Beating The Odds: Tony Thomas tips $8 chance to win Australia Stakes at the Valley
Form expert Tony Thomas believes a recent jumpout has an $8 chance ready to explode in the Australia Stakes at The Valley on Saturday.
Horse Racing
Don't miss out on the headlines from Horse Racing. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Confidence levels are high for The Valley on Saturday.
RACE 1: LADBROKE IT! BM70 HCP (1500m)
Does look like ACID WASH’S (1) race to lose. Long odds-on favourite, taken to the front and untouched in the straight but still won by a space at Cranbourne. Showed great deal of promise in two previous city runs. Don’t think he will push to lead here from the sticky draw but can do so if the pace slackens. Suspect he will sit off the speed and then unleash late. I can take the $2 on offer at the moment because I reckon he will start odds-on. Also happy to take SOCKS NATION (6) for the exacta. He will roll forward and he does have talent.
SUGGESTED BET: Acid Wash to win at $2 but not much shorter. 1 to beat 6 in exacta.
TIPS: Acid Wash (1) 1, Socks Nation (6) 2, Crackle ‘N’ Burn (3) 3, Cognac In Mine (7) 4.
RACE 2: ASCEND SALES TROPHIES CHALLENGER BM70 HCP (1600m)
Looks a good race for CEERSEVEN (4). Lot to like about his resumption when third to Elouyou in strong grade at Geelong. He was never going to win but he did produce strong sectionals to close off the race nicely. Gets the extra 200m to suit and the claim will help too. Just needs some luck as he will come from back in the field. ADANDIMAN (1) looks the leader and could take running down if he makes it a sprint home. Impressive last start. CONFRONTATIONAL (6) is ready to run an improved race.
SUGGESTED BET: Ceerseven to win at $2.40. Take 1,3,4,6 in boxed trifecta.
TIPS: Ceerseven (4) 1, Adandiman (1) 2, Confrontational (6) 3, Brooklyn Boss (3) 4.
RACE 3: ENTRY EDUCATION BM70 F/M HCP (1600m)
KIND GESTURE (1) has plenty of weight but liked her effort last start when she hit the line strongly behind Regal Vow at Flemington. Back in grade here, right at her peak now and draws to get a gun run behind the speed. Ready to win. I can take the $3.10 now. VERY SEWREEL (9) looks the leader and did well at Flemington last start when boxing on strongly behind the smart Otago.
SUGGESTED BET: Kind Gesture to win at $3.10.
TIPS: Kind Gesture (1) 1, Very Sewreel (9) 2, Dane On Tour (3) 3, Fire Of Etna (5) 4.
RACE 4: SIMPSON CONSTRUCTION BM84 HCP (1600m)
From barrier one it does appear RUNNING BY (2) can lead and dictate terms, She did that last start to win at Randwick in emphatic fashion. But she can also take a sit if need be and still be as effective. In sparkling form and should handle first try at this trip easily. She is pretty short at $2.15. Happy to take TORONTO TERRIER (3) for the exacta. He’s very honest and will be on speed.
SUGGESTED BET: Take 2,3 in boxed exacta.
TIPS: Running By (2) 1, Toronto Terrier (3) 2, Toogoodfortoorak (5) 3, Spanish Tides (7) 4.
RACE 5: HAPPY 50TH JEFF WATERS BM70 HCP (1200m)
EXTRATWO (2) resumes off the back of an okay jumpout. She has ability as evidenced by a strong win at Lakeside before a break and gets the claim here to help. Will sit back but charge late. $2.70 is probably rock bottom price. She could start longer. TANGO JEWEL (10) gets the gun run from the good draw and is very consistent.
SUGGESTED BET: Extratwo to win at $2.70
TIPS: Extratwo (2) 1, Tango Jewel (10) 2, Miss Take (1) 3, Lazy Susan (5) 4.
RACE 6: RANVET TRAVIS HARRISON CUP (2040m)
INDEPENDENT ROAD (3) looks really well placed here. He was brave behind the classy Dunkel over this t/d and class two runs back and then tried hard behind Holymanz at Geelong. He normally goes well this track, races on speed and rock hard fit. MANKAYAN (1) resumed with a great effort at Caulfield on Boxing Day and extra distance in his favour.
SUGGESTED BET: Independent Road to win at $4.40.
TIPS: Independent Road (3) 1, Mankayan (1) 2, Don’t Doubt Dory (2) 3, Mystery Island (7) 4.
RACE 7: CHANDLER MCLEOD BM70 HCP (2040m)
FRETTA (7) may be the most progressive horse in the race. There was a lot to like about her win at Bendigo in December and then had a brief freshen up and chased hard behind Regal Zeus at Geelong when it was dominated by on-pace runners. Think she will be even better with the extra trip and just needs to find a nice spot from an awkward draw. MISS TARZY (3) has won her last two at this course and distance in great style and looks the logical danger.
SUGGESTED BET: Fretta to win at $2.70.
TIPS: Fretta (7) 1, Miss Tarzy (3) 2, Kailash (4) 3, Blue Cup (1) 4.
RACE 8: LAWN RULES BM78 HCP (1000m)
MORNINGTON GLORY (5) backs up after breaking through for a deserved win at Flemington last week and reckon he can do it again. This trip just may be his sweet spot. He’ll put himself into a good position behind the speed and he will be the one charging at them late. Stick with him. And reckon we will get a better price than the current $2.40. PHILOSOPHER (1) has won all three starts since being gelded and was just too pacy here last month but he does have to carry 3kg more this time.
SUGGESTED BET: Mornington Glory to win at $2.40
TIPS: Mornington Glory (5) 1, Philosopher (1) 2, Shirshov (2) 3, Magic Max (3) 4.
RACE 9: SHARP EIT SOLUTIONS AUSTRALIA STAKES G2 (1200m)
I’m with the three-year-old colt SOUTHPORT TYCOON (11). Reckon he is a bit underrated. Terrific effort behind Steparty at Caulfield and then got lost early but still ran on in the Caulfield Guineas. Loved his recent Cranbourne jumpout when he chased down a tearaway leader to just fail and they streeted the rest. Plenty of speed on here will allow him to settle and then unwind late. I think the $8 is over the odds. RECOMMENDATION (3) goes well here and his recent Sydney sojourn was highly productive. Looks the big danger.
SUGGESTED BET: Southport Tycoon to win at $8
TIPS: Southport Tycoon (10) 1, Recommendation (3) 2, Veight (8) 3, Sweet Ride (4) 4.
RACE 10: PIPER-HEIDSIECK BM78 HCP (1200m)
PEREILLE (6) is a talent and on the path to better races than this. Loved his run when resuming at Rosehill two weeks back when he hit the well late but just found Union Army a little better. His best win was at this track in August when he sat off them and then unleashed, He’ll try to do the same thing from the draw here. ZOU SENSATION (8) is a model of consistency and will be on speed.
SUGGESTED BET: Pereilleto to win at $2.40
TIPS: Pereille (6) 1, Zou Sensation (8) 2, Squad (7) 3, Shove Over (10) 4.
BEST BET: Pereille (race 10)
BEST VALUE: Southport Tycoon (race 9)
Originally published as Beating The Odds: Tony Thomas tips $8 chance to win Australia Stakes at the Valley
Pride Of Jenni crowned Australia’s top racehorse
After dazzling Australian racing with her bold frontrunning style, superstar mare Pride Of Jenni has been crowned Australian Racehorse of the Year in Adelaide on Tuesday night.
Ottobre gives Jenni’s Cox Plate lead-up wish
Ciaron Maher has plenty of options with star mare Pride Of Jenni but owner Tony Ottobre has given his preference for her last lead-up run before the Cox Plate.