Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips for Randwick on Saturday
Form expert Ron Dufficy cannot believe the odds for his top pick in The Ingham and says his best bet should be too good for his rivals.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy analyse every race at the $2m The Ingham meeting at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
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SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
R7 No.3: SEA KING
R9 No.5: HEDGED
Ron Dufficy: I quite like the three-year-old filly, Zoubaby. She’s had a nice little trial since two solid runs at stakes level in Melbourne over the spring so being a young filly, I think she might have more upside than most and will be hard to beat. Smashing Time is a better horse than what we saw last start and it was in a stakes race as well. He has a tongue tie on this week and a drop in grade should stand him in good stead. I think Lady Extreme is a mare who has got talent. She was nosed out at Canterbury first-up and was progressive last preparation. High Blue Sea has trialled up nicely under a hold and might rush home late nice and fresh.
Ray Thomas: Zoubaby is a promising filly who followed wins at Newcastle and Warwick Farm by vaulting straight to stakes grade when a competitive second in the Crockett Stakes at The Valley before her fifth in the Red Roses at Flemington. This is very strong form for a Midway and even though she is giving away age and experience to her rivals, she is the one to beat. Lady Extreme is underrated and can only improve off her very good first-up second at Canterbury. Trafalgar Square looks right in this after successive second placings including chasing home the impressive Flying For Fun at Warwick Farm. Smashing Time was beaten as favourite in a stakes race last start and drops back to a Midway where he looks hard to beat.
Dufficy: I am leaning Carribean King’s way because of the price. He’s had a five-week freshen since doing more than enough behind the favourite here, Duke Of Bronte, and he has to be seriously considered again. Duke Of Bronte was too sharp for Highway level first-up at this track and distance and then a little outclassed last time, although he did pull up with heat stress that day so he’ll be popular. Remember Jack is having his first run for a new stable. I like his Scone trial. He is a bit of a watch here but has an awkward draw. Tai Lung doesn’t win often but over-achieved there last start up in class and obviously should run well again.
Thomas: Duke Of Bronte won a Highway over the Randwick 1000m brilliantly when resuming then started favourite and didn’t have things go his way when a fading sixth to Pisanello at Kembla in very fast time. The Randwick track surface should be more forgiving which suits Duke Of Bronte. Tai Lung was beaten four lengths when fourth to Duke Of Bronte then finished ahead of his rival in the Kembla scamper when runner-up. Tai Lung is racing well and is not far off a win. Carribean King has been kept fresh since chasing home Duke Of Bronte just over a month ago and gets his chance. Super Impressive is fitter for recent racing and is an each way chance.
Dufficy: I like Allapercanto here. I really liked her two runs back from a spell. She hits the right distance third-up now and she is a good each-way price. Chica Mojito is struggling to win another race but is going well. Drops in class, she should be right in this. You have to like the way Redbreast rallied late after looking beaten there first-up. Hasn’t done too much wrong although I think she is way under the odds. Pier Pressure’s confidence is sky high putting two big wins together in easier class and she could be up to the class rise here.
Thomas: Redbreast led for home but looked well beaten when Drift Net sprinted about a length clear halfway down the straight before she fought back magnificently to score a remarkable first-up win at Rosehill. Redbreast hasn’t won beyond 1400m in her short career but she should run a strong 1600m and she looks likely to get complete control up front here. Allapercanto is the forgotten horse. She got well back and Kembla Grange second-up then kept running into dead ends from the top of the straight. She was doing her best work on the line is definitely worth another chance. Pier Pressure has found the line strongly to win successive starts and should go close again.
R4: JACK INGHAM AO HCP (1400m)
Dufficy: Tricky race. I’m expecting improvement from Bunker Hut after his good first-up run where he loomed up then knocked up. Any luck from the draw he’s right there. Dream Hour has had a month freshen since making good ground in a harder race at Newcastle so he might be ready to do something in this grade. Ravello was scratched last week from a Heavy track at Mudgee. I think he is going much better this preparation and has some chance. Rapbidash has been racing without luck lately but with blinkers, a good draw and no weight, he could surprise.
Thomas: Perfect Thought won a Carbine Club Stakes two years ago but has been winless since due to a variety of reasons. But he ran an encouraging race first-up, he can only improve and is a very talented horse when right. Bunker Hut ran very well first-up to just miss running down The Novelist and will be fitter but his second-up record is not flash and he has drawn wide. Aberlour won some nice races in New Zealand last season and is held in high regard by the stable.
Dufficy: Tricky two-year-old race. I quite like the way Cantiamo moved in her Newcastle trial. She is a well-bred filly who has drawn well and looks pretty sharp. I’m leaning her way to beat Imaginate, the Victorian, who has won a trial nicely at Traralgon and had two nice jump-outs prior to that so he has to be respected. Within The Law has race form on the board winning down the straight at Flemington. Her recent trial was a little inconclusive. Artistic Venture has had only one trial but he finished that trial off pretty nicely and looks talented.
Thomas: I’m going with the unbeaten Within The Law. The filly had impressed in two Sydney trials before making her debut on the Flemington straight course where she won the Inglis Banner convincingly. Promising filly who was powerful to the line at Flemington and has since had a quiet barrier trial at Canterbury to be ready for this race. Gobi Desert got all the favours in the Max Lees Classic but still did a very good job to score comfortably and can only be improved. Sequista matched motors with the smart Memo in a recent Canterbury barrier trial which stands her in good stead for her debut race. Imaginate won a Traralgon trial by a big margin and is in an astute stable.
R6: COOLMORE SPELLING AT MOUNT WHITE HCP (1800m)
Dufficy: I think Tavi Time has the right lead-up form for a race like this and he is sure to be around the mark again with the claim for young Benjamin Osmond. I think if Chica Mojito gets a run, she is a big threat here. She is very fit now and ready to go. Likewise her stablemate For Victory. He’s had his three runs back from a spell. I reckon he’s needed each one of them and he peaks up for the right day with no weight on his back as well. Cafe Millenium is a bit of an enigma, he’s a teasing type, he has only won one race and that was his debut in February 2023 but he has the talent if things fall into place for him.
Thomas: Tavi Time took a few strides to balance up in the straight but then he powered to the line to finish a close third in very fast time over 1600m at Kembla last start. He’s had a few chances but gives the impression getting out to 1800m will suit. Queen Of Dragons could be the upset horse. She comes out of two strong Melbourne races during the carnival where she was competitive and is at generous odds here. Café Millenium finds it hard to win but comes out of the Kembla race where he was closing off strongly to just miss a place. Saltcoats has had the one run back and is getting out to his right distance range.
Dufficy: I like Sea King here. He’s had a beautiful Gold Coast trial since the Melbourne Cup where it was a forgiving run where he overdid it. His Bendigo Cup win prior was good and I think he is too good for this field. Alalacance is talented. An interesting lightly-raced import who was very good after being attacked in the lead last start and 2400m suits better. Couple of good long shots here including Hoo Ya Mal who is better than what we’ve seen in his two runs back and he wasn’t suited back in distance last time. Naval College should be forgiven on the heavy track but he was building to something with two good runs prior to that.
Thomas: Alalcance was first-up for a year at 2140m and dominated the race to win by nearly four lengths at Warwick Farm. She then had two months between runs before a very good second at Kembla Grange over 2000m when run down by the promising Gilded Water. She has won at 2400m in Ireland and gets in on the limit weight here. There’s no obvious leader so Alalcance might be able to dictate terms in front. Floating romped home in the ATC Cup last start, excels at Randwick and should run the 2400m. Sky Lab has a risk at the trip but he’s been improved by recent racing and has a touch of quality. Sea King won the Bendigo Cup with a leg in the air then ran in the Melbourne Cup and got too far back early before finishing 14th behind Knight’s Choice. He’s one to watch.
Dufficy: I can’t believe Private Eye is nearly double-figure odds. I know he has been a little bit inconsistent this preparation but if he reproduces what he did in the Festival, there’ll be no betting here and we are getting a good price to find out. Xidaki is the one with the timing on the board, ready to go now with a few runs under his belt, good run last start. Port Lockroy was brought to a peak on the right day, winning the Railway. I know he is up 5kg now but that draw, he does get a perfect run in transit. Gringotts is hard to knock. He is in great form doing it both ends of late and he is now four from four at the mile.
Thomas: Typically open feature Randwick mile. I’ve landed on Estadio Mestalla. He has drawn wide but has tactical speed and should be able to settle near the lead. He races well at Randwick, excels at 1600m, and goes into the Ingham off a last start win at Kembla Grange over the mile when he ran faster time than The Gong. Estadio Mestalla drops 9kg to 53kg and is great each way value. Gringotts followed his win in the Big Dance by taking out The Gong. He’s flying, carries weight well and is drawn to get all the favours. Private Eye roared back to his best in the Festival Stakes and he has won an Epsom over this course and distance. I’mintowin set a Kembla 1400m track record first-up then had no issue with the heavy 10 track surface at Rosehill last Saturday to win easily again. Drawn off the track but has returned to racing in a rich vein of form.
Dufficy: I’m pretty keen on Hedged. I just think 1000m was a little out of his range there first-up. The extra distance here, second-up, good draw, ready to go, he’s hard to beat. I think Contemporary was the one with the most improvement out of the Eagle Nest lead-up race. Just needs a bit of luck and hopefully a bit of speed up front for him. Of the others, I think Moravia off a nice little freshen and a good draw as well fits in here. Jedibeel’s two runs back have been good. He’s a backmarker who needs things to happen up front, if they do, he’s right in the finish.
Thomas: Jedibeel, usually a model of consistency, had excuses when only eighth to Eagle Nest in the Starlight Stakes. After drifting back, Jedibeel was caught wide without cover but had the temerity to move into the race halfway down the straight before knocking up late. He is third up here, drawn to get a soft run and can bounce back. Contemporary was also disappointing first-up in the Starlight Stakes but races well this track and can bounce back. Hedged tried hard as favourite when third to Headwall in The Warra when resuming and rates among the main contenders. Eagle Nest led and dominated at Rosehill and she is just as effective on firmer tracks.
R10: SADDLES AT MOUNT WHITE HCP (1200m)
Dufficy: I like Jewellery. She had no luck first-up, should have finished much closer there. She was well fancied and gets her chance to atone. Eye Of The Fire brought his impressive midweek win to Saturday class last time looking the part. Does a few things wrong but is very talented. Left Field is ready to go now and will be steaming home. August Bloom was easy in the market before a late scratching on the wet last week but I just think she has trialled up much better this preparation.
Thomas: Jewellery struck trouble from the top of the straight and never got a clear crack at them, going to the line untested when a first-up fifth to Eye Of The Fire at Rosehill. Smart mare coming off a luckless run and this race sets up nicely for her. Stromboli chased the leader and eventual winner Fire Star throughout when fourth at Rosehill. Stromboli is racing competitively but finding it hard to win. August Bloom is trialling impressively and seems trained up to sprint well fresh. Yiska was very good beating subsequent winner Accredited at Canterbury when resuming but he has drawn off the track.
Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s race-by-race tips for Randwick on Saturday
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