The Everest 2022: Runner-by-runner analysis for the $15m sprint showdown
Nature Strip, the world’s best sprinter, will start the shortest-priced favourite in Everest history as he shoots for back-to-back wins. Can anyone beat him?
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas looks at the chances of every runner in Saturday’s $15m The TAB Everest at Royal Randwick.
RACE DETAILS
$15m THE TAB EVEREST
1200m, Randwick
1. NATURE STRIP (12) – $1.90
Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: James McDonald 58.5kg
Ray says: Nature Strip is the world’s No.1 ranked sprinter after a magnificent 12 months that began with his win in The Everest last year. He has since added Group 1 wins in the Darley Sprint Classic, TJ Smith Stakes and his memorable triumph in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. The champion sprinter was superb in his return to racing in The Shorts, settling well behind the leaders early then exploding clear to win brilliantly. The deserved favourite and clearly the one to beat.
Slot holder: Chris Waller Racing
2. EDUARDO (9) – $13
Trainer: Joe Pride. Jockey: Nash Rawiller 58.5kg
Ray says: Eduardo is the oldest horse in the field but age hasn’t dulled the nine-year-old’s speed. He remains one of the fastest sprinters in training and will either lead this field or settle right on the speed from the outset. Eduardo was very impressive first-up in the Concorde Stakes then led for home in The Shorts but was run down late, finishing fourth to Nature Strip. In 11 clashes with The Everest favourite Nature Strip, Eduardo has beaten his great rival four times. Eduardo looks typically sharp winning a Warwick Farm barrier trial last week and will be very competitive again.
Slot holder: Yulong
3. LOST AND RUNNING (7) – $7
Trainer: John O”Shea. Jockey: Hugh Bowman 58.5kg
Ray says: Lost And Running ran fourth in The Everest last year, beaten two lengths – and he is an infinitely superior sprinter this spring. His form leading into The Everest this spring is so much better, finishing a luckless third to Nature Strip in The Shorts before an outstanding win in the Premiere Stakes. John O’Shea’s stable star is now a six-year-old gelding and a more complete racehorse. Jockey Hugh Bowman has the belief Lost And Running can win this race. If Lost And Running can draw a barrier and get the right run, he will be in the finish.
Slot holder: TAB
4. MASKED CRUSADER (10) – $11
Trainer: Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes. Jockey: William Pike 58.5kg
Ray says: Masked Crusader was unlucky not to have won The Everest last year, coming from last on the turn and winding his way through the pack to be beaten narrowly by Nature Strip. It was a monstrous run from a sprinter with loads of talent. His racing pattern is often his Achilles Heel as he can be slow out of the barriers which makes it very difficult to give world class sprinters a start. Masked Crusader has returned in great form this spring and last start his luckless, fast-finishing third to Lost And Running the Premiere Stakes was arguably the run of the race. A lot needs to go right for Masked Crusader to win but he has the ability.
Slot holder: Max Whitby, Neil Werrett and Col Madden
5. MAZU (11) – $13
Trainer: Peter and Paul Snowden. Jockey: Sam Clipperton 58.5kg
Ray says: Mazu is the one of the emerging young guns in the nation’s sprinting ranks who are challenging the old guard. He has developed into a genuinely top-class sprinter, closing out his three-year-old season with six successive wins including the Group 2 Arrowfield Stud Stakes and Group 1 Doomben 10,000. Despite successive defeats this spring, he’s certainly not out of his depth at this level as evidenced by a luckless fifth in The Shorts behind Nature Strip then a narrow loss to Lost And Running in the Premiere Stakes. Mazu is bombproof because he handles wet or dry tracks, races on speed making his own luck in races. If he draws an inside barrier, his winning chances soar.
Slot holder: Arrowfield and The Star
6. PRIVATE EYE (3) – $17
Trainer: Joe Pride. Jockey: Brenton Avdulla 58.5kg
Ray says: Private Eye, winner of the Group 1 Epsom Handicap last year, burst into The Everest contention with a dominant first-up win in the Gilgai Stakes at Flemington. Private Eye’s brilliance last start surprised many but certainly not trainer Joe Pride. He has felt the gelding was worthy of an Everest start since finishing second in the Stradbroke Handicap earlier this year. There is growing support for Private Eye because The Everest field is loaded with speed, the tempo will be frenetic, and few will be finishing faster than this tough gelding. Slot holder Inglis lost Snapdancer with injury last week but have been ably compensated picking up Private Eye for The Everest.
Slot holder: Inglis
7. OVERPASS (6) – $34
Trainer: Bjorn Baker. Jockey: Rachel King 58.5kg
Ray says: Overpass managed something that has become increasingly difficult for the nation’s very best racehorses this year – he defeated Godolphin superstar Anamoe in the Expressway Stakes over 1200m at weight-for-age earlier this year. Anamoe has reached racing’s elite level but for promising sprinter Overpass, his star is on the rise and fast. He split Nature Strip and Lost And Running with his second in The Shorts when resuming earlier this spring then the heavy track was against him second-up when sixth in the Premiere Stakes, won by Lost And Running. Under-rated but gifted sprinter, Overpass is more than capable of missing it with the nation’s best sprinters provided he gets a track rated in the soft range.
Slot holder: James Kennedy
8. INGRATIATING (4) – $51
Trainer: James Cummings. Jockey: Glyn Schofield 58.5kg
Ray says: Ingratiating secured the final Everest slot with he charged home from back in the field to finish a close second to stablemate Paulele in the Schillaci Stakes at Caulfield last Saturday. Godolphin used the Caulfield race to prepare Trekking for his third placing in The Everest three years ago. Has been something of a forgotten sprinter but his two runs this spring show he is back to the form that saw him placed in the Golden Slipper and Blue Diamond last year.
Slot holder: Godolphin
9. JOYFUL FORTUNE (1) – $71
Trainer: Mark Newnham. Jockey: Tom Sherry
Ray says: Joyful Fortune is the mystery runner in The Everest field. Little is known of the six-year-old gelding by Nicconi, sire of Nature Strip, who began his race career in Hong Kong winning two of his seven starts. In one of his wins, Joyful Fortune ran 55.07s for 1000m, the third fastest time ever run for the distance in that country. In his only Australian start, Joyful Fortune bolted in over 1000m at Flemington, winning by a big margin on a heavy 10 track. He’s won all three barrier trials since joining the Newnham stable, displaying brilliant speed and beating Everest rivals Eduardo and Shades Of Rose in the process.
Slot holder: Aquis
10. SHADES OF ROSE (8) – $71
Trainer: Bjorn Baker. Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy 56.5kg
Ray says: Shades Of Rose has been a late bloomer, reeling off four successive wins through late winter and early spring culminating with her Group 2 Sheraco Stakes success last month. She’s a brilliant mare capable of running very fast times on fast tracks but is also effective on soft-heavy tracks. Trainer Bjorn Baker intended to spell Shades Of Rose after her Sheraco win but she did so well in the days post-race, he decided to extend her spring campaign. With seven wins from nine career starts, Shades Of Rose is showing considerable sprinting ability with an Everest slot the reward for her consistency.
Slot holder: Bon Ho
11. JACQUINOT (2) – $9
Trainer: Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr. Jockey: Damien Lane 53kg
Ray says: Jacquinot is one of the most exciting three-year-olds in training. He swamped the highly rated Aft Cabin first-up in the McNeil Stakes then produced another stunning finishing burst to run down top filly In Secret for an outstanding win in the Group 1 Golden Rose. Within 24 hours of that win, Jacquinot was in The Everest, snapped up by Coolmore. In 2019, Yes Yes Yes became the first and still only three-year-old to win The Everest after he came through the Golden Rose where he finished second. The fact that Jacquinot has had a lead-up over 1400m stands him in good stead for The Everest. Jacquinot is into third favouritism for The Everest – he is that good.
Slot holder: Coolmore
12. GIGA KICK (5) – $26
Trainer: Clayton Douglas. Jockey: Craig Williams 53kg
Ray says: Giga Kick is the first unbeaten sprinter to contest The Everest. His perfect record from four starts includes wins in the Group 3 Vain Stakes and Group 2 Danehill Stakes. His winning margin last start was only narrow but champion jockey Craig Williams is the biggest believer in Giga Kick and endorsed the three-year-old colt’s Everest claims. Slot holder James Harron correctly selected The Everest winner Redzel in the race’s inaugural of 2017 and was keen to negotiate the deal for Giga Kick.
Slot holder: James Harron
Emergencies
13. FORBIDDEN LOVE – Michael Freedman 56.5kg
14. APACHE CHACE – Desleigh Forster 58.5kg
15. KEMENTARI – James Cummings 58.5kg
16. IN THE CONGO – Gai aterhouse and Adrian Bott 58.5kg
Originally published as The Everest 2022: Runner-by-runner analysis for the $15m sprint showdown
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