Best bets and value play for Underwood Stakes Day at Caulfield
Imported mare Place Du Carrousel cost her owners an enormous amount at auction in France last year but she can make a big repayment of her purchase price in her Melbourne debut in Saturday’s Underwood Stakes at Caulfield.
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Herald Sun and Racenet form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Group 1 Underwood Stakes meeting at Caulfield.
BEST BET
PLACE DU CARROUSEL (Race 8, No. 11)
The classy import wasn’t far away in a tough race first-up last time in and her recent trials indicate a big first-up run is likely.
VALUE BET
POSITIVITY (Race 7, No. 14)
Positivity was scratched from Flemington last week but she performed well first-up at Caulfield and will only be improved for her latest assignment.
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 2, 3, 6/1, 2, 4, 5/2, 3/2, 5, 11, 12
$100 flexi for 78 per cent
BIG6
2, 3/2, 5, 11, 12/1, 9, 14, 15, 16/2, 8, 11/2, 3, 4, 5/6, 10, 14
$100 flexi for 6.9 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 7: 1, 2, 3, 6
Race 8: 2, 8, 11
Race 9: 2, 3, 4, 5
Race 10: 6, 10, 14
$100 flexi for 55 per cent.
RACE 1: 12.10PM EQUINE PATHWAYS LAMARO’S HOTEL HANDICAP (2000m)
Tough race to start the Underwood Stakes meeting but DENMARK (5) was solid over 2040m at The Valley last time out and should be fitter again. CORONA LAD (12) ran on well last time out and has drawn to race closer. CONVENOR (3) scored a surprise win over 1800m at Caulfield and has won a couple over 2000m. GOLD WOLF (2) worked home steadily over 1800m first-up and will only be improved over this trip second-up.
SUGGESTED BET: Denmark to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Denmark $5.50 – $4.80.
RACE 2: 12.40PM LIVING LEGENDS 4CYTE HANDICAP (1600m)
Tricky race but WAIMARIE (6) is racing well from the front and can again give them something to chase over 1600m. FEDERER (11) is an exciting type that can handle another rise in class at Caulfield. Imported galloper SHAHZAD (1) has shown plenty in his jumpouts leading up to his Australian debut. REGAL ZEUS (4) is racing consistently and should have every chance.
SUGGESTED BET: Waimarie each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Federer $1.80 – $1.70.
RACE 3: 1.15PM CLASSIC HITS MAGIC1278 HANDICAP (1400m)
SASSY BOOM (1) had to work hard early but wasn’t far away when resuming at Caulfield but should be harder to beat with the benefit of that outing. LOVAZOU (2) was solid again when stepping up this level last start and has drawn perfectly. POIFECT (3) is yet to miss a placing first-up and has jumped out well. QUICKSTER (6) is another that has performed well at the jumpouts.
SUGGESTED BET: Sassy Boom to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Quickster $4.80 – $3.60.
RACE 4: 1.50PM LISTED JIM MOLONEY STAKES (1400m)
SILMARILLION (1) impressed when breaking her maiden at this level at The Valley and can go on with it under the favourable weight terms of this race. JENNI’S MEADOW (2) resumes over the right distance here and shouldn’t be far away. SAKIMA (5) should have finished a touch closer at The Valley and is hard-fit for the step up in trip. TOO DARN LIZZIE (4).
SUGGESTED BET: Exacta 1 / 2, 4, 5.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Silmarillion $3.90 – $3.10.
RACE 5: 2.25PM LISTED MILLENNIUM TESTA ROSSA STAKES (1400m)
ANOTHER WIL (3) is short in the market but impressed with his first-up win from which he should be improved. HERE TO SHOCK (2) only went down narrowly when resuming could be harder to run down this time. CRAIG (9) steps up in class after scoring easily first-up but will be competitive. SHOWMANSHIP (8) is on the fresh side but has the quality to show up again.
SUGGESTED BET: Another Wil/Here To Shock quinella.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Another Wil $2.25 – $2.10.
RACE 6: 3PM TOUR D’HORSE SPRINT (1100m)
Interesting race with many chances but REY MAGNERIO (12) is worth thought down on the limit weight. He wasn’t far away in an Oakleigh Plate last time in and is a first-up winner. COMMEMORATIVE (11) ran on solidly in Group 3 class first-up and should be around the mark. ASHFORD STREET (5) wasn’t disgraced behind Mornington Glory last start and can improve, especially if rain arrives.
SUGGESTED BET: Small each-way Rey Magnerio.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Chinny Boom $6.50 – $4.40.
RACE 7: 3.35PM GROUP 3 MRC FOUNDATION CUP (2000m)
Excellent edition of the Caulfield Cup qualifier in which POSITIVITY (14) looks well suited with the benefit of a strong first-up second. GEAR UP (9) did his best work late when resuming in a strongly run race at Caulfield and should have every chance. SAINT GEORGE (15) had no luck when resuming and should enjoy a stronger tempo this time. IMMEDIACY (16) will be fitter for a promising first-up run over 1500m.
SUGGESTED BET: Positivity each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Immediacy $9.50 – $7.
RACE 8: 4.15PM GROUP 1 UNDERWOOD STAKES (1800m)
PLACE DU CARROUSEL (11) could be the one to beat in the Underwood Stakes if she repeats her excellent first-up in Sydney last time in. She has trialled impressively and would thrive in soft ground. BUCKAROO (8) was a fighting winner of the Chelmsford Stakes and should only be improved. PERICLES (2) was a dominant winner in easier grade last time in and is an 1800m winner. COCO SUN (13) will be fitter for an encouraging first-up effort.
SUGGESTED BET: Place Du Carrousel to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Place Du Carrousel $6 – $5.
RACE 9: 4.55PM GROUP 3 SPORTSBET CAULFIELD GUINEAS PRELUDE (1400m)
Great contest in the offing but ANGEL CAPITAL (2) impressed when letting down to score at The Valley first-up and should be suited stepping up to 1400m. EPIMELES (3) had no luck first-up and can improve sharply. BOSUSTOW (4) impressed with a fighting second at his Melbourne debut and 1400m suits. WANARUAH (5) heads south with a good record in Sydney and will in this for a long way.
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 2, 3, 4, 5.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Wanaruah $5 – $4.20.
RACE 10: 5.25PM HERE FOR THE HORSES PLATE (1200m)
A LITTLE DEEP (6) enjoyed a strong tempo to win at The Valley and the form out of that stood up with Arkansaw Kid winning a Group 2 race at Flemington. MISS ICELANDIC (14) will give a start but expecting her to be running on hard late. MY BELLA MAE (10) has won a couple first-up and has trialled well leading up to this. ETERNAL FLAME (2) has the class to feature fresh.
SUGGESTED BET: A Little Deep to win
TAB MARKET MOVER: A Little Deep $8.50 – $6.
Originally published as Best bets and value play for Underwood Stakes Day at Caulfield
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