Form analyst Brad Waters’ Early Oil for Caulfield Saturday: $16 value bet

Consistent mare Let’sbefrankbaby should relish stepping up in class while an exciting two-year-old can get punters off to a fast start at Caulfield on Saturday. Brad Waters looks at all 10 races.

Let'sbefrankbaby should enjoy stepping up to 2400m when she heads to Caulfield on Saturday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images.

Herald Sun and Racenet form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Caulfield meeting

BEST BET

LET’SBEFRANKBABY (Race 5, No. 5)

Let’sbefrankbaby was solid again with the weights against her over 2000m last start. She’s ready for the 2400m and will be hard to beat.

VALUE BET

MY XANADU (Race 4, No. 6)

My Xanadu started her career with a win over 1200m at Geelong but will be well suited stepping up to 1600m for her second assignment.

EARLY QUADDIE

6, 7, 8, 12/1, 2, 3, 6, 8/3, 5/2, 5, 6, 11, 16

$100 flexi for 39 per cent

BIG6

3, 5/2, 5, 6, 11, 16/1, 4, 10, 12/1, 3, 8/6, 8, 9/4, 6, 8, 16

$100 flexi for 6.9 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 7: 1, 4, 10, 12

Race 8: 1, 3, 8

Race 9: 6, 8, 9

Race 10: 4, 6, 8, 16

$100 flexi for 69 per cent

The Showdown winner Stanley Express will attempt to stay unbeaten in the opening race of Saturday’s Caulfield meeting. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images.

RACE 1: 11:40AM CATANACH’S JEWELLERS HANDICAP (1100m)

STANLEY EXPRESS (1) trialled well before a strong debut win in the Showdown and will only be improved for that outing. TOO DARN DISCREET (7) chased well on debut at Bendigo and will be better for the experience. DENIAL (4) went well at Terang first-up and that form has been OK since. SOCIABLE (5) chased well behind a promising type on debut and will be fitter.

SUGGESTED BET: Stanley Express to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Stanley Express $2.90 – $2.60.

RACE 2: 12:10PM IAN MILLER HANDICAP (1400m)

Tricky race despite the small field but LA CARESSE (7) can improve after chasing well over 1200m when resuming here last time. GEORGIE GET MAD (3) fought on to score at Geelong and could again give them something to chase. CRACKERJACK PRINCE (1) has a solid first-up record and could show something fresh. HE’S BESET (6) resumes and showed ability at his first Australian preparation.

SUGGESTED BET: La Caresse each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Paperboy $8.50 – $7.

RACE 3: 12:40PM ROD GRIFFITHS HANDICAP (1400m)

ARQANA (12) steps up in class for this but there has been plenty to like about her two runs this time in and will carry only 51kg. GIRL (6) tried hard at Bendigo last time and will be competitive again. BRAZEN LADY (7) should have finished closer in a harder race here and has drawn to have every chance. FANCIFY (8) is lightly-raced but will be fitter for her first-up run in SA.

SUGGESTED BET: Arqana each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Our Red Morning $5 – $4.80.

RACE 4: 1:15PM ROD FENWICK HANDICAP (1600m)

Arqana could continue her rapid improvement with a light weight at Caulfield on Saturday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images.

A few promising types in this but MY XANADU (6) will enjoy racing over a longer trip after her strong debut win at Geelong. HYDROGEN POWER (8) found trouble when running on well first-up and will be much fitter. ELPHINSTONE (2) is flying this time in and must be respected again. KNUCKLEBONES (3) will be fitter for her first-up win from which the form stood up last Saturday.

SUGGESTED BET: My Xanadu each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Elphinstone $3.60 – $2.70.

RACE 5: 1:50PM JRA HANDICAP (2400m)

Happy to back LET’SBEFRANKBABY (5) to break through after excellent efforts in good form races at her last two runs and she’s a 2500m winner. FERAGO (3) was sound in tough conditions in the Warrnambool Cup and drops in class here. DODGY ONE (10) lifted late to score at Cranbourne and looks ready for this trip. SING FOR PEACE (7) ran on well behind a good mare at Mornington and can improve further.

SUGGESTED BET: Let’sbefrankbaby to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Let’sbefrankbaby $4.40 – $4.20.

RACE 6: 2:25PM DARREN GAUCI HANDICAP (2000m)

This is the toughest race of the day. MOYA LASS (16) might be worth another chance after getting too far back second-up and her 2000m record is good. CHIHULY (2) has drawn wide but is racing well and won’t be far away again. MOVEFORLEX (6) fought on well to score first-up and should go well again. ALBANIAN I AM (11) can progress from his last-start win.

SUGGESTED BET: Moya Lass each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Quantum Cat $10 – $7.50.

Impressive first-up winner Moya Lass is worth another chance stepping up to 2000m at Caulfield on Saturday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images.

RACE 7: 3:00PM LAMARO’S HOTEL HANDICAP (1400m)

Good race with a few promising types engaged. KREMENTZ (4) showed talent during a strong summer campaign and has performed well at the jumpouts leading up to this. BOSSY NIC (1) tried hard second-up and drops in class for this. MORISA (12) won easily at her only start and has gone well at the jumpouts. RIVERINA POWER (10) can improve on firmer footing at Caulfield.

SUGGESTED BET: Krementz each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Miss Aria $5.50 – $4.60.

RACE 8: 3:40PM SELANGOR TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1400m)

DEVOTED (8) had no luck when close-up in a $500,000 race at Yarra Valley first-up and should relish stepping up to 1400m. GENTLEMAN ROY (1) has plenty of weight but is classy and has a good first-up record. SAVANNAH CLOUD (3) went well again at Mornington and goes well over 1400m. JIGSAW (4) is on trial at 1400m but hasn’t had much luck at his last two runs.

SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 3, 4, 8.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Devoted $5 – $4.60.

RACE 9: 4:15PM BLUEBLOOD THOROUGHBREDS HANDICAP (1600m)

FRIGID (6) returned to winning ways with an emphatic win at Mornington and she’ll have every chance again in this. LETHAL THOUGHTS (9) wasn’t far away at Bendigo and that form should stand up again here. PAPILLON CLUB (8) is ready for the 1600m and blinkers go on for this. FARHH FLUNG (10) is racing well and should be thereabouts again.

SUGGESTED BET: Frigid to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Frigid $4 – $3.50.

RACE 10: 4:50PM SPORTSBET PHOTO FINISH HANDICAP (1200m)

Tough race to finish the meeting but CARDIGAN QUEEN (6) is worth thought first-up and dropping in grade after racing in stakes class in the spring. SEMILLION (8) gave a good sight over this trip third-up and will be a bit fitter again. PRANCING SPIRIT (16) had no luck over this course last time and has drawn well in this. LOUNGE BAR RUBI (4) is a handy galloper that is unbeaten at Caulfield and loves this trip.

SUGGESTED BET: Cardigan Queen each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Bellinger $9 – $6.

Originally published as Form analyst Brad Waters’ Early Oil for Caulfield Saturday: $16 value bet