Four-Play, Quadzilla: $200 betting strategy for Lightning Stakes meeting at Flemington

Form analyst Gilbert Gardiner gives his $200 betting strategy and detailed quaddie selections for Flemington, which includes a value tip in the Lightning Stakes.

I Am Unstoppable can upset the favourite in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes at Flemington on Saturday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

Herald Sun form analyst Gilbert Gardiner gives his four-play $200 betting strategy and detailed quaddie selections for the Lightning Stakes meeting at Flemington on Saturday.

FOUR-PLAY

RACE 3: LISTED TALINDERT STAKES (1100m)

$25 each-way AARDVARK (3) at $6/$2.20

Right form. Right jockey and right build-up. Drawn low in barrier three but trust Damian Lane to put the Leon and Troy Corstens-trained Capitalist colt in the right place to challenge for the win. Race has opened up with the withdrawal of pre-post favourite CHAMPAGNE TONIGHT (9) but WOLFGANG (1) and COUNTEROFFENSIVE (2) boast fitness edge on the opposition. Aardvark caught the eye running third on debut behind Coleman, who cemented his Blue Diamond credentials with a dominant Chairman’s Stakes win.

RACE 5: GROUP 3 FRANCES TRESSADY STAKES (1400m)

$25 each-way FORTUNATE KISS (7) at $15/$3.50

Put it all together last start at Caulfield, emerging in the straight to run out a strong winner. Won two of her past four and can go on with the job here, up in grade. Certainly a place chance. Respect favourite WISHLOR LASS (3), a multiple Group 3 winner last campaign, and the ever consistent REVOLUTIONARY MISS (1).

Vagrant delivers in the Geoffrey Belmaine Stakes 👌 @beau_mertens picks up a double at Caulfield 👏 @Freedmanmitchpic.twitter.com/h4SjX0bYAO

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) February 3, 2024

RACE 7: GROUP 3 CS HAYES STAKES (1400m)

$50 win KING COLORADO (2) at $3.30

Just looks his race doesn’t it? Super run first-up in the Group 3 Manfred Stakes, wound up powerfully from last down the straight at Caulfield to get within a length of the winner and stablemate Brave Mead in the 1200m feature. Should only be better suited at Flemington and 1400m right in the wheelhouse. Expect RUN HARRY RUN (3) and ET TU BRUTE (12), rated $11 and $15 respectively with TAB, to run better than their prices suggest.

RACE 8: GROUP 1 BLACK CAVIAR LIGHTNING STAKES (1000m)

$25 each-way I AM UNSTOPPABLE (8) at $7/$1.85

IMPERATRIZ (4) the one to beat no doubt and would not shock if she throttled them but at $1.85 the win happy to dabble on I Am Unstoppable to cause a minor upset. Third favourite in the eight-horse field and proven down the Flemington straight, albeit runner-up the past three starts including the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes. Dual Lightning Stakes winner Jamie Kah knows what it takes to win the race and she committed early on the Lloyd Kennewell and Lucy Yeomans-trained colt. Could make a case for any of the top six in betting to win or place on Saturday.

QUADZILLA

LEG 1 – RACE 7

KING COLORADO (2) ticks every box – trainer, jockey, form, barrier and class. Hardest to beat bar none. The JJ Atkins winner, who performed strongly at the highest level last spring without ultimate success, has a prime opportunity at a confidence-boosting win before the Australian Guineas in a fortnight. RUN HARRY RUN (3) a threat first-up but drawn poorly. Include ET TU BRUTE (12).

1ST LEG: 2, 3, 12

Brave Mead returns a winner ✅

The @cmaherracing & @eustacedj partnership salutes in its finals hours 🤝@blake_shinnpic.twitter.com/vCEpJEiMIE

— Racing.com (@Racing) January 26, 2024

LEG 2 – RACE 8

IMPERATRIZ (4) the obvious one and a likely standout selection for many. Trialled just OK at Cranbourne a fortnight ago but no prizemoney in those 800m conditioning gallops. The eight-time Group 1 winner is unbeaten at 1000m (2-2 at The Valley) and proved her mettle down Flemington straight last spring, with victory in the Champions Sprint. Include PRIVATE EYE (1) and I AM UNSTOPPABLE (8).

2ND LEG: 1, 4, 8

LEG 3 – RACE 9

JIMMYSSTAR (12) well under the odds for mine at $1.50 but must go into the numbers. KA BLING (11) a definite threat, hard fit and touched off by Ayrton last start. NOT AN OPTION (1), a three-time Flemington 1400m winner, including two starts back, was less than half a length behind Ka Bling last start. Ayrton competed strongly in the Group 1 CF Orr Stakes last Saturday to frank the form line. Include SAVANNAH CLOUD (4) the knockout horse, placed in four of five starts at Flemington and flies fresh.

3RD LEG: 1, 4, 11, 12

LEG 4 – RACE 10

PUNCH LANE (13) has won two of his past three and done so with authority. Up in grade but respect the placement by trainers Anthony and Sam Freedman. MERIDIUS (6), who placed in back-to-back races in Queensland last month, should be right in the finish. Include LOUNGE BAR RUBI (5) and MASTER MONTARO (14).

4TH LEG: 5, 6, 13, 14

Dominant win by Punch Lane 👌

Start number seven, win number four!@FreedmanRacingpic.twitter.com/FQPbouo6zH

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) February 3, 2024

COST $100 FOR 69%

SKINNY QUADDIE

Start with KING COLORADO (2) and ET TU BRUTE (12). In the second leg take IMPERATRIZ (4) and I AM UNSTOPPABLE (8). Then in the third leg take SAVANNAH CLOUD (4), KA BLING (11), JIMMYSSTAR (12). Come home with LOUNGE BAR RUBI (5), PUNCH LANE (13) and MASTER MONTARO (14).

First leg: 2, 12

Second leg: 4, 8

Third leg: 4, 11, 12

Fourth leg: 5, 13, 14

COST $100 FOR 277%

Originally published as Four-Play, Quadzilla: $200 betting strategy for Lightning Stakes meeting at Flemington