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Four-Play, Quadzilla: $200 betting strategy for William Reid Stakes day at The Valley

Form analyst Gilbert Gardiner gives his $200 betting strategy and detailed quaddie selections for the William Reid Stakes meeting at The Valley.

Gilbert GardinerGilbert Gardiner
@gilbertgardiner
3 min read
March 22, 2024 - 2:11PM
Spywire has the class to bounce back at The Valley on Saturday. Picture: Grant Peters/Trackside Photography
Spywire has the class to bounce back at The Valley on Saturday. Picture: Grant Peters/Trackside Photography

Herald Sun form analyst Gilbert Gardiner gives his four-play $200 betting strategy and detailed quaddie selections for the William Reid Stakes meeting at The Valley.

FOUR-PLAY

RACE 2: LISTED VALLEY PEARL (1200m)

$50 win SPYWIRE (1) $2.90

Sped out from the carpark draw to cross and lead the field in the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes but paid the price for the effort, tiring to run 11th beaten 3½ lengths. Sweet draw at The Valley on Saturday and has lots of speed and class to get the result. Had not finished outside the top three in four starts prior to the Blue Diamond, including two wins. Placed third in the Magic Millions 2YO Classic behind Golden Slipper favourite Storm Boy.

RACE 6: GROUP 3 ALEXANDRA STAKES (1600m)

$25 each-way GRINZINGER BELLE (1) at $$7/1.95

Great effort first-up at Flemington with victory in the Group 3 The Vanity (1400m). Last start drew wide again and got trapped wide in the early stages of the Group 2 Kewney Stakes. Found cover but raced flat in the straight and held ground. Primed to bounce back third-up and from barrier one should be able to land on the bunny. Wary of VIVY AIR (6), looked a good thing licked last start and respect favourite MOLLYNICKERS (4).

RACE 7: GROUP 2 ALISTER CLARK STAKES (2040m)

$25 each-way APULIA (1) at $8/$2.70

Shame about barrier 14. Honest effort first-up in the Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) but much better suited at 2040m and performed well at The Valley previously. Second-up last campaign, Apulia beaten less than a length behind the promising Fistsoffury. He trained on to win the Moonee Valley Vase (2040m) last spring before being touched off in the Group 1 Victoria Derby.

RACE 8: GROUP 1 WILLIAM REID STAKES (1200m)

$50 quinella IMPERATRIZ (5) and HYPOTHETICAL (9)

Set and forget Imperatriz – a perfect record (4-4) at The Valley including three at the highest level. Wide draw but best sprinter in the country at weight-for-age. Won the race last year by a length from the ever consistent BELLA NIPOTINA (6), respect her again. Hypothetical a mare on the up that only knows how to run well, won six of 18 and placed a further eight times. Touched off in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate last start.

QUADZILLA

LEG 1 - RACE 7

QUINTESSA (12) a deserved favourite after strong performance in the Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) last start. Suited by the rise in distance and middle draw to get a cushy run. BASILINNA (13) loomed ominously last start at Flemington, ready to fire third-up. The Group 1 VRC Oaks-placed filly deserves a second win to go with her Cranbourne maiden, having placed in four of seven starts. Include APULIA (1) despite the wide draw. Has won and been runner-up at The Valley previously.

1ST LEG: 1, 12, 13

LEG 2 - RACE 8

IMPERATRIZ (5) to reclaim her rightful place back in the winner’s stall. Huge run last start in the Newmarket Handicap to carry top weight and only get beaten by CYLINDER (10), who enjoyed a 7.5 kilogram weight advantage. Only half a kilogram separates them on Saturday and Imperatriz is back at her favourite track. Imperatriz won the William Reid Stakes last year by a length. Include HYPOTHETICAL (9), should lead and be hard to mow down.

2ND LEG: 5, 9, 10

LEG 3 - RACE 9

INHIBITIONS (6) is unbeaten second-up and should go close to maintaining the record on Saturday from a kind draw. Fourth first-up, beaten quarter of a length. The three-year-old filly won second-up at The Valley last campaign. James Cummings has won this race the past two years with Hellfest (2022) and Parisal (2023). GUMDROPS (4) next best and a Listed winner at The Valley previously. Include BRAZEN STYLE (3) and the talented South Australian raider DUBENENKO (8).

3RD LEG: 3, 4, 6, 8

LEG 4 - RACE 10

GRAND IMPACT (2) too short in the market first-up after 15 months of the scene but must respect the support for the Group 3 winner resuming in a Benchmark 84. HENNESSY LAD (6) looms as a knockout chance, won two of three first-up and performed at The Valley previously. PAPILLON CLUB (8) has drawn nicely and could be a factor, having performed well at The Valley previously, a Group 3 winner. The four-year-old mare has won and placed first-up before and first time racing outside of stakes grade for quite some time.

4TH LEG: 2, 6, 8

COST $100 FOR 92%

SKINNY QUADDIE

Start with APULIA (1), QUINTESSA (12) and BASILINNA (13). In the second leg take IMPERATRIZ (5) one out. Then in the third leg take BRAZEN STYLE (3), GUMDROPS (4) and INHIBITIONS (6). Come home with GRAND IMPACT (2), HENNESSY LAD (6), PAPILLON CLUB (8).

1ST LEG: 1, 12, 13

2ND LEG: 5

3RD LEG: 3, 4, 6

4TH LEG: 2, 6, 8

COST $100 FOR 370.37%

Originally published as Four-Play, Quadzilla: $200 betting strategy for William Reid Stakes day at The Valley

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Original URL: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/horse-racing/vic-racing/fourplay-quadzilla-200-betting-strategy-for-william-reid-stakes-day-at-the-valley/news-story/8d0ac1776659de97616a119ef49192aa