Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained Bel Air the best bet for Saturday’s Flemington races
A significant weight drop will ensure the Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained Bel Air will be hard to hold out again at Saturday’s Flemington meeting.
Horse Racing
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News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s 10-race Flemington card.
BEST BET
BEL AIR (Race 9, No. 10)
Bel Air scored well under 62kg on New Year’s Day and should handle a step up in class with a 4.5kg weight drop at Flemington.
VALUE BET
CHEVALIER DU FAU (Race 8, No. 5)
The Patrick Payne-trained import was too strong at Warrnambool and has gone well at both 2000m. He’s a strong each-way chance.
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 3, 10/3, 4, 10/1, 2, 3, 4, 8/1, 5, 8, 13
$100 flexi for 55.5 per cent
BIG6
1, 2, 3, 4, 8/1, 5, 8, 13/1, 3, 9, 10/5, 13, 16, 17/10, 13/2, 6, 7
$100 flexi for 5.2 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 7: 1, 3, 9, 10
Race 8: 5, 13, 16, 17
Race 9: 10, 13
Race 10: 2, 6, 7
$100 flexi for 104 per cent
RACE 1: 12:15PM HOWDEN AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS DAY 2 MARCH (1600m)
Tricky small field to start the day. SUPARAZI (1) was strong when stepping up to 1600m and has gone well on a short back-up in the past. BERMADEZ (2) is racing well without winning and must be respected again here. BEEHUNTER (6) struggled soft ground in a stakes race but is much better suited at this level. MAHAMEDEIS (3) needs further but could run in to a placing first-up.
SUGGESTED BET: Trifecta 1, 2/1, 2/3, 6.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Bermadez $2 – $1.80.
RACE 2: 12:45PM VRC LIFE MEMBER ROBERT LANE TROPHY (2520m)
Even staying race but WINDS OF MARCH (11) is a stayer on the up and easily won at Seymour last time out. He could measure up. WERTHEIMER (5) scored a shock win at Geelong but he’s worth thought again here. ONE LAST KISS (9) is a talented type that ran on well at Geelong and placed over this trip at The Valley. GALILAEUS (8) went well at his Australian debut and should be better for that outing.
SUGGESTED BET: Winds Of March each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Galilaeus $2.90 – $2.10.
RACE 3: 1:20PM TOUR D’HORSE TROPHY (1200m)
KIKO (10) has been scratched from a couple of races recently but trainer Jim Conlan has found the perfect assignment here. HOOAH HAVANA (1) finished well to score first-up at Terang and should go close again. SOLD THA CAR (3) gave too much start but worked home OK at Stawell and races best over this trip. TICK TOCK BOOM (8) has a sound first-up record and could show up fresh.
SUGGESTED BET: Kiko to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Kiko $4 – $3.60.
RACE 4: 1:55PM BE A MATE, NOMINATE TROPHY (1100m)
A tough race for three-year-old fillies but SAVEE (10) could be worth a small each-way play at odds after her breakthrough win at Sale. She could continue to improve. PATCHOULI DREAM (4) led throughout to win first-up and could give them something to chase here. SPICY MARGS (3) will be better for two solid runs this time in. HERBERT PARK (8) wasn’t far away at Mornington and can improve with experience.
SUGGESTED BET: Small bet Savee each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Stefi Magnetica $4.80 – $2.80.
RACE 5: 2:30PM BLACK CAVIAR LIGHTNING RACE DAY 17 FEBRUARY (1100m)
Another open race down the Flemington straight course. KIN (4) will have no excuses fitness-wise after three solid runs this time in and it’s time for her to fire. CUTE AS (8) chased well first-up at Sandown and will be much fitter for it. IT’S KIND OF MAGIC (3) will find this much easier than her sound effort in a stakes race at Geelong. SANS DOUTE (2) was an easy winner down the straight last month and should go well again.
SUGGESTED BET: Kin to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Kin $2.90 – $2.60.
RACE 6: 3:05PM VRC LIFE MEMBER JOHN DALE MILE (1600m)
THE NEGOTIATOR (13) has come back to racing in great order, scoring first-up at Cranbourne before another good effort behind an all-the-way winner at Geelong. He’ll be thereabouts. BOTANY (5) chased well when resuming and will be fitter. EL SOLEADO (8) is racing consistently and is worth including again. ZAMBORGHINI (1) rises in weight but is in good form.
SUGGESTED BET: The Negotiator each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Naval Seal $8- $6.50.
RACE 7: 3:40PM VRC SUPER SATURDAY 9 MARCH (1200m)
Good sprint race with several chances. ZOU SENSATION (10) did a good job under 62kg at Geelong third-up and drops 7kg for this. JUNGLE JIM (1) was too quick for his rivals last Saturday and will be hard to run down again. REY MAGNERIO (3) is racing in great form and must be considered again. PINK BEAU TY (9) was too good at The Valley and can handle the class rise.
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 3, 9, 10
TAB MARKET MOVER: Rey Magnerio $3.80 – $3.
RACE 8: 4:20PM TAB AUSTRALIAN CUP RACE DAY 30 MARCH (2000m)
The big field suggests there will be good speed on, which will help CHEVALIER DU FAU (5) make ground from the second half of the field. He’ll be better for a strong first-up win. WHAKAMANA (13) has gone well in two runs back and will be fitter. BITCOIN (17) ran on soundly when resuming and is a 2000m winner. STORMY GREY (16) is a developing type that has drawn well.
SUGGESTED BET: Chevalier Du Fau each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Oceans Above $7.50 – $6.
RACE 9: 5:00PM VRC LIFE MEMBER DANIEL CONNELL TROPHY (1400m)
Another big field but BEL AIR (10) looks well placed to score again after his game win under 62kg on this track on New Year’s Day. FORTUNATE KISS (13) will be at peak fitness after three solid runs this time in and a good likely speed will suit. HELIX (17) was a shade unlucky when second on New Year’s Day and drops 6kg. SPACE TRACKER (12) went well at The Valley second-up and will be fitter.
SUGGESTED BET: Bel Air to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Bel Air $5.50 – $3.90.
RACE 10: 5:40PM VRC LIFE MEMBER ANTHONY YENCKEN SPRINT (100m)
Another straight race to end the day, which will suit MORNINGTON GLORY (6) after another consistent effort here last start. MANHATTAN THUNDER (7) ran on to score at The Valley first-up and could go on with it here. BIFROST (4) has won a couple first-up and is worth including in the exotics here. WIGGUM (2) is a talented sprinter that can perform well fresh down the straight.
SUGGESTED BET: Mornington Glory to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Johnny Rocker $6.50 – $3.80.
Originally published as Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained Bel Air the best bet for Saturday’s Flemington races
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