THE LAST SAY: Best bets, inside mail and market movers for 2024 Victoria Derby Day at Flemington and Golden Eagle Day at Rosehill
El Castello attempts to capture a rare double in the Group 1 Victoria Derby, while Ascoli Piceno has been backed as if unbeatable in the Golden Eagle at Rosehill. Ray Thomas gives you all the information you need to back a winner today.
Opinion
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Japan’s top class filly Ascoli Piceno has been backed as if unbeatable in the $10 million Golden Rose (1500m) at Rosehill Gardens today.
One TAB Fixed Odds punter stands to collect nearly $500,000 after investing $98,000 at $4.60 on the overseas raider.
Ascoli Piceno is into $3.80 favourite for the Golden Eagle, the nation’s second-richest race, despite drawing wide in barrier 17.
Rosehill’s other feature race is the $3 million Russell Balding Stakes (1300m) in which The Everest winner Bella Nipotina is $2.20 favourite. If she wins as expected, it will take her career earnings over the $22 million prizemoney barrier – a staggering return on the $80,000 it cost her owners to secure here as a yearling at the Melbourne Premier Yearling Sale five years ago.
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At Flemington, the Derby Day meeting opens the Melbourne Cup Carnival with three Group 1 races including the $2 million Victoria Derby (2500m).
El Castello, on the back-up after winning the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes last week, is the $4 favourite despite drawing barrier 18.
The Group 1 $2 million Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) is shaping as a terrific showdown between crack colts Growing Empire ($3.60 favourite), Traffic Warden ($4.80) and Switzerland ($5).
Atishu ($4.60) shades Amelia’s Jewel ($6) for favouritism in the Group 1 $1 million Empire Rose Stakes (1600m).
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TRACK CONDITIONS
ROSEHILL GARDENS
Weather: Cool, cloudy with a forecast top temperature of 19c.
Track: Good (4).
Rail: True.
FLEMINGTON
Weather: Warm, sunny day with a forecast top temperature of 27c.
Track: Good (4).
Rail: True.
EAGLE FARM
Weather: Mild, partly cloudy day and a forecast top temperature of 24c.
Track: Good (4).
Rail: 1m out entire.
MORPHETTVILLE
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy day with a slight chance of a shower in the afternoon and a forecast top temperature of 27c.
Track: Good (4).
Rail: 9m out entire.
• JAMIE KAH EXCLUSIVE: ‘I’m hard on myself if I don’t ride everything perfect’
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BE WARY
Rosehill’s last meeting was back on October 12 where the rail was out 3m and it raced fairly. The rail is back in the true for the Golden Eagle and with the track improving to a Good 4 it should provide an even surface. Flemington’s rail is in the true position for Derby Day after being out 9m at the most recent meeting on October 5. Flemington is rated a Good 4 and there is no reason to expect Flemington won’t be anything but a fair track today.
• ‘He has grown, he feels great’: Hoop’s ominous Golden Eagle warning
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ROSEHILL TIPS: GOLDEN EAGLE DAY
THE BEST BET
STATE OF AMERICA (Race 3 No.2) has struck form with a vengeance, scoring dominant wins at Randwick and Warwick Farm by widening margins. He has unleashed an impressive burst of acceleration to take complete control of those two races. State Of America is a confident horse in great touch and he can bring up his hat-trick here.
THE NEXT BEST
FAWKNER PARK (Race 9 No.1) was in tremendous form last spring winning the Albury Cup, Wagga Cup and Q22 to close out his season. He was being aimed at the Cups in Melbourne but was disappointing first-up at Caulfield and was switched back to Sydney. Fawkner Park had over a month between runs before his good fifth in Lindermann’s Craven Plate last week. Fawkner Park sprinted quickly from the top of the straight and looked set to be in the finish but peaked on his run about 100m out. He’s on the back-up but will strip fitter.
VALUE BET
ENCAP (Race 8 No.6) is an underrated but very genuine racehorse. He was Group 1-placed in the Golden Rose last season and has returned in top form this spring, winning the Group 2 Theo Marks Stakes despite enduring a wide run. He then ran a blinder in the Alan Brown Stakes, finishing fast along the inside for fourth. He has the rails barrier and will need luck in a star-studded Golden Eagle but at $23 he is very good each way value.
THE WHISPER
ASCOLI PICENO (Race 8 No.19) is a huge tip for the Golden Eagle. The brilliant Japanese filly has won four of her six starts, finishing second in the other two, and is already a Group 1 winner. She got out to $6 soon after drawing barrier 17 on Tuesday but has since been sensationally backed into $3.80 favouritism including a monster bet of $98,000 at $4.60. Ascoli Piceno is obviously very talented and she might be just too good for her Golden Eagle rivals.
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FLEMINGTON TIPS: VICTORIA DERBY DAY
THE BEST BET
POWERS OF OPAL (Race 5 No.5) has shown considerable staying potential and broke her maiden at her sixth attempt when she bolted in by nearly six lengths against older horses at Hawkesbury. Her sectionals were very impressive as she sprinted home in 33.47s for her final 600m without being pushed out. James McDonald went to the provincial meeting for just the one ride that day on Powers Of Opal and he stays on the filly in the Wakeful Stakes. The big Flemington track and 2000m will suit her.
NEXT BEST
JIMMYSTAR (Race 4 No.5) was very good first-up at Caulfield, finishing powerfully to win with ease then defied the bias to take out the Weekend Hussler Stakes at the same track even more impressively. He’s flying this spring and champion jockey Blake Shinn seems to have the key to chestnut. Trainer Ciaron Maher has a strong hand in The Damien Oliver with Jimmystar and Another Wil but I’m leaning the former’s way to lead home the stable quinella.
The punters roar for Jimmy! 💥
— Racing.com (@Racing) October 12, 2024
Jimmysstar destroys his opposition & gives Blake Shinn his 2000th career winner in the saddle ðŸ¤@cmaherracingpic.twitter.com/5vXA9cukK4
VALUE BET
KIMOCHI (Race 8 No.6) is an underrated mare who was placed three times at Group 1 level last season. She resumed this spring with a good win in the Toy Show Quality and has since run very competitive fourths in the Manikato Stakes and Silver Eagle. She’s back against the mares here in the Empire Rose Stakes, she has the rails barrier and Hall of Fame rider Hugh Bowman. Kimochi ticks a lot of boxes yet she is very good value at $15 for the Empire Rose Stakes.
KIMOCHI wins the Toy Show Quality!
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) August 24, 2024
Jason Collett guides the @GaryPortelli trained mare to a tough first-up win in the Group 3 over Commemorative with Mumbai Muse a close third. @tabcomau@YulongInvestpic.twitter.com/hDeZXkGrNv
THE WHISPER
KING OF THUNDER (Race 7 No.8) only won his maiden at Kembla three starts back but he showed in The Vase last week that he is going to be very hard to beat in the Victoria Derby. King Of Thunder wasn’t entirely comfortable around The Valley but it was hard to miss his fast-finishing effort to run a close third to Red Aces in The Vase. King Of Thunder will appreciate going out to 2500m on the big Flemington track.
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TAB FIXED ODDS BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS
ROSEHILL GARDENS
Race 1: Lambay $8-$5.50 with a bet of $2200 at $6
Race 2: Asgarda $6-$3.40, Pippie Beach $4.60-$3.60
Race 3: United Kingdom $6-$5.50, State Of America $8-$6
Race 4: Fire Star $4.60-$3.40, Iron Man $6-$4.40
Race 5: Alabama State $8-$6.50
Race 6: Left Field $11-$5.50
Race 7: Bella Nipotina $2.80-$2.40 with a bet of $2895 at $2.60
Race 8: Ascoli Piceno $5-$3.70 with bets of $98,000 at $4.60, and $2000 at $4, Lazzat $6.50-$6
Race 9: Relentless Voyager $8-$6, Saganti $8-$7
Race 10: Bullets High $8-$4.60 after a bet of $2290 at $5.50, Battleton $15-$5 with a bet of $2290 at $6
• TIPS FROM THE BIG BOOKIES: Victoria Derby Day, Golden Eagle Day
FLEMINGTON
Race 1: Feroce $2.10-$2 with a bet of $2250 at $2.10, Aeliana $4.20-$4, Acta Non Verba $21-$14
Race 2: Matisse $11-$7, Good Sort $11-$8 with a bet of $2000 e/w at $8.50/$3.10, Zeitung $9.50-$9, Stage ‘n’ Screen $17-$9.50
Race 3: Schwarz $5-$3.60, Rey Magnerio $4-$3.90, Maharba $13-$10
Race 4: Jimmysstar $2.80-$2.70 with a bet of $1410 at $3.30/$1.50, Another Wil $4-$3.40
Race 5: Powers Of Opal $2.60-$2.40, Treasurethe Moment $9-$3.80, Shockletz $41-$21
Race 6: Growing Empire $4.20-$3.70, Traffic Warden $4.20-$4.40-$4-$4.20, Lady Of Camelot $8-$6.50, Bellatrix Star $13-$8.50
Race 7: El Castello $3.80-$3.50-$3.80, King Of Thunder $7.50-$6, Politely Dun $17-$10, Goldrush Guru $15-$10 with a bet of $1000 e/w at $13/$3.80
Race 8: Plenty Of Ammo $8.50-$6.50
Race 9: Pharari $6-$5.50, Sans Doute $10-$6.50 with a $2200 bet at $9, A Little Deep $10-$7, Katsu $5-$4.20, Holy Racket $6-$5 with a $4000 bet at $6
• BIG BETS: Victoria Derby roughie backed to win more than $300,000
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EAGLE FARM BEST BETS
Race 5 No.4 APPIN GIRL
Race 9 No.10 EXOTIQUE MISS
MORPHETTVILLE BEST BETS
Race 2 No.2 TOP CALIBRE
Race 6 No.10 BEAUTY BOUND
NEWCASTLE BEST BETS
Race 7 No.3 BESTOWER
Race 3 No.3 AMUSING
• EXPERT TIPS: Greg Polson’s tips and rated prices for Newcastle and Rosehill
#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners
Originally published as THE LAST SAY: Best bets, inside mail and market movers for 2024 Victoria Derby Day at Flemington and Golden Eagle Day at Rosehill
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