Brad Waters’ race-by-race tips and analysis for Saturday’s Lightning Stakes meeting at Flemington

Punters can land an early blow in the first race of the day while a $19 chance could spring a surprise at Saturday’s Lightning Stakes meeting at Flemington.

  

Racenet form expert Brad Waters analyses the 10-race card for Saturday’s Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes meeting at Flemington.

• PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet’s team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW!

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

BEST BET
REVELARE (Race 1, No. 3): Has won his past three starts in good style, smashing the track record last start. No reason he won’t thrive over 2000m at Flemington.

BEST VALUE
SCARY (Race 7 No. 11): The Victoria Derby runner-up has looked sharp in his recent jumpouts and can surprise a few over the 1400m first-up.

EARLY QUADDIE
2, 3, 4, 7/1, 5, 6, 12/1, 4, 10, 12/1, 2, 3, 5, 6
$100 flexi for 31.25 per cent

BIG6
1, 4, 12/2, 3, 5, 6/ 3, 6, 11, 14/2, 10, 11/1, 2, 4, 5/1, 3, 9
$100 flexi for 5.7 per cent

QUADDIE
Race 7: 3, 6, 11, 14
Race 8: 1, 2, 10, 11
Race 9: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10
Race 10: 1, 3, 9, 12
$100 flexi for 31.25 per cent

MULTI
Race 1 No. 3 Revelare (win)
Race 7 No. 11 Scary (place)
Current odds $18.70

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 1: 12:15PM TAB WE’RE ON (2000m)

Expecting a good track with windy conditions for Lightning Stakes Day. REVELARE (3) has impressed with each step up in trip this time in and he should relish the 2000m. MISS TARZY (8) raced honestly at Sandown and should continue her consistent form. KINGS VALLEY (6) had the perfect run to score last start and is a chance again. SHINY NEW DEEL (11) pushed Revelare at Sandown and is worth including at his first 2000m run.

SUGGESTED BET: Revelare to win.

MARKET MOVER: Kapakiri $9.50 – $8.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 2: 12:45PM LISTED TAB TALINDERT STAKES (1100m)

This will be a competitive 2YO race but BRAVE DESIGN (5) enjoyed the Flemington straight in a recent jumpout and that experience will be valuable. SHINING SMILE (1) was too strong at this level first-up and will be improved. BLETHYN (4) has shown plenty of pace in his jumpouts while SWORD OF LEGACY (7) is promising and has straight track experience.

SUGGESTED BET: Brave Design each-way.

MARKET MOVER: Sword Of Legacy $3.50 – $3.10.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 3: 1:20PM FRANCES TRESSADY STAKES (1400m)

Competitive field of mares here but FANCIFY (3) was solid when second over 1200m first-up and is unbeaten over the Flemington 1400m course. MIRAVAL ROSE (4) didn’t quicken when back to 1200m at Sandown but won over this course two runs back. PLENTY OF AMMO (2) is a smart mare that should be competitive here fresh. FLYING FIZZ (7) is up in class but could add value to exotics.

SUGGESTED BET: Fancify to win.

MARKET MOVER: Fancify $4 – $3.50.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 4: 1:55PM THE ALL-STAR MILE OWNER AMBASSADOR TROPHY (1600m)

Possibly the toughest race of the day but ARQANA (12) ran on well in a good form race here fresh and has trialled well since. VERDAD (6) wasn’t far away when resuming and should have every chance from barrier three. FLASH FLOOD (1) has an awkward draw but is racing consistently. UMGAWA (5) ran on well at Sandown and is a winner over this trip.

SUGGESTED BET: Arqana to win.

MARKET MOVER: Verdad $4.80 – $4.20.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 5: 2:30PM THE FLEMINGTON LONG LUNCH (1200m)

VELOCE CARRO (4) might have needed the run at Flemington last time out but has trialled since and is unbeaten second-up. PRINZERRO (12) did a good job at Sandown fresh and is worth including with a 5kg weight drop. EXTRATWO (1) races best over 1200m and has trialled well. SHESALLSHENANIGANS (6) was narrowly beaten at Sandown but races well down the straight.

SUGGESTED BET: Veloce Carro to win.

MARKET MOVER: Wiggum $6.50 – $6.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 6: 3:05PM LISTED THE ELMS HANDICAP (1400m)

RISE AT DAWN (6) is a prolific winner that pushed forward and makes his own luck. He’ll be hard to get pasty fresh. JUST FOLK (2) is fresh for this after two solid and has the class to figure here. AZTEC RULER (5) wasn’t far away at Sandown and will be better again for this. Watch for BERKELEY SQUARE (3) running on late.

SUGGESTED BET: Rise At Dawn to win.

MARKET MOVER: Aztec Ruler $8 – $7.50.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 7: 3:40PM GROUP 3 CS HAYES STAKES (1400m)

Tough race with a good field of three-year-olds engaged but SCARY (10) appeals as an each-way prospect at good odds after two excellent jumpouts following his Derby placing. ROYAL INSIGNIA (3) finished strongly to score first-up and will be improved. SEPALS (14) steps up sharply in class but his last two wins have been promising. FEROCE (6) is talented and has drawn to perform well fresh.

SUGGESTED BET: Scary each-way.

MARKET MOVER: Goldrush Guru $27 – $15.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 8: 4:15PM GROUP 1 BLACK CAVIAR LIGHTNING (1000m)

SWITZERLAND (11) looked a natural down the Flemington straight in his Coolmore Stud Stakes win in the spring and could repeat it here. GROWING EMPIRE (10) matched it with the best sprinters in training in the spring and can fire fresh. MORNINGTON GLORY (2) is a 1000m specialist with a good record down the straight. MAZU (1) is always competitive in top sprints and this will be no exception.

SUGGESTED BET: Back both Switzerland and Growing Empire.

MARKET MOVER: I Am Me $9.50 – $7.50.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 9: 4:55PM LISTED DESIRABLE STAKES (1400m)

Another tricky race but SNEAKY SUNRISE (4) has always shown ability and has a great record over the Flemington 1400m course. ANOTHER PROPHET (1) is a classy filly and will be better for her first-up effort against the boys at Sandown. Kiwi filly CAPTURED BY LOVE (2) has an impressive record at home and should measure up. CILACAP (5) tackles stakes company for the first time but impressed in her debut preparation.

SUGGESTED BET: Sneaky Sunrise to win.

MARKET MOVER: Another Prophet $8 – $7.50.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 10: 5:35PM STUD & STABLE STAFF LEADERSHIP AWARD (1400m)

Interesting finish to the Flemington meeting but SUNSHINEINMYPOCKET (9) showed a strong will to win when scoring first-up and will be improved. IT’S BUSINESS TIME (1) will improve sharply on her sound first-up effort at Sandown. IS IT ME (3) ran on well to win a similar race last start and will be competitive again. PORTER (12) is racing in top form and should be in this for a long way.

SUGGESTED BET: Sunshininmypocket to win with a saver on It’s Business Time.

MARKET MOVER: Euphoric $9.50 – $8.

Originally published as Brad Waters’ race-by-race tips and analysis for Saturday’s Lightning Stakes meeting at Flemington