Mathematically possible: Unpacking the NBL’s four-round finals logjam as every team is able to make the postseason
Four games remain in the NBL season and five teams seem a lock for playoff action, but one could come from the clouds. MATT LOGUE AND MICHAEL RANDALL chart the run to the playoffs
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All 10 teams can still mathematically make the top six finals positions with four rounds remaining. That’s the remarkable situation facing the NBL in the run home to the 2023/2024 finals.
Melbourne and Perth are the clear benchmarks and have created a gap at the top, but it’s incredibly tight between the chasing pack.
From third place down to tenth, there is only a two-game win difference.
The last-placed South East Melbourne have lost 14 games, including nine of their last 10 by an average of 22.4 points and, facing the toughest run home of any team without star Alan Williams, the play-in is but a dream.
Adelaide has the same record as the Phoenix (9-14), but the 36ers are coming off consecutive wins and look more than capable of continuing their fairytale run all the way to a top-six berth.
It sets up a captivating final four rounds — and based on this season’s unpredictable results — anything could happen.
1: MELBOURNE UNITED (16 wins, 6 losses)
Run home:
Bullets (A)
Kings (A)
Phoenix (H)
Breakers (H)
Taipans (A)
Hawks (H)
Prediction: First. United remain the NBL’s benchmark team, although they’ll be keen to respond, especially after last round’s big loss to Tasmania. Perth is also coming home fast on the back of six straight wins and could easily overtake United on the ladder if they’re not careful. The run home looks reasonable for Melbourne, with their remaining six games against teams outside the top three.
2: PERTH WILDCATS (15 wins, 7 losses)
Run home:
Hawks (H)
Phoenix (A)
Breakers (H)
Taipans (H)
Hawks (A)
JackJumpers (A)
Prediction: Second. Calls for coach John Rillie’s head seem a lifetime ago, with the Wildcats purring along following six straight wins. Rillie’s main tweak to the line-up has worked: get the ball into gun guard Byrce Cotton’s hands, and the rest will take care of itself. Cotton has dropped double figures in his past six games, including a 34-piece against the Phoenix, to put one hand firmly on this season’s MVP trophy. The Wildcats have a decent run home, with a chance to go into the playoffs on the back of 12-straight victories.
3: TASMANIA JACKJUMPERS (12 wins, 11 losses)
Run home:
Breakers (A)
Taipans (A)
36ers (H)
Phoenix (A)
Wildcats (H)
Prediction: Third. The JackJumpers have been like a yoyo in NBL24. At their best, like last round against United, they look unbeatable. At their worst, the JackJumpers don’t look close to championship contenders. On the plus side, Tasmania has a good run home against teams below them on the ladder, apart from a final-round blockbuster in Perth.
4: BRISBANE BULLETS (12 wins, 12 losses)
Run home:
United (H)
Hawks (A)
36ers (H)
Breakers (A)
Prediction: Fifth. Rookie head coach Justin Schueller deserves huge praise for guiding Brisbane into the top four. The Bullets have defied the pre-season predictions, but the job isn’t done yet, especially with a chasing pack of teams just behind. Brisbane only has four games left in the regular season, so they need to make every moment count. The Bullets’ draw to finish is challenging. United at home, Hawks away and the 36ers at home. The final two games could ultimately decide their finals fate.
5: SYDNEY KINGS (11 wins, 12 losses)
Run home:
Phoenix (A)
United (H)
36ers (A)
Hawks (H)
Phoenix (A)
Prediction: Fourth. Sydney has slipped to fifth on the ladder and, while there are legitimate concerns about their defensive struggles, the Kings possess the talent to fight their way out of this hole. A solid run home should help their cause. Two games against the battling Phoenix could be percentage boosters and massive home games against United and the Hawks will be decisive.
6: CAIRNS TAIPANS (11 wins, 13 losses)
Run home:
36ers (A)
JackJumpers (H)
Wildcats (A)
United (H)
Prediction: Eighth. Cairns have been too inconsistent this season and it’s a trend that is likely to cost them a spot in the six. The Taipans only have four games left this season and they’re all tough. Adelaide on the road, JackJumpers at home, before finishing with the NBL’s two best teams in Perth and Melbourne. Although they’ve lifted against the ladder leaders in both meetings this season. The Snakes face a tough slide down the ladder.
7: NEW ZEALAND BREAKERS (9 wins, 12 losses)
Run home:
JackJumpers (H)
Hawks (A)
Wildcats (A)
Hawks (H)
United (A)
Bullets (H)
36ers (A)
Prediction: Ninth. It’s been a frustrating season for New Zealand, largely plagued by injury. The Breakers have seven games to finish the regular season. The talent is there but, a little like the Taipans, they’ve been wildly inconsistent and a lack of balance in the roster has hurt.
8: ILLAWARRA HAWKS (9 wins, 12 losses)
Run home:
Wildcats (A)
Breakers (H)
Bullets (H)
Breakers (A)
Kings (A)
Wildcats (H)
United (A)
Prediction: Seventh. Illawarra’s revival under interim coach Justin Tatum has been remarkable, but we’re tipping the run to fall just short. The Hawks dangerously look like they’ve crashed back to earth with three consecutive losses and will need to find a way to turn things round again if they are to book an unlikely finals spot.
9: ADELAIDE 36ERS (9 wins 14 losses)
Run home:
Taipans (H)
Kings (H)
JackJumpers (A)
Bullets (A)
Breakers (H)
Prediction: Sixth. Adelaide’s loss column doesn’t help, but the 36ers have a favourable run home. Three of the five games are at Adelaide Entertainment Centre, while their two away clashes are winnable based on their current form. No one would have predicted the Sixers’ turnaround when they sacked CJ Bruton in early December but interim coach Scott Ninnis has the City of Churches daring to dream.
10: SOUTH EAST MELBOURNE PHOENIX (9 wins, 14 losses)
Run home:
Kings (H)
Wildcats (H)
United (A)
JackJumpers (H)
Kings (H)
Prediction: 10th. South East Melbourne mathematically remain in the finals mix, but, realistically, their season is done. The run home is a nightmare but Mike Kelly’s squad will be hunting for a couple of big scalps to help them take momentum into NBL25.
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