Warwick Farm best bets, inside mail for Wednesday, July 10, 2024

A much-hyped Godolphin gelding could well be unbeaten after going down by a nose last start but he can make amends when he heads to Warwick Farm on Wednesday.

Kerguelen can make amends for his narrow last start defeat when he heads to Warwick Farm on Wednesday. Picture: Bradley Photos

Form analyst for Racenet and The Daily Telegraph, Adam Sherry, analyses Wednesday’s midweek metro meeting at Warwick Farm.

WARWICK FARM TIPS

BEST BET
Race 7 No.11 KERGUELEN
The James Cummings-trained gelding blitzed his rivals on debut before a nose second last start. Ready to bounce back.

NEXT BEST
Race 4 No.5 MONARCHS BRAE
Was just caught late at Canterbury last start when stepping up to 1900m. Will be better for the run and looks tough to beat.

VALUE BET
Race 2 No.6 DRAMA DODGER
Charged home from last when a close second first-up. Is a winner on the heavy and will be right in the finish.

BET EXOTIC
Quinella Race 6 Nos: 4. 9

QUADDIE
Race 4: 3, 4, 5
Race 5: 2, 3, 4, 5
Race 6: 3, 4, 9
Race 7: 4, 5, 11

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Zac Lloyd is coming off a quartet at Randwick on Saturday and looks set for another big day.

WARWICK FARM INSIDE MAIL

Race 1: 2yo Handicap (1200m)
TARPAULIN (4) didn’t have the best of luck on debut when fourth to Straight Charge at Randwick on Dec 31. Returned from an extended break with a handy second to the very promising Mawjood over 1100m here on June 26. Can go one better. SCINTILLA (13) came from last when third on debut to Winning Proposal on a heavy track here two weeks ago. Will be improved by the experience. EVERYBODY RISE (3) closed was doing his best work late when third to Braveheart on debut on a heavy track on the Kensington on June 12.
Bet: Tarpaulin to win.

Race 2: 3yo Benchmark 64 (1200m)
DRAMA DODGER (7) was slow out and settled last before charging home on the inside to just miss catching Cosy Corner by a head over 1000m at Wyong first-up on June 27. She normally settles on or near the speed and expect her to jump better this time. Is one from on the heavy. PINK SHALALA (7) was an easing favourite ($2.15 to $2.60) when he resumed with a length and a half second to Mostro at Wyong on June 27. Will take improvement from the run. UNSTOPABULL (2) broke through two starts back before a third at Newcastle. Has claims.
Bet: Drama Dodger each-way.

Race 3: 3yo Maiden Handicap (1100m)
McKENZIE (7) makes his Australian debut for trainer Mitch Beer. Showed handy ability back in New Zealand with placings in three of his seven starts, two of those on heavy tracks. Hasn’t officially trialled here but drawn well and must be respected. LOVE AND LIGHT (3) will be improved by her first-up third behind Detendu on a Heavy 8 here two weeks ago. FIORENZA (8) chased home promising I Found You at her first start on the Kensington on June 12.
Bet: McKenzie each-way.

Race 4: 3yo+ Benchmark 72 (2130m)
MONARCHS BRAE (5) copped a couple of bumps when third to Elsie May over 1550m second-up at Canterbury on June 10 before a head second to Go Troppo over 1900m there nine days later. Hasn’t raced on the heavy but has trialled well on it. Went from 1500m up to 1900m and just peaked late when fourth to Go Troppo last start. Placed over 2011m in England. ELSIE MAY (3) followed her Canterbury win with a fourth to Space Age over 1600m here two weeks ago. Goes to 2130m for the first time. McGEEHAN (9) is coming off a tough win at Newcastle. He loves Warwick Farm and relishes the heavy conditions.
Bet: Monarchs Brae to win.

Race 5: 4yo+ Benchmark 72 (1000m)
WINGARDIUM (3) closed off last campaign with back-to-back placings at Canterbury in February. Showed she is ready kick off this preparation with two smart trial wins at Rosehill and Warwick Farm. Led in the first one and sat outside the leader in the second before cruising home under a hold to win by over a length. WORLD ALLIANCE (4) has won three of his six starts with a further two placings and wasn’t disgraced when fourth here on Jan 10. Resumed with a nice win at Hawkesbury and drops a couple of kilos. HI DUBAI (5) was checked in the straight when eighth to World Alliance first-up at Hawkesbury. Pay to forgive.
Bet: Wingardium to win.

Race 6: 3yo+ Benchmark 64 (1600m)
MOSTRO (9) failed to close off when resuming on the Kensington on June 12 before stepping up in trip and leading all-the-way to beat Pink Shalala over 1350m at Wyong on June 27. HEADLEY GRANGE (4) closed strongly between horses inside the last 200m to score over 1400m at Kembla. Finished just behind the placegetters at his next two starts in town including a fourth to Elouyou at Rosehill on June 29 after coming from last. Step up to 1600m looks ideal. MICKEY’S MEDAL (3) is racing well and should be in the finish again.
Bet: Mostro to win.

Race 7: 3yo+ Benchmark 72 (1300m)
KERGUELEN (11) was all the rage on debut and lived up to market expectations with a near 10 length win on a Heavy 9 at Kembla on May 18. Was nearly six weeks between runs, with an easy trial, when a nose second to Cool Jakey in a Bm72 here on June 26. Can atone. HANAU (4) was only fair when resuming with a fifth behind In Flight at Rosehill on June 15. Has since had an easy trial here on July 1 and races well second-up. THE REPLICANT (9) is back from a let-up after a solid first-up second to Ausbred Rising Sun here on May 8. Loves it wet. SWEYSIVE (5) resumes from a spell with two handy trial wins under his belt including a win on heavy ground here on July 1.
Bet: Kerguelen to win.

Originally published as Warwick Farm best bets, inside mail for Wednesday, July 10, 2024