Brad Waters’ best bets and value play for 2025 William Reid Stakes Day at The Valley

A Warrnambool-trained mare can bounce back from a luckless outing while a $14 chance could make the most of a soft draw at Saturday’s 11-race William Reid Stakes meeting at The Valley.

Victorian form expert Brad Waters analyses the 11-race card for Saturday’s Group 1 William Reid Stakes meeting at The Valley, presenting his best bets and quaddie picks.

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BEST BET
DASHING DUCHESS (Race 5, No. 2): The Warrnambool mare should have finished closer in a tougher race first-up and is unbeaten at The Valley. Expecting her to be harder to hold out.

BEST VALUE
MARBLE NINE (Race 11 No. 9): Faced the breeze when a fighting third down the straight at Flemington and should have a much softer run this time.

EARLY QUADDIE
1, 6, 9, 10, 16 / 2, 4, 7 / 2, 3, 8 / 1, 2, 3, 4
$100 flexi for 55.5 per cent

BIG6
2, 3, 8/1, 2, 3, 4/ 1, 3, 9, 13/1, 5, 6, 7/8, 10, 11, 15/9, 10
$100 flexi for 6.5 per cent

QUADDIE
Race 8: 1, 3, 9, 13
Race 9: 1, 5, 6, 7
Race 10: 8, 10, 11, 15
Race 11: 9, 10
$100 flexi for 78.12 per cent

Honest mare Too Darn Lizzie should again give her rivals something to chase in at The Valley on Saturday. Picture: Michael Klein.

MULTI
Race 5 No. 2 Dashing Duchess (win)
Race 7 No. 1 Too Darn Lizzie (win)
Current odds $16.50

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RACE 1: 12:15PM LADBROKES FORM GENIUS HANDICAP (2500m)

Rain on Thursday could impact the track a little but expecting a fair racing surface. MI ROCK ALY (9) is racing consistently and should be in this for a long way. BUR DUBAI (7) wasn’t far away from a smart type second-up and will be fitter. FERAGO (3) has had a month between runs but likes this trip. STEEL RUN (6) closed well at Flemington first-up and will be fitter.

SUGGESTED BET: Back both Mi Rock Aly and Bur Dubai.

MARKET MOVER: Bur Dubai $4.50 – $3.80.

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RACE 2: 12:45PM XTREME FREIGHT VALLEY PEARL (1200m)

The two-year-olds feature here and PRESTIGE FOREVER (2) did well on debut at Flemington and could improve with the race experience. JENNI MOO MOO (7) comes out of the same race as the top pick and should enjoy 1200m. CHERGUI (1) was solid in The Showdown last Saturday and can be thereabouts. PURE PASSION (6) chased home an impressive winner at Flemington and will go well again.

SUGGESTED BET: Prestige Forever to win.

MARKET MOVER: Petit Artiste $35 – $27.

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RACE 3: 1:20PM ASCNED SALES TROPHIES HANDICAP (1200m)

Tricky race but ELOUYOU (6) is worth another chance after a fair first-up run down the straight at Flemington. POIFECT (3) drops in class from her spring assignments and has a strong first-up record. PIVOT CITY (5) has a poor draw but there was plenty to like about his first-up win. TOP CALIBRE (13) has drawn awkwardly but he’s a talented type.

SUGGESTED BET: Elouyou to win.

MARKET MOVER: Fine Calibre $3.30 – $3.20.

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RACE 4: 1:55PM MANHARI HANDICAP (1500m)

HELLSING (6) looks ready to fire after a good second-up effort at Flemington and will be thereabouts if the pace is on. VERDAD (1) finally broke through for a win at Flemington and could go on with it. AMBASSADORIAL (16) is on debut for the Alex Rae stable and has trialled well. SUN GOD (13) has jumped out well and could show something at his Australian debut.

SUGGESTED BET: Hellsing each-way.

MARKET MOVER: Stay Focused $6 – $5.50.

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RACE 5: 2:30PM JACK HIRSCH MEMORIAL YARRA VALLEY CUP (2040m)

DASHING DUCHESS (2) will be awfully hard to beat back at The Valley, where she is unbeaten, after two solid efforts this time in. INDEPENDENT ROAD (4) is racing well and should have every chance with only 53kg. ZIRYAB (7) led and tried hard at Flemington but looks ready for 2040m now. FORTUNE (9) chased well at Flemington and is worth including.

SUGGESTED BET: Dashing Duchess to win.

MARKET MOVER: Golden Crusader $11 – $9.50.

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RACE 6: 3:05PM GROUP 2 DCE ALISTER CLARK STAKES (2040m)

SHANWAH (2) has developed into a serious staying prospect this time in and can make it four wins in a row. EMPHASIZE (8) can improve on his honest fourth at Caulfield last time out while OPENING ADDRESS (3) will be well suited over 2040m after two steady autumn runs. RAPID CHEVAL (9) will be much fitter for a good first-up effort at Sandown.

SUGGESTED BET: Shanwah to win/box trifecta 2, 3, 8, 9.

MARKET MOVER: Emphasize $4.50 – $4.20.

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RACE 7: 3:40PM GROUP 3 DYNAMIC PRINT GROUP ALEXANDRA STAKES (1600m)

TOO DARN LIZZIE (1) will relish the absence of Treasurethe Moment in this race after chasing her home at both runs this time in. CILACAP (2) has returned in good form and has drawn perfectly while GALA QUEEN (3) impressed winning over this trip in Adelaide last time. SNEAKY SUNRISE (4) is another that will be fitter for her two recent solid efforts.

SUGGESTED BET: Too Darn Lizzie to win.

MARKET MOVER: Too Darn Lizzie $3.10 – $3.

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RACE 8: 4:15PM GROUP 2 PACKAGING NEEDS SUNLINE STAKES (1600m)

ANOTHER PROPHET (13) takes on the older mares but has done enough in her three autumn runs to suggest she’ll measure up in this. SO GLAMOROUS (9) is racing honestly and will again be competitive. LADY JONES (3) chased honestly at Flemington first-up and will be fitter. QUINTESSA (1) was better at Caulfield and has won a jumpout since.

SUGGESTED BET: Another Prophet to win.

MARKET MOVER: Quintessa $9 – $7.50.

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RACE 9: 4:55PM GROUP 1 3 POINT MOTORS WILLIAM REID STAKES (1200m)

Difficult edition of the William Reid Stakes but SHE’S BULLETPROOF (7) is hard-fit and should continue to race consistently. STRETAN ANGEL (6) is honest and won’t be far away again while JIMMYSSTAR (1) impressed winning the Oakleigh Plate fresh and will be better again. BENEDETTA (5) had no luck in the Newmarket Handicap and can improve.

SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 5, 6, 7.

MARKET MOVER: Another Prophet $8 – $7.50.

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RACE 10: 5:35PM GROUP 3 PKF DON CASBOULT STAKES (1200m)

SCILLATO (8) found plenty to stay unbeaten at Flemington and can handle the jump to stakes class at The Valley. MCKEYLA (11) was dominant at Sandown last time out and is worth thought again. KHADIME (15) will be fitter for her first-up second and has drawn well. JUST LIKE GABY (10) is racing well at The Valley and won’t be far away.

SUGGESTED BET: Scillato to win.

MARKET MOVER: Euphoric $9.50 – $8.

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RACE 11: 6:05PM CASPERS PIES AND PASTIES HANDICAP (1200m)

Tough race to finish but MARBLE NINE (9) boxed on well at Flemington second-up but will have a softer run from barrier four. MYTEMPTATION (10) is unbeaten and should be respected after a tough effort at Flemington. ARRAN BAY (1) might want further but has the quality to show up fresh. EXTRATWO (6) always races well at The Valley and must be considered.

SUGGESTED BET: Scillato to win.

MARKET MOVER: Euphoric $9.50 – $8.

Originally published as Brad Waters’ best bets and value play for 2025 William Reid Stakes Day at The Valley