Rival syndicator Luke Murrell says Vauban well under the odds in Melbourne Cup betting
A rival form expert says Melbourne Cup favourite Vabuan is well under the odds in the latest betting on Tuesday’s Flemington contest.
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A rival international form expert says Melbourne Cup favourite Vauban is missing “a one” in front of his price for Tuesday’s $8m event at Flemington.
Australian Bloodstock co-founder Luke Murrell, who has sourced Melbourne Cup winners Protectionist (2014) and Gold Trip (2022), said the Willie Mullins-trained galloper is under the odds in Melbourne Cup betting.
TAB had Vauban at $4 in its Melbourne Cup betting on Sunday afternoon after the gelding started the day at $3.30.
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Murrell said Vauban was among the winning chances in the Melbourne Cup but suggested he was no value for punters.
“He’s a funny one,” he said.
“He’s definitely missing a digit in front of his price, but he can definitely win. He’s one of those tricky horses.
“If we look at his Ascot win, he should be in the $11 to $15 range.”
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Vauban shot to the top of Melbourne Cup markets with his dominant win in a 2186m handicap during the Royal Ascot carnival in June before qualifying for the Cup with a win in a Group 3 win in Ireland in August.
Murrell said Vauban’s Ascot win looked good on the surface but looking at the times out of race showed the gelding’s effort wasn’t as impressive as first thought.
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“If we look at his Ascot win, he should be in the $11 to $15 range,” he said.
“Visually it looked good, but there was no real rating of the race at all.
“He was eased down but if something had gone with him, I don’t think he had another two lengths up his sleeve.
“His sectional (time) that day was very much slower than anything else.
“On his Royal Ascot run, you couldn’t buy him to win a Gosford Cup.”
Murrell said Vauban’s last-start win was much stronger than his Ascot success but that race was run on a much softer surface at Naas.
“His next run was on a (soft) seven or (heavy) eight and that rated very well,” Murrell said.
“But we’re not going to get those conditions here.
“He’s got one rating to his name in a race that was nothing like the conditions he’ll get on Tuesday.
“And on his rating in the similar conditions, he’d struggle to run in the top 10.”
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While Murrell was strong on the fact Vauban was under the odds in the Melbourne Cup, he and business partner Jamie Lovett have had a massive bet of their own in the great race.
The pair combined with trainer Michael Kent Jr to buy French mare Lastotchka after her win over 3100m in a Group 3 race at Longchamp in France on September 3.
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Lastotchka was a late entry for the Melbourne Cup and travelled to Australia alone in a second shipment of Spring Carnival contenders last month.
Murrell said Lastotchka’s honesty made her the right acquisition for the syndicator, irrespective of how she performs in the Melbourne Cup.
“It’s one thing that probably isn’t a good recipe for Australia, a small horse but in her whole career, she’s never put in a bad run,” Murrell said.
“She’s a trier but she’s not an out-and-out two-miler but she’s a last-start Group 3 winner over 3100(m).
“She carries no weight and she’s a 100 per cent trier.
“Firm ground is OK but wet she would have been a genuine top three chance.”
Originally published as Rival syndicator Luke Murrell says Vauban well under the odds in Melbourne Cup betting
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