Melbourne’s victory all but settles top eight, flicking the switch on Port Adelaide’s finals dream
PORT Adelaide is virtually condemned to be an also ran in the race to September, needing an unlikely miracle – a win against Essendon and 17th-placed Gold Coast upsetting eighth-ranked Geelong - to be part of the action.
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PORT Adelaide is virtually condemned to be an also ran in the race to September’s AFL finals.
Melbourne’s 17-point win against West Coast in Perth – the Demons’ first win of the season against a top-eight rival – has all but settled the top-eight for next month’s finals.
It leaves Port Adelaide needing an unlikely miracle – a win against Essendon at Adelaide Oval on Friday and 17th-placed Gold Coast upsetting eighth-ranked Geelong at Kardinia Park on Saturday.
Richmond, with its first minor premiership since 1982, West Coast, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Sydney, Melbourne, GWS Giants and Geelong should be the eight sides to play for the flag.
Geelong is almost a certainty to reach the 13 wins by beating the hapless Suns.
It is unrealistic to expect the Suns can upset Geelong at the Cattery when Gold Coast has lost all four visits to Kardinia Park by an average of 85 points.
At best, the Power can be 13-9 – and sharing this win-loss count with the higher-ranked Melbourne (if the Demons lose to the Giants at the MCG) and Geelong (if the Cats beat the Suns at home). But Port Adelaide would miss the top eight with its inferior percentage.
North Melbourne fell out of finals contention yesterday with its nine-point loss to Adelaide at Adelaide Oval.
There could be no SA team in the finals for the first time since 2011 when Adelaide ranked 14th (7-15) and Port Adelaide was 16th (3-19).
The finals will begin with:
RICHMOND at the MCG in a qualifying final against the fourth-ranked team. This is likely to be either Sydney or Hawthorn. These sides will be a vital finals-defining match-up at the SCG on Saturday night.
WEST COAST at Perth Stadium in a qualifying final if the Eagles finish the home-and-away season with 16 wins – by beating Brisbane at the Gabba on Sunday.
This will be against the third-ranked team, most likely Collingwood that plays in Perth this weekend against also-ran Fremantle.
COLLINGWOOD can still claim second spot – and force the Eagles to the MCG for a qualifying final – by beating the Dockers and relying on the Lions upsetting West Coast.
SYDNEY and HAWTHORN are in a playoff for a top-four finish and qualifying final against AFL premier Richmond. The loser of Saturday night’s match at the SCG is destined to claim hosting rights for an elimination final, most probably from sixth spot.
MELBOURNE and GWS are in a duel for fifth spot – and hosting rights to the elimination final against the eighth-placed team.
GEELONG can rise to seventh by thrashing the Suns – and relying on the injury-battered Giants beating Melbourne at the MCG.
michelangelo.rucci@news.com.au
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Originally published as Melbourne’s victory all but settles top eight, flicking the switch on Port Adelaide’s finals dream