Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy discuss the top chances at Randwick for the Chelmsford Stakes meeting to help you find some winners.
Horse Racing
Don't miss out on the headlines from Horse Racing. Followed categories will be added to My News.
The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the chances on a bumper 10-race Chelmsford Stakes meeting at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
R8 No.15: MONTEFILIA
BEST VALUE
R3 No.3: PARTY FOR ONE
R4 No.10: CHALK STREAM
R1: TAB HIGHWAY (1200m)
RON DUFFICY: I like Opal Ridge. She is a filly with a bright future. She was unlucky two starts back and ran competitively in a Group 2 against her own age last start. She looks so well placed going into a Highway. Optimo was enormous considering circumstances last start and he is threatening to win another race. I wish the track was drier for Participator and he has an awkward draw but the extra distance suits him. Pure Fuego hasn’t won in a while but he has a good draw and a nice trial to his credit.
RAY THOMAS: In a tough opener, Prince Nicconi is worth an each-way gamble. He’s going to need everything to go his way from an awkward draw but he’s out to his right trip, handles soft tracks and is at his peak after two solid runs this campaign. So Country rides the speed and makes his own luck. Participator was very good in his return race but the wide barrier is a leveller. Opal Ridge and Optimo are also winning chances.
R2: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1800m)
DUFFICY: I’m giving Bella Violet another chance. She struck a little trouble last start and might have been one run short so I’m leaning her way in a very difficult Midway as they usually are. Scorched Earth landed good bets winning last start and although he is up 2kg he finds a similar race. Brown Thomas is going well for the new stable but I’m not completely sold coming back in distance here. Buba will find the soft track much more to her liking.
THOMAS: Bacio Del Mist was at big odds when she finished strongly to run down Green Flash at the Canterbury midweeks. This is harder but she improves the deeper she goes in her preparation, enjoys soft tracks and is at each way odds again. Scorched Land and Bella Violet rate highly for all the reasons you mentioned, Ron. I’ve also got Buba in my top four as this race sets up well for her.
R3: WORLD GYM CASTLEREAGH HCP (1100m)
DUFFICY: I’m having a throw at the stumps here with first-up horse Party For One. She hasn’t been let go in her two trials and I’m suspecting she will be hitting the line very hard at good odds. Hoover Lucy is off a long break but she looked sharp moving well in that recent trial. Jal Lei is back in distance but loves to finish down the outside and gets the chance to do that here. Duchy Of Savoy won well in Victoria last start when well fancied after trialling well in Sydney prior to that win.
THOMAS: Jal Lei gets back in her races but she has a powerful finish. She comes off successive minor placings and is bursting to win a race. This is her chance. Never Second is racing well and seems over the odds. Shihonka is a smart mare but doesn’t want the track to be too wet. Duchy Of Savoy has come up well this campaign and will be hard to beat.
R4: CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB CUP (2400m)
DUFFICY: It’s a bit of a guess here but I like Chalk Stream. It was a total forgive run after rearing at the start and I feel he is just the best stayer in this field. Most of these horses are unproven at 2400m but I can see Chalk Stream riding the speed here and out-staying his rivals. Arapaho is going really well and is the forgotten horse in the market. Toomuchtobear is on trial at this distance but gets in light and is ready to win. Cadre Du Noir is a progressive stayer who has a last start win at this track and distance.
THOMAS: Raging Bull is an underrated stayer. He ran well in the Victoria Derby and ATC Australian Derby last season and his first-up effort to win at Rosehill carrying 61kg over 1800m was very good. He’s obviously returned in great form, he’s a strong stayer and drops 7kg here. Arapaho has been up for an extended campaign but seems to be getting better with racing and he enjoys rain-affected tracks. The Maher and Eustace-trained stablemates Through Irish Eyes and Cadre Du Noir are very fit and will run this trip out strongly.
R5: CONCORDE STAKES (1000m)
DUFFICY: There is high pressure here with Eduardo and Malkovich so I’m going for Andermatt, who is a brilliant fresh horse. He is suited here with the wet track, race run to suit, and he gets last look at them. Randwick with the rail out 7m usually favours those down the outside. Eduardo is unbeaten at this track and distance and he will be hard to beat. Malkovich is a real speedster and will give a good sight. Masked Crusader is a class horse and will be running on but I would have preferred a drier track for him.
THOMAS: Eduardo might be a nine-year-old but he remains as sharp as ever. Absolutely outstanding sprinter and holder of the Randwick 1000m course record. Eduardo always races well fresh, he excels over the short course, and handles all track conditions. Masked Crusader is the danger. His recent trial was super but if the track gets into the heavy range, it dulls his powerful finish. The Godolphin pair, Zapateo and Andermatt are both brilliant types but they will be tested at this elite level.
R6: FURIOUS STAKES (1200m)
DUFFICY: This is a very deep race. I must say I was really taken by the gallop of She’s Extreme between races at Rosehill last week. She is a Group 1 winner and is the one that will be storming home down the middle late. In Secret should have come on well from her unlucky run first-up. Willinga Beast is a big improver who will relish a soft track. Paris Dior has been carefully handled and promised to be a better filly as a three-year-old.
THOMAS: In Secret lost her unbeaten record but only gained admirers with her fast finishing second behind Zougotcha in the Silver Shadow Stakes. In Secret was held up for a run in the straight and would have finished much closer with a clear run. Fitter now and hard to beat. Paris Dior is a very talented filly and is the main danger. She’s Extreme and Sheeza Belter both won at Group 1 level last season and has the class and ability to be in the finish.
R7: TRAMWAY STAKES (1400m)
DUFFICY: Zaaki is a class weight-for-age performer who has had a good grounding and is set to perform well. Converge resuming at 1400m appeals and he is still a little untapped so I’m very interested in him. Profondo was terrific in his return and I would have been tipping him on top if it was a drier track. Yearning is the forgotten horse. She is a good mare and he trials have been great so it would not surprise me if she caused an upset.
THOMAS: Zaaki won this race in dominant style 12 months ago and seems to be coming up as well as ever judging by his recent trials and track gallops. Outstanding racehorse and the soft track is no issue. Profondo is the big danger. He was three-wide without cover in the Winx Stakes and did a super job to finish third to Anamoe. He’s got a fitness edge over Zaaki which could be crucial if the track does become testing. Converge has been trialling well and will be finishing fast. I also like the look of Yearning at the trials.
R8: CHELMSFORD STAKES (1600m)
DUFFICY: I’m keen on Montefilia. She is a proven Group 1 weight-for-age mare and only has to be ready to win. I get it with Surefire. His sectional times were brilliant from his first-up win over an unsuitable distance and he gets to weight-for-age very quickly here. The big improver here is Mo’unga. If he can put himself into the race early here and has the perfect jockey to do that in Nash Rawiller, it may just switch this horse on. The map looks good for him, too. Numerian is underrated and should run well.
THOMAS: Mo’unga was held up for a run from the top of the straight in the Winx Stakes and didn’t get into the clear until the race was over. He deserves another chance and on his best form, he would be a standout selection. Surefire is an intriguing runner. He was super impressive first-up and has the necessary acceleration to be effective at weight-for-age. Benaud ran a blinder first-up in the Winx Stakes and he can only improve. Montefilia is an outstanding mare and is right in this race.
R9: CONNECTION 2 SPORTS HCP (1200m)
DUFFICY: Impossible race, Ray. I’ve gone for Starman. He’s a good fresh performer and I feel he is a better horse than his form suggests, and his trials have been good. Silent Impact has plenty of talent, maps well, and is drawn to get the right run. Zarastro was well fancied first-up but might have been a tough ring rusty. Arbitration did a good job when up in class last time and hits her peak here.
THOMAS: Silent Impact is protecting a perfect first-up record. His trials have been good and he excels on soft tracks. Advantaged by the draw and will be hard to beat. War Eternal wants it further but his trial win over Zaaki at Hawkesbury suggests he is trained up for his return. Zarastro is fitter and worth another chance. I’m wary of Geo at double figure odds.
R10: IKON SERVICES HCP (1600m)
DUFFICY: Another tough race. Paternal has more upside than most in this race and he looks big odds. Alcyone has been freshened with a trial since his last run and should be competitive. This is a better race for Bold Mac who is drawn to get cover and is likeable at the weights. Opacity won’t know himself with such a lightweight and loves this track and distance.
THOMAS: Wicklow is coming back from 1800m and has had five weeks between runs but the big field should generate pressure which gives him the chance to unleash late. Niffler is the danger. She was impressive winning over the Randwick mile course last start. Opacity has been improved by recent racing and will go close. Alcyone will have his admirers in an open race.
Originally published as Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Winning form matters for Stayer’s Cup favourite
Trainer John Sargent is expecting another bold showing from his in-form stayer Casual Connection in the Stayer’s Cup at Rosehill.
Tamworth tips, inside mail for Friday
Form analyst Shayne O’Cass provides his best bets and race-race analysis for Tamworth and Moruya on Friday.