The Everest, Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Racing editor Ray Thomas and form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the chances of each of the 12 sprinters in Saturday’s $15m The Everest.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances of every runner in the $15m The TAB Everest at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
1. NATURE STRIP
8yo chestnut gelding
Recent form: 31x1x1
Trainer: Chris Waller:
Jockey: James McDonald
Record: 39 starts: 22-7-1
Prizemoney: $19,060008
Major wins: The Everest, three TJ Smith Stakes, two Darley Sprint Classics, King’s Stand Stakes
Ron Dufficy: Nature Strip is the sprint champion of the world with $19 million in the bank. He is clearly ready for battle again and the testing material. I think he is short enough in betting and I’m not really concerned about the barrier given the track conditions. He’s the one to beat.
Ray Thomas: Nature Strip is the world’s No.1 ranked sprinter after a magnificent 12 months that began with his win in The Everest last year. He has since added Group 1 wins in the Darley Sprint Classic, TJ Smith Stakes and King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. The champion sprinter was superb in his return to racing in The Shorts. The deserved favourite and clearly the one to beat.
Slot-holder: Chris Waller Racing
Did you know: Nature Strip is contesting a record fourth The Everest.
2. EDUARDO
9yo chestnut gelding
Recent form: 312x14
Trainer: Joseph Pride
Jockey: Nash Rawiller:
Record: 29 starts: 12-4-6
Prizemoney: $6,808,900
Major wins: The Galaxy, Doomben 10,000
Dufficy: Eduardo is a popular sprinter and is ready to rumble again. He loves it wet. Nash Rawiller has had 14 rides on this horse for nine wins and four placings. Eduardo had a lovely barrier trial win last week and has had a great preparation. He will ride the speed and be in this for a long way.
Thomas: Eduardo has brilliant early speed and will either lead this field or settle right on the speed from the outset. Eduardo was very impressive first-up in the Concorde Stakes then was run down late, finishing fourth to Nature Strip. In 11 clashes with The Everest favourite Nature Strip, Eduardo has beaten his great rival four times. Eduardo looks typically sharp winning a Warwick Farm barrier trial last week and will be very competitive again.
Slot-holder: Yulong
Did you know: Eduardo is the oldest horse to contest The Everest.
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3. LOST AND RUNNING (SCRATCHED)
6yo bay gelding
Recent form: x10x31
Trainer: John O’Shea
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Record; 16 starts 9-2-1
Prizemoney: $2,981,100
Major wins: Premiere Stakes, Southern Cross Stakes
Dufficy: Lost And Running sets up beautifully for this race third-up from a spell and off a win. The barrier draw is perfect and he has an ideal racing style to sit off the pack stalking the leaders. He’s a very talented sprinter and should be in the finish with any lucky whatsoever.
Thomas: Lost And Running ran fourth in The Everest last year, beaten two lengths – and he is an infinitely superior sprinter this spring. His form leading into The Everest this spring is so much better, finishing a luckless third to Nature Strip in The Shorts before an outstanding win in the Premiere Stakes. John O’Shea’s stable star will get the right run and should be in the finish.
Slot-holder: TAB
Did you know: Lost And Running’s number three saddlecloth has won two Everests.
4. MASKED CRUSADER
6yo bay gelding
Recent form: 579x63
Trainer: Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes
Jockey: William Pike
Record: 22 starts 7-4-2
Prizemoney: $4,011,275
Major wins: William Reid Stakes, Premiere Stakes
Dufficy: The timing looks spot on for Masked Crusader. He hasn’t been ready until today and is sure to be motoring home late. If we get a drying track by the time The Everest is run and is back into the soft 7 range he has a great winning chance.
Thomas: Masked Crusader was unlucky not to have won The Everest last year, coming from last on the turn to beaten narrowly by Nature Strip. He can be slow out of the barriers which makes it very difficult to give world class sprinters a start. But Masked Crusader has returned in great form this spring and last start his luckless third to Lost And Running in the Premiere Stakes was arguably the run of the race.
Slot-holder: Max Whitby, Neil Werrett and Col Madden
Did you know: The slot holders have had two seconds and two fourth placings in The Everest.
5. MAZU
4yo bay gelding
Recent form: 111x52
Trainer: Peter and Paul Snowden
Jockey: Sam Clipperton
Record: 13 starts 7-1-1
Prizemoney: $1,996,850
Major wins: Doomben 10,000, Arrowfield 3YO Sprint Stakes
Dufficy: The wetter the better for Mazu. He’s getting out to massive odds here and he has been close to the big guns in both runs this preparation. Mazu has most boxes ticked and the stable knows what is needed to win this race. He lives in Redzel’s old box so hopefully that rubs off on him.
Thomas: Mazu closed out his three-year-old season with six successive wins including the Group 2 Arrowfield Stud Stakes and Group 1 Doomben 10,000. Despite defeats in both runs this spring, he’s certainly not out of his depth at this level as evidenced by his narrow loss to Lost And Running in the Premiere Stakes. Mazu is bombproof because he handles wet or dry tracks, races on speed and makes his own luck in races.
Slot-holder: Arrowfield and The Star
Did you know: Mazu means first place in Japanese.
6. PRIVATE EYE
5yo brown gelding
Recent form: 5082x1
Trainer: Joseph Pride
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Record: 21 starts: 9-2-1
Prizemoney: $2,128.060
Major wins: Epsom Handicap, Queensland Guineas, Gilgai Stakes
Dufficy: Private Eye is a well-credentialed good horse at the top level. I thought he was brilliant first-up under a big weight at Flemington and he loves Randwick. The tempo will suit him, he can settle off them and all he has to do is stay in touch. He could easily poke through late and get the money.
Thomas: Private Eye, winner of the Group 1 Epsom Handicap last year, burst into The Everest contention with a dominant first-up win in the Gilgai Stakes at Flemington. There is growing support for Private Eye because The Everest field is loaded with speed, the tempo will be frenetic, and few will be finishing faster than this tough gelding.
Slot-holder: Inglis
Did you know: Private Eye is a track and distance specialist.
7. OVERPASS
4yo bay horse
Recent form: 557x26
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Jockey: Rachel King
Record: 17 starts: 5-3-0
Prizemoney: $1,074,400
Major wins: Expressway Stakes
Dufficy: Overpass’ best chance is a drying track. He was very good when second to Nature Strip in The Shorts first-up then the heavy surface was against him in the Premiere Stakes. If Overpass gets a suitable, drying track then he will be within a length or two of them.
Thomas: Overpass managed something that has become increasingly difficult for the nation’s very best racehorses this year – he defeated Godolphin superstar Anamoe in the Expressway Stakes over 1200m at weight-for-age earlier this year. Overpass’ star is on the rise, he split Nature Strip and Lost And Running with his second in The Shorts then the heavy track was against him last start. Underrated but gifted sprinter.
Slot-holder: James Kennedy
Did you know: Rachel King is the only female jockey to ride in The Everest.
8. INGRATIATING
4yo brown horse
Recent form: 873x12
Trainer: James Cummings
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Record: 18 starts 4-5-3
Prizemoney: $1,308,500
Major wins: Vain Stakes, Maribyrnong Trial Stakes
Dufficy: Ingratiating is the last horse into the race after a good run in the Schillaci Stakes last week. The back-up could be gold here, this could be a masterstroke if we get a testing track. It’s also worth keeping in mind the Godolphin longshots always run well in this race.
Thomas: Ingratiating secured the final The Everest slot with his close second to stablemate Paulele in the Schillaci Stakes at Caulfield last Saturday. Godolphin used the Caulfield race to prepare Trekking for his third placing in The Everest three years ago. Ingratiating has been something of a forgotten sprinter but his two runs this spring shows he is back to the form that saw him placed in the Golden Slipper and Blue Diamond last year.
Slot-holder: Godolphin
Did you know: Godolphin is due for an Everest win after three minor placings in five years.
9. JOYFUL FORTUNE
6yo chestnut gelding
Recent form: 4x17x1
Trainer: Mark Newnham
Jockey: Tom Sherry
Record: 8 starts 3-1-0
Prizemoney: $365,612
Major wins: None
Dufficy: Joyful Fortune has burst into this field after only one Australian run, winning a Benchmark 70 down the straight at Flemington. Look, he’s hard to assess but he’s trialled like a good horse although this is obviously a huge step up in grade to The Everest.
Thomas: Joyful Fortune is the mystery runner in The Everest field. The former Hong Kong sprinter once ran a blistering 55.07sec to win over 1000m. At his only Australian start, Joyful Fortune bolted in over 1000m at Flemington, winning by a big margin on a Heavy 10 track. He’s won all three barrier trials since joining the Newnham stable, displaying brilliant speed and beating Everest rivals Eduardo and Shades Of Rose in the process.
Slot-holder: Aquis
Did you know: Joyful Fortune has never contested a stakes race.
10. SHADES OF ROSE
4yo bay mare
Recent form; P21111
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Record: 9 starts 7-1-0
Prizemoney: $445,560
Major wins: Sheraco Stakes
Dufficy: Shades Of Rose had a freshen up since being outstanding over the winter then early-spring months. You could make a case she should be nine out of nine going into this race and she definitely earned her slot.
Thomas: Shades Of Rose has been a late bloomer, reeling off four successive wins through late winter and early spring culminating with her Group 2 Sheraco Stakes success last month. She’s a brilliant mare capable of running very fast times on fast tracks but is also effective on soft-heavy tracks. She is very determined and an Everest slot the reward for her consistency.
Slot-holder: Bon Ho
Did you know: No mare has won or even been placed in The Everest.
11. JACQUINOT
3yo bay colt
Recent form: 536x11
Trainer: Mick Price and Michael Kent (Jnr)
Jockey: Damien Lane
Record: 6 starts 3-0-1
Prizemoney: $1,058,050
Major wins: Golden Rose Stakes, HDF McNeil Stakes
Dufficy: Jacquinot does bring the X-factor here. He’s a serious horse as he showed with his amazing win in the high-rating Golden Rose. Whether he can freshen and drop back in distance to 1200m I’m not sure and the stable wants a drier track. He can’t be underestimated and is third favourite.
Thomas: Jacquinot is one of the most exciting three-year-olds in training as evidenced by his stunning Golden Rose win. The fact this crack colt has had a lead-up over 1400m stands him in good stead for The Everest. Jacquinot is into third favouritism for The Everest – he is that good.
Slot-holder: Coolmore
Did you know: Yes Yes Yes (2019) is the only three-year-old winner of The Everest.
12. GIGA KICK
3yo chestnut gelding
Recent form: 1111
Trainer: Clayton Douglas
Jockey: Craig Williams
Record: 4 starts 4-0-0
Prizemoney: $393,200
Major wins: Danehill Stakes, Vain Stakes
Dufficy: Giga Kick is held in high regard by his connections. I know he hasn’t won beyond 1100m but he hasn’t tried it. One thing I did like about him was his track gallop at Randwick on Tuesday, he was very impressive in the vision I saw and seemed to get through the going really well.
Thomas: Giga Kick is the first unbeaten sprinter to contest The Everest. His perfect record from four starts includes wins in the Group 3 Vain Stakes and Group 2 Danehill Stakes. Champion jockey Craig Williams is the biggest believer in Giga Kick and endorsed the three-year-old colt’s Everest claims.
Slot-holder: James Harron
Did you know: Giga Kick is the only unbeaten sprinter to contest The Everest.
15. KEMENTARI
8yo brown gelding
Recent form: 03x54
Trainer: James Cummings
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Record: 44 starts 8-6-7
Prizemoney:$2,706,650
Major wins: Randwick Guineas
Thomas: Kementari gets a late call-up into The Everest due to the race-morning scratching of Lost And Running. Godolphin’s popular warhorse, widely known as “Special K”, goes into the race after a half-length fourth behind Lost And Running, Mazu and Masked Crusader in the Premiere Stakes. That’s excellent Everest form -- he loves Randwick and will run a competitive race.
SUMMARY
Dufficy: I’m with the tried and proven here with Lost And Running (scratched) to beat Nature Strip, Masked Crusader and Mazu. I just have a slight leaning to Lost And Running due to the price factor as I feel he should be closer to Nature Strip in the market. This sets up to be a great running of The Everest.
Thomas: Nature Strip is the world’s best sprinter and has an uncanny ability to produce his best when it matters most. He can go back-to-back in The Everest with Mazu, Eduardo and Masked Crusader great chances. I’m wary of Jacquinot.
The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the rest of the Royal Randwick meeting as well as the Caulfield Cup on Super Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
Duff’s Best
Race 8, No.1: MR MOZART
Best Value
Race 1, No.6: LONRIOLI
Ray’s Best
Race 8, No.1: MR MOZART
Next Best
Race 10, No.8: FINEPOINT
Value Bet
Race 5, No.12: COMMANDO HUNT
ROYAL RANDWICK
RACE 1: REGINALD ALLEN QUALITY (1400m)
Ron Dufficy: This is a hard race but I’m taken with Lonrioli. She’s a big, strong filly learning all the time. I can’t see much speed in this race so she can stride across and take control at good odds. A Lot More Love could be here danger. She has blinkers on and trialled well since her last start win. Orzala is a filly with a big wrap on her. She won well at Newcastle last start. Razeta is huge odds and is the forgotten horse as last preparation she ran third to Kibou and Osipenko and that form wins this race.
Ray Thomas: Orzala is a superbly bred filly by super sire Snitzel out of Norzita and she impressed winning her maiden at Newcastle. This is a big jump in grade but James McDonald has taken the mount and she is very promising. Thinking Rain is also a promising filly who is confronted by a sharp rise in grade but she will be running on. Parisal is drawn to get the right run and A Lot More Love is very fit and in top form.
RACE 2: BIG DANCE WILD CARD (1600m)
Dufficy: Good race, I’m with Steely. He was very good in an unsuitable race first-up and is suited here. Kirwan’s Lane is the horse to beat. He has his fair share of weight but he has great second-up form and is OK in the Randwick soft. Wicklow is back to a softer track over the Randwick mile, gets in light and will be charging home at the finish. Wild Chap is absolutely flying and puts himself in the box seat again.
Thomas: Wicklow is coming back in trip and has an awkward draw but he’s right down in the weights and will be hitting the line hard. Kirwan’s Lane is a Randwick mile specialist with a terrific second-up record. Tampering drops 9kg on his second in the Bathurst Cup, he’s genuine and will run a race at odds. Steely does look well placed and the stable is in great form.
RACE 3: CRAVEN PLATE (1800m)
Dufficy: Hard to go past Cascadian. He made easy work of it winning the Hill Stakes, this is no harder and back to the 1800m is no problem at all for him. I’m not giving up on Promitto with the 50kg here. He might just tag the lead and run a decent race; all he has to do is run the distance. Surf Dancer won the Shannon Stakes well first-up but he doesn’t want it too wet although he does get complete control. The dark horse here is the Kiwi Pinarello as this looks the one target for him.
Thomas: Cascadian was considered suspect at 2000m but he was far too good for Numerian and Montefilia in the Hill Stakes. He’s coming back slightly in trip to 1800m which suits and this is an easier race. He should win again. Surf Dancer will be riding the speed and is going to give Cascadian something to chase. Promitto is capable on soft-heavy tracks and can race well. Hezashocka gets the rain-affected track he needs and can be competitive.
RACE 4: ST LEGER STAKES (2600m)
Dufficy: I like Stockman. He was beaten less than a length in The Metropolitan and that has to be good form for this race. He gets the race run to suit. If it gets a little drier on the day Sacramento is absolutely flying and he did a great job in The Metropolitan. Cadre Du Noir has lifted in better class his last two starts and is a stayer on the rise. Chalk Stream has had 42 days and a trial his last two runs and I can see him running well here.
Thomas: Stockman is a tough stayer and ran well in The Metropolitan, finishing a close fourth. The set weights conditions of the St Leger suit. Chalk Stream, raced by His Majesty King Charles III, is a genuine stayer and is there to run well. Cadre Du Noir is in very good form and Carif is capable of running competitively at each way odds.
RACE 5: THE KOSCIUSZKO (1200m)
Dufficy: The horse that sets up the best is Far Too Easy. He has had his two runs back, he has form around the favourite It’s Me, he’s had a recent Eagle Farm barrier trial, he has the best draw and is screaming out for 1200m now. I think Front Page is hard to read with no official trial but if he brings his form from his first-up run in May from the Wagga Town Plate he will win this race. He hasn’t been past a soft 6 which is the query. Art Cadeau is a terrific horse and his Randwick form on the soft is very, very good.
Thomas: This is a terrific race. I’ve gone wide here with Commando Hunt. He will enjoy the genuine tempo and soft track conditions, and will be finishing hard. He’s over the odds at $31 but that is a reflection of the depth of this Kosciuszko field. Far Too Easy is drawn to get the right run and will be hard to beat. The undefeated Talbragar has loads of talent, then there is the classy Art Cadeau, Handle The Truth, Front Page etc. Super race.
RACE 6: SYDNEY STAKES (1200m)
Dufficy: This is another super race, Ray. I’m with Kementari. He competed against the big guns in the Premiere Stakes last start and wasn’t beaten far at all. The soft track suits him, plenty of speed up front and with Nash Rawiller back on board he will be hard to beat. I want to stick with the Premiere Stakes form with Apache Chase the danger. He just needs to stay fresh enough for the 1200m but he did win a Group 1 second-up at 1300m last campaign. Forbidden Love has been kept nice and fresh with this race in mind, he just needs luck from the draw. Likewise from In The Congo who has been freshened up and is a tried and proven sprinter.
Thomas: Remarque has been so impressive in his two runs back and the improving track conditions will be to his advantage. The Team Hawkes-trained sprinter has always shown ability but it seems he is finally ready to realise his potential. In The Congo will race on the speed and give a great sight. Apache Chase and Kementari will have their admirers, too.
RACE 8: SILVER EAGLE (1300m)
Dufficy: My mind has completely changed from last week with the barrier draw and speed map. I think it’s all about Mr Mozart now. He drew right off the track last week but today finds himself coming out of barrier one with only one leader in Lavish Girl. I can see Mr Mozart finding her back then from the turn he will be off and gone. I’m giving Espiona another chance on the soft track at Randwick and the gear chance. Vilana might be Godolphin’s main Golden Eagle chance but could be one run short. Waterford will be charging home but it will be a mighty feat if he can win at 1300m with a question mark on the tempo.
Thomas: I think you have summed this race up perfectly, Ronnie. Mr Mozart showed his quality on rain-affected tracks to reel off three wins in succession last autumn and he resumed with an outstanding second in the Theo Marks Stakes. Fitter now, should enjoy the run of the race and gets track conditions to suit. Vilana sprints well fresh, Waterford and Loch Eagle are impressive last start winners and Espiona is not out of it, either.
RACE 9: FIVE DIAMONDS PRELUDE (1500m)
Dufficy: Ellsberg is an Epsom winner last start and he just maps so well for this race. He takes control or sits right on the leaders and even with 59.5kg it’s hard to deny his Epsom form. I think there is a good roughie here with Sibaaq. He has come up really well and although he might be more of a Big Dance horse he maps nicely and should be very competitive. Atishu is going a lot better this campaign and third-up the timing is right. I will throw in Ayrton who would have been top pick on a drier track.
Thomas: Ellsberg dead-heated with Top Ranked in the Group 1 Epsom last start and if he only needs to run up to that effort to prove the one to beat again. Ayrton is the danger. If the track continues to improve, his chances soar. Alcyone is very fit and gets the right run from his good barrier. Diamil always runs well second-up and is a value runner.
RACE 10: ANGST STAKES (1600m)
Dufficy: Finepoint has drawn well and I am gambling the inside barrier will work for her. She won nicely first-up and can continue her good form here. Hope In Your Heart is an underrated mare who is flying this preparation and is crying out for the mile. She just needs luck slotting in early. Honeycreeper is better for one run back from a spell and will rail up well. Meg had too much to do getting so far back last start and is a good longshot.
Thomas: I was keen on Finepoint last week and have to stick with her. She was impressive first-up, is advantaged by the barrier draw, and her only previous wet track run resulted in a very easy win. Hope In Your Heart is chasing a hat-trick of wins and rates highly. Grace And Harmony and Polly Grey are stablemates of Finepoint and give trainer Chris Waller a strong hand in the closer.
CAULFIELD
RACE 9: CAULFIELD CUP (2400m)
Dufficy: I have no idea; this is not a strong Caulfield Cup. Montefilia has been set up to run well in this race all year and to think she is $21 in a race like this, she can run a very good race. Benaud is the danger. He ticked away nicely in his lead-up and he will be rushing home late. Sticking with the Sydney horses I would have tipped Alegron if he had a recent run under his belt but he is the in-form horse. No Compromise is so consistent, he just doesn’t run a bad race.
Thomas: Alegron is a classy stayer who won the St Leger at Flemington earlier this year. Back to his best when he fought off Benaud to win the Kingston Town Stakes last start. Handles soft-heavy tracks and in a very open Caulfield Cup, he will give a great sight. Benaud came off his close second to Alegron to run well when sixth in Anamoe’s Might And Power Stakes. He’s had the right preparation and will go close with any luck in running. Numerian races on speed and will be in this for a long way and Montefilia’s sheer class puts her into this race.
Originally published as The Everest, Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
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