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Racewatch: Shayne O’Cass’ tips, analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

Group 1 winner Tom Kitten has undergone the ‘ultimate gear change’ and can kick off his campaign on a winning note. Get Shayne’s tips and inside mail for the 10-race card.

Shayne O’Cass
4 min read
August 15, 2024 - 1:29PM
Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes winner Tom Kitten is now a gelding and ready to kick off his campaign with a win. Picture: Jeremy Ng/Getty Images
Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes winner Tom Kitten is now a gelding and ready to kick off his campaign with a win. Picture: Jeremy Ng/Getty Images

Form analyst for Racenet and The Daily Telegraph, Shayne O’Cass, provides his tips and analysis for the 10-race card at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, August 17, 2024.

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RACE 1: SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1300m)

JUST PARTY (1) won, easily too as it happens, either side of placings in races that were both won by Broadsiding no less. The son of Justify was really warming up late in the Gatbsy’s trial here the other day. Drawn 8 of 8 (bad), J-Mac rides (good). CANNY QUEEN (8) was $12 into $8.50 when she powered home over the top of her rivals to won a 1200m Maiden at Wyong on August 4. By Ace High so is only going to improve again. AUTUMN GLOW (7) and IMPERIAL FORCE (2) cost $3.4 million between them and can gallop.

Bet: Just Party to win

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RACE 2: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1500m)

COSMIC LAD (12) got a long way back first-up over 1200m at Newcastle and with 60kg on board. He clocked in eighth of 10 but only beaten four lengths. All in all, it wasn’t a bad run bearing in mind that his only win so far was second-up at 1500m. He did only get beaten three and a half in the Randwick Guineas. Speaking of ‘hidden runs’, IRISH KISSES (10) was very good herself first-up at Warwick Farm over 1300m. PEACE OFFICER (1) just needs some decent footing.

Bet: Cosmic Lad to win, Irish Kisses each-way, quinella 10, 12

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RACE 3: TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1300m)

PROPHET’S DAUGHTER (13) was very safe indeed circa $16 when she contested her first Highway back on April 27. Long story short, she was last out and 15th of 15 at the turn which was not the plan. She ended up running seventh (very strong late) in a good Highway. Trials are ace. ACHESON (22) is Highway grade every day of the week. LISZTOMANIA (3) has contested six Highways for three seconds, a third a last start fourth among them.

Bet: Prophet’s Daughter each-way

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RACE 4: JAMES SQUIRE HANDICAP (1100m)

LOST (8) has clearly come back well. She was super impressive winning first-up at Warwick Farm, impressive enough it seems for James McDonald who is sticking with her for this one. Massive watch on THUNDERLIPS (4). He’s a good horse trialling well, nay, very well. You could make the case that 1400m is his best trip but he is fresh of course and he has a 1000m win on his C.V. That was on debut. Chances are this will be run fast again which certainly brings NOSEY PARKER (5) into the equation. He did beat Spring Lee at the track and trip two weeks ago.

Bet: Lost to win

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RACE 5: KIA ORA PRAGUE HANDICAP (1400m)

ANAHITA (4) is scheduled to make her NSW debut for new trainer Chris Waller, unless the wide draw keeps her at home. All we can say is that she has been trialling in very encouraging and pleasing style. Handles any and all conditions. The numbers of SEQUESTERED (5) can do the talking here; two from two at the trip, one from one at the track, two second-up runs for a win and a second. HELLAVADANCER (2) has won five from 25 and placed seven times which is admirable on its own but anyone can see that she is building up to win number six.

Bet: Anahita each-way or if scratched Sequestered to win

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RACE 6: SYDNEY MARKETS ROSEBUD (1100m)

HIGH OCTANE (3), a $1.05 million Easter Yearling, has raced three times, all at Caulfield in the Blue Diamond series. For the record, he beat stablemate and subsequent Black Opal winner Holmes A Court on debut in the Preview. Covered ground in the ‘Final’ so be forgiving. Brilliant in his trial at Randwick. BRAVE ONE (8) easily handled Mayfair et al on debut and won like a colt that would take lots of benefit out of the day. Brave One was passed late in the same High Octane trial on August 6 by GATSBY’S (2) who has always had a boom on him.

Bet: High Octane to win, exacta 3 to beat 8

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RACE 7: TOYOTA MATERIAL HANDLING HANDICAP (1200m)

DALAALAAT (7) has the draw to win this time. He also has the ability. He is an eight-year-old now yet his three runs this prep are two lengths off in the Hinkler and the Ramornie and as for the last one, he was gone after he drew 9. TERRA MATER (6) has such a brilliant record that it deserves mention; 14 starts, six wins, five seconds and a third. Nash is four from five on her. What about the trials? CAVALIER CHARLES (4) was, IMHO, the best winner of any race on the two day Grafton carnival. This looks run to suit him, big time.

Bet: Dalaalaat to win, box trifecta 1, 4, 6, 7

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RACE 8: PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1400m)

I can name four horses, we all know who they are, who will be in some very big, the biggest even, races this spring. Let’s start with TOM KITTEN (6) who looked like he could maybe win the Triple Crown last autumn, but was disappointing in all three legs to varying degrees. So long as there is some freshness in his legs, he can run over the top and win. Same for CEOLWULF (3). You may disagree but I think he was the rightful ATC Derby winner. Francesco Guardi would beat both of them if he was screwed down.

Bet: Tom Kitten to win, quinella 3, 6, Daily Double 1st Leg (6), 2nd Leg (8)

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RACE 9: ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP (1900m)

Just for some context, I had UNANIMOUS (2) down as borderline ‘good thing’ on August 3 but it was clear before the turn that there was something wrong; turned out to be cardiac arrhythmia. I know there’s no stats to say it one way or another, but I know people whose system bet is ‘next run after cardiac arrhythmia’. ETNA ROSSO (1), GO TROPPO (10) are among many other chances.

Bet: Unanimous to win, Asgoodassobergets each-way, quinella 2, 6

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RACE 10: TAB HANDICAP (1400m)

UP AND UNDER (8) was a real street corner tip first-up at $21 and make no mistake, he should have won and won easily. That’s about the best thing beaten on a Saturday I can remember for a while. That said, this is a stronger race on paper. Case in point, LORD OF BISCAY (15), who was the eye-catcher in the Iron Man and Willaidow race at his Australian debut. Reckon ‘Cav’s’ got this former Godolphin galloper INDIFFERENCE (14) ‘flying’ right now.

Bet: Up And Under to win, Indifference to place

Originally published as Racewatch: Shayne O’Cass’ tips, analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

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Original URL: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/horse-racing/racewatch-shayne-ocass-tips-analysis-for-rosehill-gardens-on-saturday/news-story/238970a0f029382290b881451ba3c3cc