Zeyrek to continue his hot autumn form with a win in the Neville Sellwood Stakes
Imported gelding Zeyrek has been superb in his two runs this campaign and is favoured to take out the Neville Sellwood Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday.
Horse Racing
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Team Hawkes don’t have a Group 1 runner but the stable can still make a real impact on the final day of the Golden Slipper Festival at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
Zeyrek can get the Hawkes stable away to a winning start when he contests the Group 3 $200,000 Neville Sellwood Stakes (2000m).
TAB Fixed Odds price assessors have installed Zeyrek as the $4.20 favourite after the gelding ran down Cross Talk when resuming then endured a tough but still closed fast to just miss Protagonist in the Sky High Stakes two weeks ago.
“He has come up really well this autumn,” Hall of Fame trainer John Hawkes said of Zeyrek.
“This looks a nice race for him and hopefully he can continue with his good form.”
Zeyrek is 35th in order of entry for the Group 1 $4 million Doncaster Mile (1600m) at Royal Randwick next week but Hawkes isn’t looking beyond Saturday’s race.
Similarly, stablemate Bandersnatch is 42nd in the Doncaster order of entry but he can secure a start by winning the Group 3 $200,000 Doncaster Prelude (1500m).
“Bandersnatch is an honest horse, he is always thereabouts,” said Hawkes, who trains in partnership with his sons Michael and Wayne.
“He tries hard and has a go, which is all you can ask. There are no plans with him to be quite honest, it is all about how he goes in the Prelude.”
Bandersnatch is prominent in early Prelude betting at $8.50 with another Team Hawkes-trained runner, Mount Popa at $41 behind Cross Talk at $3.90 favouritism.
The Hawkes stable also has the smart Clemenceau ($8) challenging for favouritism in the Group 3 $200,000 Star Kingdom Stakes (1200m) where stablemate Flying Crazy is rated a $34 chance.
The Hawkes-trained More Secrets might be over the odds at $23 for the Group 2 $250,000 Emancipation Stakes (1500m).
“More Secrets is in the mix there somewhere,” Hawkes said.
“She’s another who tries hard and will handle a soft track if that’s what we get. She’s a rough chance in an open race.”
THE BEST BARRIERS
The best barriers at Rosehill Gardens for the last three years (in order of wins)
1200m: 2,1,7,5
1300m: 2,5,9,1
1400m: 5,2,6,1
1500m: 5,1,4,6
2000m: 2,4,6,1
2400m: 1,6,2,3
THE BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS
Race 1: Astero $4.60-$4, Mydeel $51-$14
Race 2: The Years $4.20-$3.40 including a $5,000 wager at $3.70, Miss Ghent $26-$10 with a bet of $2,000 at $19, Waverley $26-$10
Race 3: Stroke Of Luck $4.60-$4.20, Major Beel $6-$4.80
Race 4: Sunshine Rising $4.60-$4.40, Third Realm $8-$6.50
Race 5: Weona Smartone $8-$6.50
Race 6: Statement $6-$4
Race 7: Prowess $2.80-$2.70 including a bet of $2,600 at $2.50
Race 8: Gold Trip $4.60-$4.20 with a big bet of $20,000 at $4.40, Cleveland $11-$7, Arapaho $26-$11
Race 9: Waterford $8-$6.50 with bets of $2,000 at $7.50, $3,000 for the place at $2.40
Race 10: Substantial $8-$4.20 including a wager of $2,000 at $4.60, Maotai $6-$5
EARLY QUADDIE
Race 3: 2,3,4
Race 4: 1,4,5,6
Race 5: 1,3,10,14
Race 6: 6,7,14,16
QUADDIE
Race 7: 1,2,3,7
Race 8: 1,3,9,14
Race 9: 4,5,12,15
Race 10: 6,7,11
TRIAL POINTERS
Gear Up (race 4) is a son of Teofilo, the same sire as Happy Clapper, Humidor, Kermadec and the Melbourne Cup winner, Cross Counter. Bred in Ireland, Gear Up won five of his 14 starts in England in Ireland respectively; his best performance being his win in the 2022 Ballyroan Stakes where he defeated Cleveland who runs in the Tancred on Saturday for Joseph O’Brien. As for Gear Up, he has been tuned up for his Australian debut with a couple of trials at Warwick Farm in recent weeks in deep heats and pleasing in both.
Substantial (race 10) adds considerable interest to Saturday’s Cleanaway Handicap (1400m) to close out Tancred Stakes day at Rosehill Gardens. The Peter and Paul Snowden-trained gelding arrives in Australia with a record of nine starts for three wins, three seconds and a third - all of them in England. The lightly-raced five-year-old could not have been any more impressive when finishing alongside In The Congo in their 1050m barrier trial at Rosehill on March 7. Appears to have drawn well in the middle of the field and has met with some solid early support with the TAB Fixed Odds.
SECTIONAL STARS
Waverley (race 2) is a John Sargent-trained son of Prix Morny winner No Nay Never out of a Redoute’s Choice mare who won up to 1800m. This colt, who is stamped with the famous ‘RK’ brand, was bought from Newhaven Park’s Magic Millions National Yearling Sale draft in 2022 for $80,000. Waverley has caught the attention in both of his 1100m starts to open his career, running through the line with purpose and indicative of a horse seeking 1400m.
Bacchanalia (race 5) took his earnings beyond $400,000 when taking out the Bert Lillye Stakes on the Kembla Grange Classic card on March 10. The James Cummings-trained gelding tagged the leader for the most part, drawing level at the 200m and edging clear late. Four of Bacchanalia’s five career wins have been at 1200m, the same distance as Saturday’s Group 3 Star Kingdom Stakes where the great grandson of VRC Oaks winner, Bulla Borghese, has drawn favourably.
BEST BET
Cross Talk (race 9) goes to the Doncaster Prelude off a very strong win in the Newcastle Stakes. He led throughout, breaking clear of his rivals before the home turn held on to win comfortably. Fitter for two runs from a spell, should be able to get control of this race early and the likelihood of a track surface with some give is also in his favour. He ticks all the boxes and is clearly the one to beat.
VALUE BET
Miss Ghent (race 2) made her debut against older horses and smashed them to win by more than three lengths. It was only a maiden class race but Miss Ghent’s win was very impressive, particularly as she powered through the line to win by a widening margin. The 1400m won’t be any issue for this daughter of Dundeel and at odds of around $10 she is great each way value.
THE JUDGMENT
R7: Vinery Stud (2000m)
Richard Haynes (TAB): “Kiwi filly Prowess comes here with a lofty reputation and I think it will be justified. She arrives at Rosehill Gardens a very fit and in form filly having won her last four starts, her most recent at Group 1 level. Pavitra was outstanding at Kembla Grange last start and looks the testing material. She’ll roll along near the speed and will likely try and get her opposition out of their comfort zones before turning for home. The other Kiwi filly, Polygon seems big odds. She is only second-up here but she won a Group 2 at 2000m last preparation. Call Di comes through Kembla Grange, she’s a long striding daughter of Frankel who should relish the 2000m. We know how classy Fireburn is on her day.”
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “Pavitra absolutely brained half this field last start at Kembla after sitting on speed and looks to do the same here in the run. She did graduate from maiden company to being placed in both the Ethereal, Wakeful and VRC Oaks in the Spring. No doubt the Kiwi filly Prowess is classy but always like to see them first.”
Grant Palmer (bookie): “Looks a race in two between Prowess and Pavitra. Pavitra was okay first up in the Group 2 Millie Fox before absolutely belting them in the Group 3 Kembla Grange Classic. She likes to push forward so Chad Schofield will have options from barrier 9. She goes on top from the NZ filly who is shooting for five straight. The wetter the better for Fireburn but she will need to improve to be in the finish here.”
Michael Sullivan (bookie): “Pavitra ($3.20) for mine looks the number one seed for the Oaks and I think she scoops this on the way through. Looks a really strong filly who trialled up superbly and put a hole in them last start at Kembla running time. Only advantaged by the step to 2000m and she’ll be hard to get past. The NZ visitor Prowess has been best backed early $2.80-$2.60 but one we are happy to lay.”
Rohan Welsh (TAB): “Prowess took a flurry of outlays early, but punters have also taken a liking to Fireburn at the $8 with some decent interest also in Pierossa at double figures.”
Verdict: Pavitra
R8: Kia Tancred Stakes (2000m)
Richard Haynes (TAB): “I keep coming back to Gold Trip, he really is the class of this race. He was left flat footed against Dubai Honour last Saturday and it was the run he had to have to get ready for this very suitable assignment. He’ll settle midfield and you just know he’ll be strong at the business end. Speaking of Melbourne Cup winners, Vow And Declare looks to be going great guns at the moment. I can see him rolling across from that wide draw and getting a comfortable time on the speed. Cleveland for Joseph O’Brien is the clear wildcard, he’s a lightly raced five-year-old that will stay the journey, I’m just not sure how quickly. Montefilia is a great mare and could win this race without surprising.”
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “Hoping some rain arrives and think that Knights Order can dictate here from the front. Just went a little too quick in front last start and the gentler tempo of a 2400m race suits him better. Like many in this on his way to Sydney Cup but banking on him to have just a little bit too much dash in front. Big watch on Explosive Jack with blinkers back on.”
Grant Palmer (bookie): “There has been a sustained push for the Joseph O’Brien trained Cleveland who presents first up in Australia since running in Ireland six months ago. We opened at $11 but the punters didn’t let that last and he is now closer to the $7 mark. The other runner they have come for is Arapaho opened at $26 but the weather forecast looks in his favour and he currently sits at $11. Vow And Declare presents third up after two solid second placings behind Right You Are and he is my on top pick.
Michael Sullivan (bookie): “A very competitive Group 1 and I think best to hunt some value in the race. Stockman appeals at the $17 off what was a good run when ridden upside down in the Sky High. The forecast brings him right into calculations. Arapaho is another that could revel in the conditions and has been a good move early $18-$10. Happy laying Montefilia and Gold Trip.”
Rohan Welsh (TAB): “Gold Trip has been the one punters want since prices went up, attracting more than half the outlays here including a $20,000 bet at $4.40. Montefilia is the only other starter of genuine interest to punters so far.”
Verdict: Gold Trip
R9: Doncaster Prelude (1500m)
Richard Haynes (TAB): “There is plenty of value for the punter here. In saying that I’m with a horse in a good place at the moment, and that’s the favourite Cross Talk. He’s won six from twelve, and you know you are getting a horse that will be on speed and give a good kick when required. I’m very wary of Welwal, he came to our shores with a decent reputation, and he might be ready to fire in a race like this third up. Waterford draws awkwardly but he’s a horse on the rise and could easily overcome that. Diamil gets a good run in the race, and he’ll be much fitter. At big odds don’t let New Mandate get under your guard, he showed good ability at his first Australian campaign and can run a race.”
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “Half the field is resuming with only two runners having had more than two runs this time in. Huge advantage to Cross Talk here for a couple of reasons. Race fitness with him dictating terms in front and if rain arrives that’s his strength. Just ran them into the ground at Newcastle last start and this sets up to be very similar.”
Grant Palmer (bookie): “I can’t fault Waterford’s effort last start after flashing home in a slowly run race. He has drawn the carpark here but it will suit his style as Brett Prebble can take him straight back to last before unleashing with a big run in the straight. His record over 1500m at Rosehill reads 4: 3-1-0. There has been specking for a number of horses at double figure odds including Bandersnatch, Diamil and Welwal.”
Michael Sullivan (bookie): “Cross Talk will be helped by any rain but one we are very happy to lay. Has been found out at this level in the past and this is a deep race. One we will push throughout the trade. Bandersnatch unlucky in both runs this prep and appeals here, already $12-$8. Times Square and Welwal have also both been specked at a price. Very open affair.”
Rohan Welsh (TAB): “Waterford has been the most popular in what has been an open betting affair before race day. Diamil has also attracted attention at double figures. Interest in favourite Cross Talk has been relatively sluggish early with a drift from the opening price of $2.90.”
Verdict: Cross Talk
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