Beating The Odds: Tony Thomas tips $6.50 best bet at Bendigo
Form expert Tony Thomas believes there is a good value to be found at Bendigo on Wednesday, including a $6.50 best bet.
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Leading trainers Mick Price and Mick Kent Jr prepare the day’s best bet in Race 2 at Bendigo on Wednesday.
RACE 1
Hard to go past ROLL ON HIGH, who was very good on debut when finishing hard closing stages to beat all but Grinzinger Belle at Hillside. Finds an easier contest, obviously fitter and no concern over wide draw as there is only the one turn to worry about from this start. Pretty short at the $3 mark, so going to take DECIDUOUS and LOMENIE with him in boxed exacta. Deciduous has had lots of support in three Sydney runs and has had issues. Change of scenery could help him. Lomenie has jumped out very well.
SUGGESTED BET: Take 2,11,12 in boxed exacta.
TIPS: Roll On High 1, Deciduous 2, Lomenie 3, Yototsu 4.
RACE 2
I like HYDROGEN POWER. He has always shown ability, including starting favourite in Saturday grade at Hillside back in May. Cost himself in two city starts last autumn by being tardily away. Jumped out very well at Cranbourne for his return and draws nicely. Suited this trip first-up and happy to take $6.50. HELLISH looks the danger. He hasn’t raced since a close sixth to Learning To Fly in the Inglis Millennium at Randwick. That’s strong form for a race like this and has also jumped out well.
SUGGESTED BET: Hydrogen Power to win at $6.50.
TIPS: Hydrogen Power 1, Hellish 2, Dulcet 3, Black Samurai 4.
RACE 3
Pretty keen to be with PURE PARADISE. She has six times more prizemoney than anything else in the race, courtesy of a Listed placing on debut at Caulfield last spring. She did fail here last start in July but not at home on the shifting track that day. Looked good in a recent jumpout when well held to the line. Gets the run of the race from this draw and looks over the odds at $5.50. PONDALOWIE trounced her rivals in a recent jumpout and looks to have plenty of ability. LUCKY PRIZE is honest and also trialled well last week.
SUGGESTED BET: Pure Paradise to win at $5.50
TIPS: Pure Paradise 1, Pondalowie 2, Lucky Prize 3, Barker 4.
RACE 4
Does look a good race for CELUI. Was brilliant leading all the way to win over this course and distance in December and not seen since leading into the straight in the Inglis Millennium at Randwick. Held back in the field but ran on well in a recent jumpout. Gets Ollie on board and should win. STARCONI has some ability and also looked good in a recent jumpout. Value play may be the two of them in boxed exacta.
SUGGESTED BET: 4,5 in boxed exacta.
TIPS: Celui 1, Starconi 2, Valois 3, Kasami 4.
RACE 5
There was a lot to like about the way SHOWIES BEST SHOT led all the way to win comfortably over this course and distance two weeks back. Can’t see any reason why she won’t do the same. In the same grade, carries only a half kilo over the limit when she carried 4kg over the limit last time and does look the leader again. Good value at $6. APEROL BLITZ has been good in two runs back and drops in class. The claim and good barrier will help.
SUGGESTED BET: Showies Best Shot to win at $6.
TIPS: Showies Best Shot 1, Aperol Blitz 2, Vancouver Queen 3, Golden Day 4.
RACE 6
What you know about FAM GORMAN is that he will stay all day and the further they go the better. He gave nothing else a chance winning at Bairnsdale and then battled on well behind Glamdam at Hillside when favourite. Draws perfectly to get the run of the race and drops in class. ROCKEBY ROAD also drops in grade after a fighting fourth to Donatrice at The Valley. Some query at the distance but rates highly.
SUGGESTED BET: Fam Gorman to win at $5.
TIPS: Fam Gorman 1, Rockeby Road 2, Handshake 3, Pearlman 4.
RACE 7
SIRIUS STATEMENT is ready to win. Reckon she is ready for the 1500m too. She was never going to win over 1300m here two weeks back but still battled on strongly in the run to the line. Draws a little awkwardly but just may be a bit too good for this lot. Happy to take $3.50. KILDRUMMIE wasn’t disgraced in Group 3 grade at The Valley in March. Resuming here but will welcome this grade and distance.
SUGGESTED BET: Sirius Statement 1, Kildrummie 2, Fly Lie 3, Toyz On Fire 4.
RACE 8
KINGS CONSORT has always had a touch of quality and this looks a perfect race for his return. He’s a Sandown Guineas placegetter after all. Resuming here but liked his recent jumpout when he was running on well under a good hold. More than happy to take $4.80 as reckon he will start much shorter come post time. BUOYANTSEA is a Group 3 and Listed winner in NZ and had strong support on Aussie debut but was eased down late. Will be much better here and the claim will help.
SUGGESTED BET: Kings Consort to win at $4.80.
TIPS: Kings Consort 1, Buoyantsea 2, Bel Air 3, Stripped Back 4.
RACE 9
VANKUKLA had heavy support in betting last start at Seymour but was slowly away and had to muster speed along the rails to hit the front on straightening. Tried hard in the run home and not beaten far on the line behind Just Jake. Don’t think he was ideally suited on the wet surface. Draws perfectly here and think $8.50 is over the odds. BELMIA hit the line well enough last 100m after being slowly away when resuming at Hillside and suited this grade.
SUGGESTED BET: Vankukla to win at $8.50
TIPS: Vankukla 1, Belmia 2, Saturn Star 3, Fagin 4.
BEST BET: Hydrogen Power (race 2)
BEST VALUE: Vankukla (race 9)
Originally published as Beating The Odds: Tony Thomas tips $6.50 best bet at Bendigo
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