NewsBite

Ray Thomas, Shayne O’Cass tips, analysis for all 10 races at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

Shayne O’Cass thinks he’s found massive value in an import who’s been trialling ‘fantastic’, while Ray Thomas advises punters to look for the Exit in an early race.

Racenet
10 min read
July 4, 2025 - 9:02AM

Form analysts Ray Thomas and Shayne O’Cass debate the chances on the 10-race Winter Stakes meeting at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

Shayno thinks he’s found massive value in $71 pop VALIMI (Race 10 No.14), an import who’s been trialling ‘fantastic’, while Ray advises punters to stick with EXIT FEE (Race 3 No.6).

• PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet’s team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW!

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RAY’S BEST BET
Race 3 No.6 EXIT FEE

RAY’S BEST VALUE
Race 8 No.13 COSMONOVA

SHAYNO’S BEST BET
Race 9 No.14 RUBY FLYER

SHAYNO’S BEST VALUE
Race 10 No.14 VALIMI

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 1: Thanks You ATC Members Hcp (1100m)

Ray Thomas: I was taken by RAGING FORCE (1)’s win at Kensington when he led throughout to win easing down by four lengths. This came after an easy first-up win in the Red Crown at Muswellbrook. Promising colt who is destined for big things in the spring. His danger is HORSESHOE HILL (11). She was very impressive winning her maiden at Hawkesbury and is right up to Saturday grade. CAESAR (7) has looked very good in successive barrier trials and is one to watch.

Shayne O’Cass: MARCHON (9), by Wootton Bassett out of Ottawa Stakes placegetter Marchena, was just gliding along throughout when he won his June 20 heat here. I concede race experience is gold, particularly with two-year-olds, so RAGING FORCE (1) commands respect.

• Clinton Payne’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 2: Midway Hcp (1200m)

Thomas: ZOURIPPER (1) looked good winning first-up at Kembla last start, Shayno. It was only a class 1 but he made light of 60kg and showed good acceleration to come from off speed and win by a widening margin. He gets into this race with 55kg after the claim and will go close. IRON MAN (1) is a dual acceptor (he’s third emergency for race 7) but he does look very hard to beat if he starts in this race. Trainer Kerry Parker has a couple of good each way chances with EQUILIBRIST (7) and CLOSE ENCOUNTER (10).

O’Cass: RT, it’s funny how pedigrees work sometimes because Trapeze Artist was a ‘duffer’ on wet tracks yet here’s one of his sons EQUILIBRIST (7) who ploughs through the slop. I wonder if it has anything to do with the fact that his fourth dam is Easy Date, the mother of the brilliant Snippets who was an absolute swimmer. Whether it is heavy or soft, Equilibrist is in good nick to win this. NOBLE SOLDIER (2)’s ‘best’ is better than any of his rivals. He was good enough first-up in a much deeper race than this one.

• Rosehill Turf Talk: Best bet gets a key gear change, plus a $71 tip

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 3: TAB Highway (1200m)

Thomas: EXIT FEE (6) was heavily backed first-up at Randwick and ran on well for a close second to the speedy Calico Miss in a Highway. He looked to have his chance the other day but will be improved by the run. Drawn to get all the favours and he does go well this track. LUNAITE (4) would have been top pick with a better barrier. Gate 22 looks terrible on paper but she will come into barrier 14 after the emergencies come out. She was very competitive in a strong form race last start. Bengal won a Highway first-up then finished unplaced in the same race that Lunaite contested. He’s worth another chance. MARTINI MUMMA (5) is also back in her right grade.

O’Cass: I’ve gone with one of racing’s real bargain basement buys, LET’S GO BRANDON (10) who was bought online in May 2024 for $1,250. He’s already won $37,125 in four starts and take it to the bank, it should be $13,000 more had he not thrown away a potential debut win at Canberra on Black Opal Day. He’s got his act together now with back to back wins and he’s not done with yet. There is nothing like Highway form for a Highway. Enter your selection, RT, and that’s EXIT FEE (6) who has won one and was runner-up to Lisztomania in another. SHOW ‘EM HOWL (21) was huge in his Highway debut.

• Racing Confidential: J-Mac unlikely to ride again this season

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 4: The Agency Real Estate Hcp (1300m)

Thomas: CODETTA (1) has been placed in two starts this track since resuming, and she has been luckless in both. She was held up in the straight until charging through for second behind King’s Secret (who has since won again) then she was trapped three-wide without cover before a game third to Winning Proposal. Codetta was a beaten favourite last start but she lost no admirers in defeat. I’ve been on her both starts and have to stay with her, Shayno, particularly now she is up to 1300m. GATEKEEPER (7) is a very interesting runner. He’s superbly-bred, won nicely on debut, and resumes off two easy trials, the most recent when he was desperate to go faster. DIDDLE DUMPLING (4) and GOLDEN STRAAND (8) both come off big wins at Gosford.

O’Cass: How about DIDDLE DUMPLING (4)’s form, RT. She had four runs as a two-year-old including back-to-back fifths in Manaal’s Sweet Embrace and in the Percy Sykes (Lady of Camelot was second). Then she opened her three-year-old season with a second to Aeliana! Not surprisingly, Diddle Dumpling bolted in at Wyong first-up and she is well up to Saturday city grade. Riff Rocket’s little half-sister CODETTA (1) is your rolled-gold model of consistency. Paid the price for her 7 of 9 alley last time and hasn’t fared any better this weekend either. Nakeeta Jane’s son GATEKEEPER (7) could have a high ceiling.

• ‘Our best-ever season’: Darby tons up … and the winners keep coming

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 5: 50 Year And Life Member Hcp (1100m)

Thomas: I wasn’t sure which way to go here, Shayno, but landed on TARPAULIN (5). He showed promise with successive wins on winter tracks last year then he was tested at stakes level where he ran competitively to just miss a place in the Danehill Stakes last spring. He resumes off a long spell but he trialled brilliantly at Canterbury. SHALL BE (4) has his share of ability and does go well fresh. I’m wary of STORM THE RAMPARTS (1). He is flying this campaign and just missed notching a hat-trick of wins last start. He carries weight well and makes his own luck racing on speed. POKERJACK (6) is an each-way contender.

O’Cass: I’m also with TARPAULIN (5). There was a bit of a boom on him this time last year when he won those two midweeks late in his two-year-old season. His best run since then, and so far, was his fourth in the Danehill Stakes last spring. He has been off the scene a fair while but his trials indicate a happy and healthy horse ready to race. He loves the wet too. But he’ll have to be right up to the mark to beat a very fit and in-form STORM THE RAMPARTS (1). That said, he is right up in the weights. SHALL BE (4) is fast, drawn well, has 2kg off and excels on wet ground.

• Pride has eyes on weather for Winter Stakes top seed

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 6: Captivant At Kia Ora Hcp (1100m)

Thomas: If winning becomes a habit then I’ll go with WINNING PROPOSAL (2), Shayno. She’s always been a filly of talent and finally had luck go her way with a tough win over this course and distance last start. She finds herself in a fillies and mares race and is not badly weighted after the claim. HI DUBAI (1) has run two excellent races since resuming and this is an easier assignment. USEAPIN (7) and LONHRO’S QUEEN (5) both have a powerful finishing surge and are value chances.

O’Cass: QUEEN OF THE MILE (3) has turned in more good runs than bad ones, and by far. It is just plain to see that the race that what best suits her is a Saturday city Benchmark 78. So much so that this Saturday will be her sixth ‘78’ in a row subsequent to her noteworthy third in the Magic Millions 3&4YO at Wyong on Dec 28. The caveat is she needs it to dry out. USEAPIN (7) is well up to winning this and I made her my best bet last time but she was scratched. I’ve got to mention her nonetheless.

• Sistina’s a special but still plenty of intrigue for horse of the year gongs

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 7: Catanach’s Jewellers Hcp (2000m)

Thomas: GENTILESCHI (14) bumped into a smart type when chasing home She’s Unusual over 1800m at Randwick last start. Although no match for the winner, Gentileschi beat the rest of her rivals convincingly and is ready to win. ASSAILANT (17), a former English galloper, has shaped promisingly in two Australian starts for trainers Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. He puts himself into his races early and is tough under pressure. SOUNDS UNUSUAL (7) is worth another chance now he’s up to 2000m and imported galloper NELLIE LEYLAX (1) has a wide barrier and big weight but has ability, too.

O’Cass: GUZUMPED (18) is an emergency with no jockey but I’m hoping he gets a run, RT. I have been ‘on’ the son of Dundeel both runs this preparation and they haven’t been at all bad. Third-up, loves the wet and loves 2000m. No one could have missed Ortensia’s granddaughter GENTILESCHI (14) in that 1800m Benchmark 78 at Randwick on June 21. You have found her, Ray, and I understand why as she looks ready for 2000m again and excels with the sting out. Don’t forget GOOD BANTER (15) won the Adrian Knox on a Heavy 9.

• Kosciuszko build-up begins without defending champ

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 8: Foundation Female Member Hcp (1200m)

Thomas: Did you know COSMONOVA (13) is unbeaten third-up from a spell? I think she is ready to maintain that record after two solid efforts this campaign including her closing third at Randwick last start. I don’t mind her barrier because if she can slide across and find cover then she is going to be hard to hold out. DOLLAR MAGIC (14), racing’s professional placegetter, will be in the mix again and KING OF ROSEAU (11) really attacked the line to score here last start but he has to come back slightly in trip. WORLD ALLIANCE (8) will be charging home and Bunker Hut always races well fresh.

O’Cass: I didn’t realise that statistic about COSMONOVA (13) and concede she has a great chance. In saying that, I want to be with FLEETWOOD (4). He is something of a rarity at Godolphin given he was bought not bred. They must have liked him because $160,000 is not an insignificant sum for an Encryption yearling. He has turned out to be another canny buy for the Royal Blue, having won five races and more than $330,000 in a relatively short time. Best of all, he is unbeaten in both starts on Heavy. BUNKER HUT (3) has an inviting and enticing set of numbers right across the board except maybe that he hasn’t won on heavy and all his best form is on good tracks.

• The awesome story behind talented 2yo’s namesake

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 9: Winter Stakes (1400m)

Thomas: WELWAL (2) had five weeks between runs when he finished strongly for second behind Headley Grange in the Civic Stakes. The winner is in rare form and Welwal ran a blinder to get within a half-length. He will be fitter and handles soft tracks. In a race of many chances THUNDERLIPS (10) is in career-best form and on the seven-day back-up after his fast-finishing win at Rosehill over 1500m. WHINCHAT (8) has again drawn wide but if he breaks cleanly and races on speed, he will take running down. ACCREDITED (4) bounced back to winning form on the drying track last start. His chances soar if the track is closer to good than heavy.

O’Cass: RUBY FLYER (14) is the sort of horse who could make his presence felt in The Big Dance if he got there and it was pouring cats and dogs on the day. My point there is that he is one of the best muddies racing all day on Saturday, he is a Randwick Mile winner and was placed in a Rowley Mile. This is 1400m of course but no less suitable for the Brad Widdup-trained gelding. WELWAL (2) was given the perfect ride by Tommy Berry when ripping into the margin behind Headley Grange last start. He is getting oh so close. ASTERO (11) is always underrated.

• Berry confident in Welwal’s wet track advantage

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

RACE 10: Asahi Super Dry Hcp (1400m)

Thomas: KERGUELEN (5) went up sharply in grade but was sent out a short-priced favourite before finishing an even fourth to Accredited. He looked to have every chance but still stuck to his task and was beaten just over a length. Kerguelen is back in his right grade and is drawn to get the run of the race. SACRED ROCKS (12) produced an amazing effort to win over 1300m here three weeks ago. She has drawn off the track but she will go back early and charge home. BRAVE ONE (10) drew wide and covered extra ground but was still too classy at Randwick. The barrier is the concern again. LITTLE COINTREAU (8) doesn’t run a bad race. I know what you like in the last, Shayno and if it wins, to use one of your phrases, you will be a hero to a nation.

O’Cass: I’m with VALIMI (14), RT! This is the French import with Kris Lees whose form back home includes three stakes race appearances, most notably the 2023 French 2000 Guineas where he ran fifth. What about his Australian runs? They weren’t great, that is true, but it would seem to be that he can only go on soft and/or heavy tracks. His trials were just fantastic too. At $71, I think Valimi is over the odds and will run a big race. Joe Pride-trained horses seem to hold to their form like no other trainer and for that reason alone, LITTLE COINTREAU (8) has to go in somewhere.

• Shayne O’Cass’s race-by-race tips, analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

Originally published as Ray Thomas, Shayne O’Cass tips, analysis for all 10 races at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

Add your comment to this story

To join the conversation, please Don't have an account? Register

Join the conversation, you are commenting as Logout

More related stories

Original URL: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/horse-racing/tips/ray-thomas-shayne-ocass-tips-analysis-for-all-10-races-at-rosehill-gardens-on-saturday/news-story/fef3c27e3cd771478258ebd1b79d0465