Early Oil: Best bets and value plays for Saturday’s races at The Valley

A Godolphin filly can continue her winning run while a Wangaratta-trained galloper could make a profitable trip to Melbourne as an $18 chance in the last race at The Valley.

Emerging filly Photograph can complete a hat-trick of wins when she heads to The Valley on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Carlyon Stakes meeting at The Valley.

BEST BET

PHOTOGRAPH (Race 4, No. 3)

The Godolphin filly has shown a terrific turn of foot to win her last two starts. No reason she can’t step up to Saturday grade.

BEST VALUE

SUPARAZI (Race 9 No. 1)

Suparazi is yet to miss a place first-up and his Echuca trial leading up to this was excellent. He’s a great each-way play in the last.

EARLY QUADDIE

1, 4, 5, 6, 9/1, 2, 5/1, 3, 4, 7/7, 8, 12

$100 flexi for 46 per cent

BIG6

1, 3, 4, 7/7, 8, 12/7, 12, 15/1, 9/3, 5, 9/1, 4, 9, 13

$100 flexi for 11.5 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 7, 8, 12, 15, 16

Race 7: 1, 2, 9

Race 8: 3, 5, 9

Race 9: 1, 4, 9, 13

$100 flexi for 55 per cent.

Dashing Duchess will be out to repeat her comfortable last-start win when she again races over 2500m at The Valley. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 1: 1.10PM ITALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE HANDICAP (2500m)

Nine runners in the opener but happy to have DASHING DUCHESS (4) on top after her impressive last-start win over this course. She’ll have every chance again with only 53kg. LORDSHIP (3) will be better for a sound effort at Flemington. WYCLIF (2) chased fairly here last time and could improve. TOO CLOSE THE SUN (1) will be fitter again for his fourth to Point King.

SUGGESTED BET: Trifecta 4/1, 2, 3/1, 2, 3.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Dashing Duchess $2.30 – $1.90.

RACE 2: 1.45PM BROOKS RUNNING AU PLATE (1200m)

Tricky race despite the small field but POLYGLOT (8) is a developing type that broke his maiden at Bendigo last time out. He worked well at The Valley on Tuesday. DAGGERS (6) showed his ability with a dominant debut win and must be respected. STOLLI BOLLI (9) trialled well before his debut win from which he will be improved. ZESTIMAN (1) closed well from the rear second-up and the step to 1200m will suit.

SUGGESTED BET: Polyglot to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Last Druid $11 – $6.50.

RACE 3: 2.20PM AIRITALIA HANDICAP (1523m)

Expecting the on-pace runners to be hard to beat in this line-up. DOM (1) was no match for the impressive I Am Velvet at Caulfield but can bounce back. TRUNK (2) was a strong all-the-way winner at Newcastle and should be in this for a long way. EVAPORATE (5) broke his maiden at Cranbourne and looks a progressive type. SAMMAAN CITY (6) was a beaten favourite at Terang but will be fitter.

SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 2, 5, 6.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Lavalier $9.50 – $6.50.

Lincoln Rocks is a great chance to handle a rise in class with aplomb at The Valley on Saturday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 4: 2.55PM VALE BLACK CAVIAR PLATE (1200m)

PHOTOGRAPH (3) has shown an electric turn of foot at her last couple of wins and should be hard to hold out despite switching to the tighter Valley track. COMANCHE MISS (9) will be much fitter for a fair first-up run at Caulfield. MANOLO BLING (1) impressed her debut win and rates as one of the better chances. FOREVERINTIME (7) was well performed in NZ and could bob up on debut for Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman.

SUGGESTED BET: Photograph to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Immortal Star $8 – $4.80.

RACE 5: 3.30PM DR BERNARD CLARKE MEMORIAL HANDICAP (2040m)

One of the day’s biggest fields but LINCOLN ROCKS (7) could handle a step up in class after a strong win over this course last time out. MISTRESSOFILLUSION (12) did her best work late at The Valley first-up and will only be improved. JABBAWOCKEEZ (3) needs soft ground to be at his best but showers are forecast and he is racing well. QUANTUM CAT (8) has the ability to be thereabouts first-up.

SUGGESTED BET: Lincoln Rocks to win

TAB MARKET MOVER: Lincoln Rock $3.40 – $3.10

RACE 6: 4.10PM LADBROKE IT! HANDICAP (1600m)

Another good-sized field engaged here but AIMING (12) is racing well and finished off well to score at Sandown last time and he can handle the class rise. RICK’S CAFÉ (15) could improve sharply on her fifth at Caulfield and races best over 1600m. TROSETTEE (7) is consistent and drawn to have every chance while NAME DROPPER (16) could push forward and be in it for a long way.

SUGGESTED BET: Aiming each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Trosettee $11 – $8.

Bold Bastille will chase a fourth straight win when she takes on older horses in the Listed Carlyon Stakes. Picture: Michael Klein

RACE 7: 4.45PM BOOZEBUD HANDICAP (1523m)

SEA WHAT I SEE (9) returns after a terrific autumn campaign and she can stretch her winning streak to seven with only 53kg on her back. YOUNG WERTHER (1) is consistent and should have the residual fitness to go close again. HOLYMANZ (2) will be much better for an excellent first-up run at Flemington while JENNILALA (3) resumes and has a terrific first-up record.

SUGGESTED BET: Sea What I See to win/box trifecta 1, 2, 3, 9.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Sea What I See $3 – $2.70.

RACE 8: 5.15PM LISTED PARAMOUNT LIQUOR CARLYON STAKES (1000m)

Plenty of pace engaged here but BOLD BASTILLE (9) will prove hard to catch with only 50.5kg over 1000m around The Valley. MORNINGTON GLORY (5) impressed winning on this course second-up and will be fitter. GOLDEN BOOM (3) will enjoy getting back on to firmer footing at his Melbourne debut. SANS DOUTE (7) is likely to give a start but expect her to be strong late.

SUGGESTED BET: Bold Bastille to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Sans Doute $8 – $5.50.

RACE 9: 5.45PM DR SHEAHAN PLATE (1200m)

Difficult race to finish the day but SUPARAZI (1) will go around over the odds as he is yet to miss a place first-up and has trialled exceptionally well. PROWLING (9) will improve sharply on his first-up run at Flemington. MASTERFUL (13) is a first-up winner and should be strong late. RAIKOKE (4) resumes as a gelding and won first-up last time in.

SUGGESTED BET: Suparazi each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Extratwo $6.50 – $4.20

Originally published as Early Oil: Best bets and value plays for Saturday’s races at The Valley