Shayne O’Cass’s extended preview and tips for Hawkesbury

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass examines every race for the Hawkesbury stand-alone meeting on Saturday to point you in the right direction to finding a winner.

The Chris Waller-trained Wicklow can end the day on a high note at Hawkesbury. Picture: Grant Guy

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass runs the rule over every race, including suggested bets, at Hawkesbury on Saturday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here.

HAWKESBURY

Track: Soft 5. Rail: True.

RACE 1

Overview: You don’t see too many Godolphin horses win at $21 but the market got it right the next time when successfully plunging on the epic blue blood Zardozi when she won oh so easily here over 1300m. She’s bred to win a Guineas or an Oaks so 1400m will be no trouble. Icebreaker was just over two lengths behind Zardozi here on April 5. Not sold on him turning the tables but given it was his debut, there’s perhaps some natural improvement. Californian has two and a half lengths to make-up on Zardozi. Not impossible.

The Bet: Zardozi to win

RACE 2

Overview: Titration’s two Highway appearances have contained merit to varying degrees. Beaten first-up but deserves some credit at least. James McDonald is a whopping great positive but the horse’s own second-up record is a whopping great worry. Penthouse might be best saved for the Kensington meeting on Anzac Day I think. Star To Fall was awesome on debut. Not so the next time but it happens. Dollar Magic is a huge player.

The Bet: Titration each-way

Titration (Green and Gold) finishing a close second to Super Extreme in a TAB Highway. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 3

Overview: Shadows Of Love’s hat-trick was narrowly, and I mean narrowly, averted owing to Olentia’s win here on April 5. Fair to say that the Chris Waller-trained Star Thoroughbreds mare franked the form given her James HB Carr win straight after. Sweet Mercy has raced 12 times, four of those have been at Hawkesbury including her debut this time last year where she finished third to In Secret no less. Fast forward to more recent times the daughter of Capitalist was a bit of a no show when beating one home. Was a good field on a bad track that day.

The Bet: Sweet Mercy each-way

RACE 4

Overview: Irish-bred gelding Unspoken gets two thumbs up for his Australian debut second on a leader’s track in a leader’s race. Frankel mare Hometruths was $41/$31/$41 when she made her Australian debut in the Epona Stakes on Golden Slipper Day. She was 12th of 14 with 800m to go and was improving all the while up the inside until the door shut at the top of the straight. Had an easy trial since. Worth a real good look at the odds. Demarcay is up to 1800m quickly but it can’t have come quick enough really.

The Bet: Hometruths each-way. Quinella 4, 13

RACE 5

Overview: There was a time when you would put money on Able Willie turning into a really good horse but for one reason or another, he is yet to fulfil his potential. To be fair to the horse, he has run some fantastic races; fourth to Overpass in the Inglis Sprint being Exhibit A. Fire is back to a Bm78 having run in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes last start. Red Card has been trialling the house down, so has Nasturtium to a slightly lesser extent. As an ABBA fan and a fan of the filly herself, I ask how is Winnertakesitall such big odds here?

The Bet: Able Willie to win

RACE 6

Overview: The aptly-named Hawkesbury Rush has been run five times and in three of those, the winning time for the 1100m was 1.02 and change. They always run fast and with Malkovich in, expect more of the same. Who would that suit best? Can think of two; Andermatt and Fox Fighter. Pity the track was too wet for Juan Diva last week; she could have won the Hall Mark but will instead have to take on some pretty handy sprinters in the Gold Rush on the weekend. If the track got to a Good 4 and she’s not posted, she has trialled well enough to say she is in incredible shape.

The Bet: Juan Diva to win, Fox Fighter to place

RACE 7

Overview: James McDonald’s winning-strike rate for Ciaron Maher and David Eustace is 35.5 per cent. The titanic trio combine with Guineas favourite The Fortune Teller whose first start was a Swan Hill win, his ninth and last, he won the Carbine Club at Randwick. Good horse drawn bad. There’s always been a big race in Hawaii Five Oh; this might be it. Kote is probably a second-tier three-year-old but he is very solid around that mark illustrated by his seconds in the Fireball and Darby Munro. He’s always looked a 1400m type.

The Bet: Kote to win

Kote looks a good chance in the Hawkesbury Guineas. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 8

Overview: Maybe ‘enormous’ is taking it a bit too far but find your own suitably praiseworthy adjective to describe Princess Grace’s Sapphire Stakes performance. The phrase that came to mind after she crossed the line was ‘next time’. Never Talk sets herself some herculean tasks in her races but when the tempo is on and the timing is right, nothing can stave off that whirlwind finish, Beware Dalchini! Remember this day last year?!

The Bet: Princess Grace (best bet)

RACE 9

Overview: Floating Artist wasn’t a bad horse in England but has gone to a whole new level (times about ten) in Australia. He did run fourth in the Melbourne Cup remember. As for the Hawkesbury Cup, he is still fresh enough for the mile and has had a run so we’re saying fit enough too. New Mandate has had three runs in Australia; Five Diamonds, Ingham and Doncaster Prelude and has gone better than the ‘799’ would suggest. Character has a lot of that, character that is.

The Bet: New Mandate to win

RACE 10

Overview: Questions will be asked, and answered, this preparation vis-a-vie Estadio Mestalla who looked like a Doncaster Mile horse at his Australian debut. He’s had that one prep now so normally it goes that they are better the next time around. London to a brick on that Pervade turns into a profitable mile/2000m horse down here. Hasn’t this race just got ‘ambush’ written all over it? It’ll be one of Waller’s no doubt, just hoping it’s Wicklow. He does it all the time. Well, sometimes.

The Bet: Wicklow to win, Pervade each-way, quinella/exacta 5, 10.