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‘Looks a good thing’: Ray and Duff analyse all 10 races at Randwick on Day 1 of The Championships 2024

Ron Dufficy is confident his best bet at Randwick on Saturday only needs even luck to be getting the cash. Get Ray and Duff’s tips and race-by-race analysis for Day 1 of The Championships.

Ray Thomas
10 min read
April 5, 2024 - 11:12AM
Punters Hold All Tickets 2024 (Episode 30) 06-04-24

Racenet’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central form analyst Ron Dufficy preview all 10 races on Day 1 of The Championships at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

DUFF’S BEST BET
R5 No.1 BANDI’S BOY

DUFF’S NEXT BEST
R9 No.14 ZARDOZI

R1: Kindergarten Stakes (1100m)

Ron Dufficy: I have to go with ESPIONAGE (1), he is a good colt. He has had a month and a trial since missing the Golden Slipper, but his recent trial was good enough and he should be hard enough to beat back to 1100m here. I thought the danger was EMBASSY (3) who looks good odds. He’s had a freshen and a lovely trial since the Silver Slipper and it looks a target for him. He’s got a beautiful draw to stalk the speed and be very competitive. ROSELYN’S STAR (4) is a very sharp colt who could well be the new kid on the block. Obviously like most here, he has no wet track experience.

Ray Thomas: The two-year-olds have not raced on a heavy track before which makes this an even more difficult race to assess. I am leaning to ESPIONAGE (1). He’s a Breeders Plate winner and unluckily missed a Golden Slipper start. He’s strong at the end of his races and that might give him the edge over the speedy ROSELYN’S STAR (4). EMBASSY (3) is an improver and HEZDARNHOTTOO (5) will take catching.

R2: Chairman’s Quality (2600m)

Dufficy: I am convinced CIRCLE OF FIRE (11) is going to be the best horse in the race but I’m not convinced that he is wound right up for this. However, I can’t let him go and from this stable, they usually have them pretty fit. So second-up, 2600m on a Heavy track, is just a little query with him but I just think he is the best horse. I think the danger could be YANKEE HUSSEL (10). Her past few runs are much better than what they read on paper and she might get a degree of control up front here and give plenty of cheek. VERONA (8), another Maher runner, sets up well. She is a strong mare who can stay and she does love it wet. MANZOICE (3) has been slowly, slowly improving and he did win a Victoria Derby on a Soft 7 so maybe this could well be his day after 525-days since his last win.

Thomas: MANZOICE (3) ran his best race for ages when second in the Manion Cup last start. He’s a query on the heavy track but seems to be getting back to top form. STOCKMAN (2) excels on wet tracks. His recent form is solid but the heavy track puts him right into the frame. YANKEE HUSSEL (10) is an improving mare and CIRCLE OF FIRE (11) is a young stayer with promise.

R3: Carbine Club Stakes (1600m)

Dufficy: I don’t like the draw but I think TANNHAUSER (5) will do something here. He is a better horse than what his form suggests – I am expecting big improvement from him. At his only start at this track and distance, he was close up behind Tom Kitten in the Fernhill on a Heavy so that gives him a tick there. DUCASSE (3) is back in distance and mapping well from a good draw. He seems well-placed in a race like this with Blake Shinn on. WITZ END (2) is the unknown. The Kiwi looks progressive and is in a good yard. They wouldn’t be here unless they thought he was going to be competitive. KINTYRE (6) is just so honest, so tough and genuine. He just didn’t run out the 2000m last week and backing up is usually a good sign on these testing tracks.

Thomas: Another difficult race to assess as not one runner in this capacity 20-horse field has been tested on a heavy track. I’ve landed on the very game KINTYRE (6). He’s on the quick back-up after his close fourth in the Tulloch Stakes over 2000m so he’s very fit for this 1600m test on a wet track. GROUNDRUSH (12) is another rock-hard fit and in very good form. He’s drawn the car park but will be finishing strongly. LES VAMPIRES (4) will race on speed and could take catching. MCHALE (10) has been impressive winning both starts this campaign.

R4: Adrian Knox Stakes (2000m)

Dufficy: I didn’t want to tip AUTUMN ANGEL (1) because she missed a run last week and obviously she has to give these fillies a lot of weight but the more I look at it, she has just got so much class on this field. I have to go her way. I think KIND WORDS (8) can run well. I expected a touch more at Kembla but I am waiting for her to get up over a bit of ground and she was an easy winner at her only Heavy track attempt so I think she is a big improver here. PRIVATE LEGACY (7) is the other one. She’s got some form around the right horses throughout her career and she is building up to do something here. WAIKATO GIRL (3) was also good at Kembla Grange and she’s got the pedigree to continue to improve over further.

Thomas: AUTUMN ANGEL (1) was a raceday scratching last week but gets her chance here. Classy filly who was impressive winning the Kewney Stakes. Untested on a heavy track but still the one to beat. PRIVATE LEGACY (7) ran on well in the Kembla Grange Classic to just miss a place. Improving filly set to run a competitive race. HEAVEN BOUND (5) is still a maiden but she’s showing staying potential. WAIKATO GIRL (3) is another emerging filly coming off a good third in the Kembla Grange Classic and she is bred to handle wet track.

R5: Country Championships Final (1400m)

Dufficy: BANDI’S BOY (1) looks a good thing. He has all the form in the world for this race. He’s won three of four this prep including a Group 3 last week. He handles all conditions and with even luck, he wins. I think the best longshot is RUSSLEY CROWN (3). He was very good winning first-up at Tamworth. He’s got a good looking record now and he is somewhat the forgotten horse and he will give a lot of cheek up front. GALLANT STAR (10) only comes out of the Coonamble Heat but he had excuses there getting too far back and all his Randwick runs are great. And I’ll throw in ATMOSPHERIC ROCK (12), the stablemate of the favourite. He was good alongside Bandi’s Boy at Moruya and I think he might be a touch over the odds.

Thomas: I’m leaning to GALLANT STAR (10) at the odds. He’s a talented sprinter with a strong finishing burst. If he handles the heavy track, he will be hard to hold out. No knock on BANDI’S BOY (1), who was dynamic winning the Group 3 Star Kingdom Stakes last week. He’s won on a bottomless track previously and might just be too good for this field. BIANCO VILANO (2) and AGIRLSBESTFRIEND (16) can run competitive races.

R6: Inglis Sires (1400m)

Dufficy: STORM BOY (1) suffered his first defeat in the Golden Slipper but definitely had excuses there. He has promised to be better over further and he gets his chance to regain his crown. TRAFFIC WARDEN (3) is proven at 1400m and should have got a whole lot closer in the Slipper. He did run second to Storm Boy at his only run on the Soft earlier in his two-year-old career. He is right in this. He had to love the way MANAAL (10) savaged the line in the Slipper with this race in mind. She’ll be primed for this. I thought the best longshot was ANODE (5). He’s on the back-up and was tough in a fast race last week. The timing looks right for him.

Thomas: The top five finishers in the Golden Slipper are backing up in the Sires. STORM BOY (1) was the beaten favourite when third in the Slipper but he had excuses that day. I like his barrier draw; it gives jockey James McDonald options and he can put the colt into a controlling position on speed. LADY OF CAMELOT (9) was very brave in the Golden Slipper and the way she attacked the lines suggests she should run a strong 1400m. TRAFFIC WARDEN (3) won the VRC Sires and was unlucky in the Golden Slipper. He’s right in this race. FEARLESS (6) is an underrated colt who got his maiden out of the way at Newcastle. He will be running on.

R7: TJ Smith Stakes (1200m)

Dufficy: I WISH I WIN (1) is an outstanding horse. He won this race on a Heavy 9 third-up last year. It’s not easy first-up in these conditions but he is such a good horse so I will go with him. I think SUNSHINE IN PARIS (11) is the danger. She’s an untapped talent. She did more than enough in the wrong part of the track first-up and 1200m suits her better although she has no Heavy track experience, I am happy to take her on trust. MAGIC TIME (13) is up in class but was ridden a touch close in the Newmarket and I thought she was very good. Her form on the Heavy track here last year was great. And I will throw in MAZU (3) only because it is the first wet track he has found in a while and when he has had that in the past, he has been up with the best sprinters in the land.

Thomas: IMPERATRIZ (8), chasing her 11th Group 1 win, is the one to beat. She’s a super mare with a tremendous will-to-win and has heavy track form. I WISH I WIN (1) won this race last year and ran second in The Everest during spring. He’s first-up here but has been specifically set for this race. SUNSHINE IN PARIS (11) is an outstanding mare who was unlucky when a close second in The Galaxy. The heavy track is a query with her. MAZU (3) is the best wet-tracker in the field and he comes right into the race now.

R8: Doncaster Mile (1600m)

Dufficy: I think the Doncaster Mile, especially on a wet track, needs a good, tough, seasoned horse with maturity and I think that horse is DETONATOR JACK (8). I just feel he was very good, loomed-up, knocked-up, first-up and won’t know himself with the light weight. He can race closer than midfield and he’s going to power through the line here at good odds. CELESTIAL LEGEND (19) is a good three-year-old. I wish it was Soft rather than Heavy for him but everything points to him being very competitive here. MILITARIZE (4) is similar. It is a typical Waller set-up for him. He presents well and is ready to run a strong wet Randwick Mile as well and obviously he bolted in in the Sires’ on a Heavy track as a two-year-old so no problems there. And OBAMBURUMAI (2) would have been a lot further up the tipping list here if it would have been a little bit drier. He is just a little unknown and not enough evidence but he is a very, very good horse.

Thomas: CELESTIAL LEGEND (19) was never on the track in the Randwick Guineas but still found a way to beat MILITARIZE (4). Celestial Legend drops to 49kg – he meets Militarize on 5kg better weight terms – and has drawn the get the right run. DEMOCRACY MANIFEST (13) handles heavy tracks, he has a strong finishing burst and is a great lightweight chance at odds. THINK ABOUT IT (1) has to carry 57kg in the mud but he’s such a class act and will give a great sight. ANOTHER WIL (18) is very talented but will need luck from his wide draw.

R9: ATC Australian Derby (2400m)

Dufficy: I like ZARDOZI (14) a lot. She’s on the back-up on the wet track. She went up against a very good filly last week and competed well. She is ready for the mile-and-a-half on a back-up and with different form is very hard to beat. I think CEOLWULF (3) is the danger. I have been waiting for him and he looks ready for this race. Shinn sticks and he gets his chance to put his hand up now. TOM KITTEN (2) is ready to try 2400m now and he was very good winning the Fernhill on a Heavy last year. He was on the wrong part of the track last start and had excuses prior to that. And RIFF ROCKET (1) posted a terrific win in fast time last start and sets himself up well with no Heavy track experience.

Thomas: RIFF ROCKET (1), the Victoria Derby-winner last spring, was outstanding in the Rosehill Guineas last start, finishing powerfully to win well. He’s a deserved favourite but there is that question mark about the heavy track. ZARDOZI (14) is a very good filly on the quick back-up, she will get through the conditions and looms as the main danger. CEOLWULF (3) worked to the line well for second in the Rosehill Guineas and he’s a definite threat here. WYMARK (7) has won four in succession and will be very competitive again.

R10: PJ Bell Stakes (1200m)

Dufficy: I am having a throw at the stumps with MIRAVAL ROSE (6) here. She is a very sharp filly. Her two Cranbourne jump-outs have been just unbelievable and although I don’t like tipping them first-up on Heavy tracks, I have to be with her. LEARNING TO FLY (1) has had five weeks and back to 1200m looks suitable. She has a touch of class on her side and is well placed here. FRENCH ENDEAVOUR (11) is the strong type if these fillies are out on their feet late here – I am anticipating she is charging over the top of them at good odds. COMMEMORATIVE (12) has always had a really good rap and resuming with a win, she might be able to go on with the job.

Thomas: COMMEMORATIVE (12) scored a stunning first-up win, treating her older rivals with contempt. She’s a very promising filly unbeaten on soft tracks. LEARNING TO FLY (1) is another very talented filly improved by recent racing and favoured by the draw. FACILE (9) will take catching and MIRAVAL ROSE (6) is ready to sprint well fresh.

Originally published as ‘Looks a good thing’: Ray and Duff analyse all 10 races at Randwick on Day 1 of The Championships 2024

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Original URL: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/horse-racing/tips/looks-a-good-thing-ray-and-duff-analyse-all-10-races-at-randwick-on-day-1-of-the-championships-2024/news-story/263f40b8b165d1e0148f3597b60f50b1