Early Oil: Brad Waters’ tips, quaddie selections and race-by-race analysis for Caulfield on Saturday

The Pride Of Jenni vs. Mr Brightside clash in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes highlights a ripping day of racing at Caulfield on Saturday. Here are Brad Waters’ best bets for the program.

Growing Empire ridden by Ethan Brown wins the Xtreme Freight Valley Pearl at Moonee Valley Racecourse on March 23, 2024 in Moonee Ponds, Australia. (Photo by George Sal/Racing Photos)

News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Group 1 Memsie Stakes meeting at Caulfield.

• Cameron Happ’s early tips for Caulfield: $5.50 value bet

• Clinton Payne’s tips, runner-by-runner analysis for Group 1 Memsie Stakes

• Victoria to increase penalties for jockey offences

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BEST BET
GROWING EMPIRE (Race 6, No. 1)
Exciting colt at that scored easily in Adelaide before a spell. He has trialled well and should be tough to run down first-up.

VALUE BET
CASTE (Race 7, No. 13)
Caste returned from a spell with a solid effort over this course last start. Her second-up record is strong, and she’ll be improved on Saturday.

EARLY QUADDIE
10, 11, 13, 15/3, 8, 11, 12/1, 2, 3, 4/1, 3, 6
$100 flexi for 52 per cent

BIG6
1, 2, 3, 4/1, 3, 6/2, 8, 9, 13/1, 2, 5, 14/1, 7/ 1, 2, 4
$100 flexi for 8.7 per cent

QUADDIE
Race 7: 2, 8, 9, 13
Race 8: 1, 2, 5, 14
Race 9: 1, 7
Race 10: 1, 2, 4
$100 flexi for 104 per cent

• ‘Bought it on emotion’: How Mr Brightside owner secured Derby favourite

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RACE 1: 12:05PM SPORTSBET RACE REPLAYS HANDICAP (1400m)
Windy conditions are likely again on Saturday, which could prove tricky. SASSY BOOM (3) is a first-up winner that looked strong in a jumpout at Kilmore leading up to this. RUMBLED AGAIN (2) likes 1400m and went well in a star-studded jumpout at Cranbourne. VIVY AIR (9) was solid in Sydney first-up and is yet to miss a place second-up. LOVAZOU (4) is racing in great form and will be fitter.
SUGGESTED BET: Sassy Boom to win with a small bet on Rumbled Again.
MARKET MOVER: Vivy Air $4.80 – $3.20.

RACE 2: 12:35PM STOW ROBOTICS HANDICAP (1400m)
THE OPEN (1) has drawn a touch awkwardly but he’s racing in great heart and drops a level in class for this. LETHAL THOUGHTS (4) fought on to win at Sandown last start and has drawn perfectly. CRAIG (12) is a talented type resuming and could threaten first-up. EL ROCKO (3) was solid again in Sydney last start and races well at Caulfield.
SUGGESTED BET: The Open to win.
MARKET MOVER: Step Aside $7.50 – $5.50.

RACE 3: 1:10PM EVERGREEN TURF HANDICAP (1800m)
Probably the toughest race of the day. RUDHYAR (11) could be the value runner after returning to winning ways last time out. ZOLTAN (10) has a tricky gate but is racing consistently. GENTIAN BLUE (13) chased well again on this track second-up and should be suited at 1800m. FRETTA (16) has gone well at her two runs this time in and blinkers will help.
SUGGESTED BET: Rudhyar each-way if you must.
MARKET MOVER: Rise To It $4.80 – $3.80.

RACE 4: 1:45PM QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP (2000m)
ARAMCO (12) will be hard fit after three runs back from a spell and he has a strong record over 2000m. YOUNG WERTHER (3) is a quality galloper that can threaten fresh despite the 61kg. ALDER (11) is steadily improving and worked well at Caulfield on Tuesday. ROLLS (8) led throughout at The Valley last Saturday and will give them something to chase.
SUGGESTED BET: Aramco to win.
MARKET MOVER: Aramco $4.40 – $3.90.

RACE 5: 2:20PM GROUP 3 VALE BLACK CAVIAR (1100m)
RECOMMENDATION (2) is flying on the Caulfield track this time in should have every chance to complete a hat trick of wins. KALLOS (1) is a strong first-up performer that has trialled well in Sydney. ARKANSAW KID (4) got the money first-up and could measure up to this harder assignment. CHAIN OF LIGHTNING (3) is also worth thought in an even race first-up.
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 2, 3, 4
MARKET MOVER: Recommendation $2.25 – $2.10

RACE 6: 2:55PM GROUP 3 IVE> MCNEIL STAKES (1200m)
GROWING EMPIRE (1) is an exciting talent that impressed with two easy autumn wins while his recent jumpouts have been most promising. WONDER BOY (6) will be much fitter for his first-up third and worked well at Caulfield on Tuesday. STAY FOCUSED (3) is a talented colt that has the ability to fire fresh. BAND OF BROTHERS (2) is honest and has a fitness advantage over most of these.
SUGGESTED BET: Growing Empire to win.
MARKET MOVER: Stay Focused $3.30 – $2.90

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RACE 7: 3:30PM GROUP 3 TOBIN BROTHERS COCKRAM STAKES (1200m)
CASTE (13) will be much fitter for her sound first-up effort on this track last time out and she has the talent to improve. WROTE TO ARATAKI (2) goes well first-up and should be in this for a long way. EXTRATWO (8) came from a tough position to win at The Valley last Saturday and could handle the class rise. FORTUNATE KISS (9) will be fitter for a sound fresh effort a Flemington.
SUGGESTED BET: Caste each-way.
MARKET MOVER: Extratwo $11 - $8.50

RACE 8: 4:10PM LISTED TILE IMPORTER HEATHERLIE STAKES (1700m)
Another tricky race with half the field resuming from spells. POSITIVITY (14) could produce a surprise first-up after her promising jumpout at Kilmore while she was a Group 3 winner at her last run. Import QUE TEMPESTA (2) has shown enough at the jumpouts to show he’s one to watch first-up. MUNHAMEK (1) is racing well and has a fitness edge. JIMMY THE BEAR (5) can improve stepping up in trip.
SUGGESTED BET: Positivity each-way
MARKET MOVER: Rise At Dawn $4.60 – $3.80.

RACE 9: 4:45PM GROUP 1 STOW STORAGE MEMSIE STAKES (1400m)
Great edition of the Memsie Stakes but PRIDE OF JENNI (7) went from strength-to-strength last season and could go on with it first-up. MR BRIGHTSIDE (1) won this race last year and loves Caulfield. PINSTRIPED (5) went down narrowly in the Lawrence Stakes first-up and will be improved for that. ANTINO (6) has a good first-up record and went well in a Caulfield gallop on Tuesday.
SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 5, 6, 7
MARKET MOVER: Gentleman Roy $11 – $9.

• Pride Of Jenni and Mr Brightside lead the way in Memsie

RACE 10: 5:20PM SPORTSBET SAME RACE MULTI HANDICAP (1400m)
Tough race to finish the day but BERKELEY SQUARE (4) could be over the odds returning from a break while he has a good 1400m record. ANOTHER WIL (2) has drawn awkwardly but has the talent to threaten first-up. HERE TO SHOCK (1) has drawn wide but is flying at the jumpouts. JENNILALA (11) has an impressive first-up record and likes 1400m.
SUGGESTED BET: Berkeley Square each-way.
MARKET MOVER: Another Wil $3.40 – $2.40.

Originally published as Early Oil: Brad Waters’ tips, quaddie selections and race-by-race analysis for Caulfield on Saturday