Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis for Randwick
Racing editor Ray Thomas and form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the top chances for The Ingham meeting at Randwick to help you find a winner.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the chances across the 10 races for The Ingham meeting at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
Race 5, No.8: FACILE
VALUE BET
Race 3, No.16: IOWNA MERC
RAY’S BEST
Race 3, No.3: SACRIMONY
NEXT BEST
Race 7, No.4: WAIHAHA FALLS
VALUE BET
RACE 1, No.1: SALIRE
RACE 1: ARROWFIELD STUD HIGHWAY (1000m)
Ron Dufficy: I’m Not Slew was excellent first-up and rides the speed again from the good draw. Her dry track form is terrific and she will be hard to beat. Salire has had five weeks and a barrier trial since his very impressive win over this track and distance. Penthouse had an awkward draw but was good in a strong race first-up. She was also placed at stakes level behind In Secret last season. Pretty Woman, a stablemate of Penthouse, has been freshened and is a great chance.
Ray Thomas: Salire produced an electric finishing burst to win a Highway at Randwick on Cup Day. He has been kept fresh since and stays at 1000m. The big field will generate pressure and Salire will be finishing fast again. Demitasse is lightly-raced but shows promise and will be running on strongly. I’m Not Slew is drawn to get the right run as is Extra Flash who will race well.
RACE 2: THE BOB INGHAM AO MIDWAY (1600m)
Dufficy: I like Excelladus, I’m a fan of this horse. He is primed for a mile fourth-up and from the good draw, he will be hard to beat. King Ratel has the blinkers back on and he was very good late in a much tougher race last start. Floating was brilliant at this level when winning at Newcastle and it will pay to be a little forgiving of his last start run when he was up in class. The big improver could be Prince Aurelius. He will be bowling along up front and will give a sight.
Thomas: Excelladus does look well placed here. He put the writing on the wall last start with his close second at Kembla and the step up to 1600m is ideal. He’s ready to win. Floating was very impressive at Newcastle two starts back and is in his right grade here. I’ve also got King Ratel in my numbers as this race sets up well for him. Mediaro had excuses last start and is over the odds.
RACE 3: THE JACK INGHAM AO HCP (1100m)
Dufficy: I am keen on Iowna Merc. She is a raw filly and you could argue she should be unbeaten as she does a few little things wrong in her races. When the penny drops she is going to be a very smart filly. Sacrimony caught the eye charging home first-up and if he reproduces that effort he will go close. Billiondollarbaby is a work in progress and her recent trials suggest she will be hard to beat first-up here. Operative hasn’t done anything wrong winning his two runs back and maps well again.
Thomas: Sacrimony had an indifferent winter campaign but there were encouraging signs when he resumed at Kembla with a fast finishing second over 1000m in very fast time. He’s fitter, will appreciate the Randwick 1100m course and is protecting an unbeaten second-up record. Operative is an emerging sprinter in top form, Iowna Merc will be hard to beat despite the wide draw, and Billiondollarbaby is trialling brilliantly.
RACE 4: CHRISTMAS CUP (2400m)
Dufficy: This might be a nice race for Regal Lion. He did a good job running on in the ATC Cup, he is a real dry tracker and will get conditions to suit. Dr Drill just wasn’t right two starts back but bounced back with a much better run the other day and gets to 2400m where he is proven. Bonny Ezra has come back well winning third-up and he can only improve again. Gin Martini has to come back from 3200m but she is a strong staying mare who has found form.
Thomas: You can make a case for most of the runners in this race. I’ve landed on Dr Drill. He indicated a return to winning form was imminent with his close second in the ATC Cup last start and the 2400m is in his favour. Gin Martini was very good winning the Sandown Cup and she has the versatility to drop back to 2400m and run well again. Pale King is better suited at this trip and is capable of being in the finish. Rondino should have finished closer last start and is a very good lightweight chance.
RACE 5: INGLIS NURSERY (1000m)
Dufficy: Facile looks quite talented. She has won two trials in dashing style and running time. She will be hard to beat on what we have seen from her. Disneck improved at his second start and with race experience he could go right on with it despite the sticky draw. The Little Pumper’s two trials have been good and the stable is in-form. Blanc De Blanc scraped home as a long odds on favourite at Newcastle and her previous trial form suggests she is better than that.
Thomas: I’m also gone with the obvious brilliance of Facile rather than the race experience of Disneck. The barrier draw suits Facile who has superior tactical speed and will put herself into a controlling position. Her trial wins have been very impressive. Disneck has a wide barrier to overcome but this is only 1000m and he was very strong late at Rosehill. Saltaire nearly upset Blanc De Blanc at Newcastle and both have chances.
RACE 6: Wests Group Macarthur Hcp (1200m)
Dufficy: Brookspire didn’t come up last preparation but she has been airborne in her two trials this time in. She just might be too good for this lot. Authentic Jewel gets across and takes control up front. She just has to run a strong 1200m. Barossa Rosa has been trained up with a couple of trials and rarely disappoints fresh. Kir Royale has been keen in her trials and although she might be better second-up, she is right in this with no weight on her back.
Thomas: Authentic Jewel has steadily improved with each run this campaign and only just missed at Rosehill last start, being edged out right on the line. I take your point Ronnie; she has never won at 1200m but she gets her opportunity here. I was on Per Inaway first-up and want to give her another chance. Kir Royale is building a good race record and can sprint well fresh. Queen Bellissimo is fitter and is set to run an improved race.
RACE 7: RAZOR SHARP HCP (1200m)
Dufficy: I like Brigantine with no weight, Ray. He has been freshened up and won a barrier trial since she ran third in the Silver Eagle behind Vilana. The form stands out for this race. Waihaha Falls is a talented horse and although he is dropping back slightly in distance, he carries 7kg less which is a huge plus. A good longshot is Much Much Better who has some very good first-up form and his recent trial was sharp. Eleven Eleven has had an easy trial since losing his rider at Newcastle and this is the time of year when he excels.
Thomas: In a very competitive race, I like Waihaha Falls. He is a talented sprinter, at his peak after two runs from a spell, and finds himself in a winnable stakes race over his favourite course and distance. He’s the one to beat. Fox Fighter is underrated but continues to race consistently. He has the ability to reel off very fast closing sectionals. Brigantine does look hard to beat and Dragonstone is worth another chance on his home track.
RACE 8: THE INGHAM (1600m)
Dufficy: This is a deep race but I’m thinking Brutality. I want to be on him on the quick back-up and going out to the mile. He gets plenty of speed up front and the big Randwick straight suits him. I know he hasn’t won in a while but he is going so well and just needs luck in running. Huetor is the class horse and definitely good enough if ready off one barrier trial. Riodini has found winning form and could go right on with it. I was taken by the recent trial of New Mandate and he could be the surprise package.
Thomas: Huetor, winner of the Doomben Cup earlier this year, is resuming off one impressive barrier trial effort. An outstanding galloper, Huetor will be in the finish with even luck in running. In a race of many chances, second emergency Nugget will be hard to beat if he secures a start. Dajraan was dominant first-up in the Festival Stakes and should be improved by the run. Mile specialist Kirwan’s Lane is racing in top form and rates among the main chances.
RACE 9: THANKS JACK AND BOB INGHAM HCP (1600m)
Dufficy: Lots of chances here but I’m going for value with Bullfinch. He ran well behind Nugget last start when he was on the worst part of the track. There shouldn’t be that much between Bullfinch and Nugget in the betting. Nugget is a promising horse on the rise and was dominant landing good bets in the same race at Kembla Grange. Jojo Was A Man is a good longshot as he has needed the two runs back and this looks a target race. Irish Legend might get an easy time of it racing on top of the speed.
Thomas: If Nugget doesn’t get into The Ingham, then he should give his connections some compensation by winning this race. Nugget created a big impression winning with ease at Kembla last start and he should be too good for this field. Steely is racing well without winning, Mahagoni is a good lightweight chance and Cisco Bay is in career-best form.
RACE 10: PFD HANDICAP (1400m)
Dufficy: I want to give Arnaqueur another chance. He was another on the wrong part of the track at Kembla last start. Both his runs this campaign have been good and from the good barrier he will be competitive. Democracy Manifest hasn’t had a lot of luck with his racing pattern of getting well back in the field but the big Randwick track should help him. I would love to see Robusto win in the cerise colours on Ingham Day and he has a good chance. I Am Lethal is threatening to win.
Thomas: Democracy Manifest gets a long way back in his races but he does have a powerful finishing burst. He is consistent and just needs luck in running. I Am Lethal is appreciating the drier tracks and is ready to win. Sweet Ruby has been improved by two runs from a spell but has drawn off the track. Soami is backing up after a solid effort at Rosehill a week ago.
SATURDAY EXTRA
Shayne O’Cass’s top picks
KEMBLA GRANGE
BEST BET
Race 6, No.2: HULM
A promising Zoustar colt who has looked the goods in every one of his five trials dating back to July. Loaded with talent.
NEXT BEST
Race 8, No.6: INVICTUS LAD
Overcame difficulty to score a narrow win on debut on a tight track. Better for that run and Kembla will suit him so much more.
VALUE BET
Race 1, No.4: AMIGOS NO MORE
Locally-trained gelding who hasn’t had a lot of luck in a few of his five starts. Should have finished closer here last time.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 1,2,3
Race 6: 2
Race 7: 4,5,12
Race 8: 6
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Mitchell Bell is entitled to be a short-priced favourite to take out Saturday’s Kembla TAB Jockeys Challenge.
ALBURY
BEST BET
Race 1, No.8: KAPPY’S ANGEL
Placed at two of her three starts and was fourth here in the other run. All were quite good quality maidens.
NEXT BEST
Race 4, No.1: LA SANTE
One of the better horses who calls Albury home. Not a moral but might be too good.
COFFS HARBOUR
BEST BET
Race 1, No.1: BOW
Donna Grisedale-trained gelding who doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Peaking.
NEXT BEST
Race 2, No.5: SIPPIN SEASON
Jon Grisedale this time; he’ll be riding this one on Saturday. A horse whom he win on here not that long ago.
Originally published as Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis for Randwick
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