen to find a new AFL home.
RISING DON INKS CONTRACT EXTENSION
A summer pushing himself through lonely gym sessions has pushed Essendon budding star Archie Roberts to the top of the club’s most promising players, and to a contract extension.
The left-footed rebounder will continue on his path of carrying mentor Dyson Heppell’s No.21 jumper to another stellar career, having signed on at the Bombers until the end of 2028.
Already contracted for next season, the two-year extension brokered by manager Julian Petracca of Connors Sports, was ticked off on Tuesday.
Roberts parlayed a four-game taste of the big time last year into a massive summer and is one of only four Bombers to feature in every game of the season so far.
The Hampton Rovers junior spent hours over summer with Dons backline coach Ben Jacobs on defensive technique, then forced himself to push tin.
‘When the season ends you have six months or so to improve your game and I didn’t really give myself a break,” he said.
“A lot of it was on myself. I didn’t have many people driving me. It was many hours in the gym myself.
“I do give myself a bit of credit for it, because I did drive myself pretty hard and I set myself a goal and I achieved what I wanted to achieve in the off-season.”
Roberts played the instructive four games in 2024 in the No.38 jumper, before Heppell gladly handed over his No.21 when he retired.
Heppell told this masthead in December he expected a breakout season from Roberts, and the youngster has delivered, putting him fourth in betting favouritism for the rising star award.
The two left foot half-backs share plenty of traits, and Roberts’ mature head has him in line to emulate Heppell as a future Bombers skipper.
“Dys was such a great person that I got to meet at the footy club and anyone that was in his path would have been so moved by him and he has such a big impact,” Roberts said.
“For me, he sort of took me under his wing a bit, guided me through his first year alongside players like Sam Durham, Nic Martin and Andy McGrath.
“I got to play one game with him which was pretty cool and now every time I see him we have a good chat and we try to catch up when we can. He has been massive for me and had faith in me to carry on his number which is such a prestigious number for the footy club and what he did for it and I am just glad I can wear it for a few more years.”
Essendon will close out a tumultuous season with a double helping, starting with Carlton on Thursday night and closing with Gold Coast next Wednesday.
The Dons have suffered through 11-straight losses and a win would be a welcome boost before another long pre-season.
“We are not going into games conceding, we are a competitive group, we have a very competitive coaching group and I am driving to win every week,” Roberts said.
General admission tickets to Thursday night’s MCG clash between Essendon and Carlton start at just $7.
KEY DEFENDER EARNS A NEW DEAL
Under-the-radar Gold Coast defender Oscar Adams has inked a new deal after winning over coach Damien Hardwick.
The former Saint was scooped up by the Suns from Glenelg with the seventh pick in May’s mid-season draft on a six month contract, but last week signed a new deal for 2026.
Adams slipped into Hardwick’s defence as a stand-in for Sam Collins in round 17 and has played every game since, quietly filling a third tall defender role.
The 22-year-old spent two years on St Kilda’s list without playing a game before his second AFL shot on the Gold Coast.
FRINGE DEE APPROACHING NEW DEAL
Late-season bloomer Jai Culley is in the final negotiations on a one-year deal after winning over Melbourne brass in three games.
The former Eagle was signed by the Demons over summer when runner Andy Moniz-Wakefield went down with a knee injury, but a foot injury hit in his first weeks at the club and meant he didn’t debut until round 21.
Culley, 22, has not put a foot wrong under two coaches in his three AFL games as a tall winger and a one-year deal to lock him in to 2026 should be completed soon.
JOURNEYMAN CALLS TIME ON CAREER
Footy journeyman Quinton Narkle will move to Darwin with his family after calling time on his AFL career.
Narkle played 59 games across three clubs after making his debut for Geelong in 2018.
He finished with 41 games at the Cats (2018-2022), 16 at Port Adelaide (2023-24) and two at the Dockers this year.
“I’m feeling quite content with the decision and I’m looking forward to what’s ahead in a place that’s very special to us,” Narkle said.
“I’m very grateful that I’ve played AFL for so long and I’d like to thank the three clubs that gave me a chance. I feel so lucky that I got to be a part of strong clubs with winning cultures.
“I got to play with great players and people I’ll be friends with for the rest of my life.
“Running out with Sam Powell-Pepper and Shai Bolton was a dream come true after being boarders together at Wesley College and playing WA 18s.
“I never got all the way to an AFL Grand Final, but I played in two preliminary finals and it’s those big finals games that I’ll remember forever. “My AFL career has definitely had some ups and downs, and I’d like to thank my mum, my siblings, my partner Taylah – and our girls – for riding the wave with me.”
Originally published as Moneyball: The real Liam Ryan offer, flow-on affect of Nas’ deal, Marshall’s new Geelong link
Reds desperate to avoid third straight defeat
