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Runner-by runner analysis and tips: Winterbottom Stakes

Here is our assessment of the runners and tips for Saturday’s $1.5 million Winterbottom Stakes (1200m) at Ascot in Perth.

Racenet
4 min read
November 30, 2023 - 2:11PM
Overpass is the horse to beat in the Winterbottom Stakes on Saturday.
Overpass is the horse to beat in the Winterbottom Stakes on Saturday.

The $1.5 million Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes (1200m) has drawn together a competitive line-up at Ascot in Perth on Saturday and here is our assessment of the form of each of the runners.

Here is a runner-by-runner analysis of every horse set to line up on Saturday.

1 – OVERPASS

One of Australia’s premier sprinters making a second trip to Perth. Ventured across the Nullarbor back in April and claimed the inaugural Quokka. He does his best racing when fresh as is his set up for this. A proven Group 1 weight-for-age performer over this distance.

VERDICT: He’s the yardstick in the race.

2 – RED CAN MAN

Experienced local lining up in his fourth Winterbottom. Yet to place in his previous three but he did get within 1-3/4 lengths of Overpass in The Quokka earlier this year. This prep he won the Crawford Stakes but he led and was swamped in his last outing in the Colonel Reeves Stakes (1100m).

VERDICT: History shows he’s not up to winning a Winterbottom.

3 – SAVATOXL

The 2021 Goodwood winner that arrives here on the fresh side. Last prep he campaigned in Darwin and Morphettville where he was competitive in 1200 and 1400m races before venturing to Melbourne when outclassed in the Group 2 Feehan over a mile.

VERDICT: His best days are behind him.

4 – HOT ZED

Six-year-old with an impressive winning strike rate. He finished fourth in this race last year at big odds when coming from worse than midfield to be beaten 1-1/2 lengths. Was beaten just over a length into fifth in The Quokka back in April and struck winning form last start in the Colonel Reeves Stakes (1100m).

VERDICT: One of the better local chances.

5 – RESORTMAN

Managed a midfield finish in The Quokka back in April. Resumes here off two trials, he’s a five-time winner over 1200m from 11 starts and he’s a two time first-up winner in six campaigns. His only previous Group 1 start returned a fourth in last year’s Railway Stakes over a mile.

VERDICT: Place prospects preferred.

6 – LAVERROD

Spent 12 months on the sidelines after finishing down the track in the Colonel Reeves Stakes (1100m) last year and he returned to action in the Group 3 Prince Of Wales Stakes (1000m) before again running in the Colonel Reeves Stakes (1100m). Finished outside the placings in both runs this prep.

VERDICT: Needs to jump out of the ground to figure.

7 – SNOWDOME

Four-year-old that’s building an impressive record as he works his way up the open age ranks. Stepped into Group company for the first time this year and got the job done in the Group 3 Prince Of Wales Stakes (1000m) at his latest outing.

VERDICT: The 1200m might be a tad too far at this level.

8 – TRIPLE MISSILE

Local that’s been campaigning in Victoria since May last year. His best efforts in Melbourne have been second placings in this year’s Group 2 Gilgai Stakes and last year’s Group 3 Rising Fast Stakes, both over 1200m. Gets the services of Damien Oliver and drawn the pole.

VERDICT: One of the leading contenders.

9 – PHANTA

Consistent gelding that’s well into his prep but runs have been spaced and he arrives here six weeks between runs. Scored two wins at Listed level at the start of the prep at Belmont and found the 1400m beyond him last time in the Eurythmic Stakes. Barrier 17 doesn’t help.

VERDICT: Barrier makes the task all but impossible.

10 – CLEMENCEAU

Former Sydney galloper that had some solid form references during the autumn including a fourth behind Everest winner Think About it and a second in the Group 3 Star Kingdom Stakes where he beat home Coal Crusher. Likely to have improved off his Perth debut when eighth, beaten 2-3/4 lengths in the Colonel Reeves Stakes (1100m).

VERDICT: Capable of sharp improvement.

11 – MAN CRUSH

The majority of his recent form is only average but two runs back he did just get nabbed in the Group 3 Prince Of Wales Stakes (1000m). Only a two-time 1200m winner from nine tries.

VERDICT: Not going well enough.

12 – GO FORWARD

Yet to win this preparation but he’s been hitting the line and should appreciate stepping up from 1100 to 1200m. Yet to win over 1200m but recent efforts suggest he’ll relish the extra trip. Drawn to get a smooth run.

VERDICT: Class query but recent efforts have been solid.

13 – MY BELLA MAE

Finished down the track in this race as a three-year-old filly last year. Since then she won twice as a three-year-old and has failed in her other six runs. Her best effort this prep was a second placing first-up in the Listed Crawford Stakes (1000m) behind Red Can Man.

VERDICT: Drawn to get every chance but needs to lift.

14 – FLYING MISSILE

Resumed from a spell in the Listed Jungle Mist where she finished midfield. A two-time winner over 1200m from 10 starts, her only win this year came in the Jockey Celebration Stakes over 1400m in August. Drawn to get every chance.

VERDICT: Place chances are best.

15 – RIPCORD

Three-year-old gelding that came from a mile back to win the Listed Placid Ark Stakes (1200m) last start. Placed in the Group 2 Karrakatta Plate (1200m) as a two-year-old, he will relish a strongly run race. Drawn to get a good run.

VERDICT: No three-year-old has won this since 2002 and doubt changes with Ripcord.

16 – OSCAR’S FORTUNE

Undefeated in his first four starts, all over 1000m then stepped up to 1200m last time and grabbed late when beaten into second for the first time in the Listed Placid Ark Stakes (1200m) by Ripcord. Better for his last start and drawn well but the pressure here will be like something he’s never experienced.

VERDICT: The last 100m will find him out.

17e – CORN COB

Resumes here off a Geraldton trial win over 1100m. his form last prep was mostly in easier grade and this looks too rich.

VERDICT: Outclassed here.

18e – VALENCY

Did finish second in her latest outing in the Listed Jungle Mist (1200m) and her form prior, while winning, was in much easier grade.

VERDICT: Aiming too high.

****

TIPS

1st – OVERPASS (No. 1)

2nd – HOT ZED (No. 4)

3rd – TRIPLE MISSILE (No. 8)

4th – CLEMENCEAU (No. 10)

Originally published as Runner-by runner analysis and tips: Winterbottom Stakes

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Original URL: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/horse-racing/runnerby-runner-analysis-and-tips-winterbottom-stakes/news-story/e0235d415665a253a6da006f2e0e917a