Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Rosehill

A David Payne-trained gelding finally got luck go his way to break through for a well-earned win and he can go back-to-back at Rosehill. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

State Of America looks hard to beat again when he heads to Rosehill on Wednesday. Picture: Bradley Photos

Daily Telegraph form analyst Adam Sherry gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Rosehill.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

GOSFORD

BEST BET

Race 6 No. 4: State Of America

The David Payne-trained gelding broke through for a deserved win in a Midway at Randwick last Tuesday and looks hard to beat again

NEXT BEST

Race 2 No. 4: Vanquished

Will take improvement from his first-up third behind stablemate Sly Boots. Drawn well and can atone here.

VALUE BET

Race 5 No. 8: Atlantic Ocean

Hasn’t had a lot go his way at his last few runs and due for a change of luck.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 2, 3, 5

Race 5: 2, 6, 8, 9

Race 6: 4, 7, 11

Race 7: 3, 4, 8, 11

James McDonald can take out the Jockey Challenge at Rosehill. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

James McDonald rides at his first Sydney meeting since November 1. Has a strong book of rides and is the one to beat in the TAB Jockey Challenge.

INSIDE MAIL - ROSEHILL

RACE 1

The well-named Storm Boy is by Justify from Pelican, a daughter of seven-time NZ Group 1 winner, Seachange. This colt has been brilliant in winning both his trials and can give Tulloch Lodge another two-year-old winner. Spywire is by Trapeze Artist from the Listed winner, Secret Trail. Rolled forward to lead and win his Rosehill trial last week by a length. Canara is daughter of I Am Invincible from Group 3 winner Karavali. Tracked leader when second in her first Rosehill behind Trafalgar Square before an easy sixth to the same horse in her second. Vinniro is a son of I Am Invincible from Lady Cartier, a granddaughter if Shantha’s Choice. Trials have been handy.

Bet: Storm Boy to win

RACE 2

Vanquished rolled along in front before finishing a length and a half third to the well-supported Sly Boots on the Kensington over 1300m three weeks ago. Will be better for the run and can atone here. Sensory ran on smartly from back in the field for a half-length third to Cosmos on debut ta Newcastle on Nov 4. Can settle a little closer from the inside gate. Waikato Girl was doing her best work over the last 200m when third to Emmadella over 1300m at her first start at Kembla on Oct 28. Steps up to 1400m and the daughter of Savabeel will continue to appreciate more ground.

Bet: Vanquished to win. Quinella/trifecta 4, 7, 9

RACE 3

Fleetwood jumped awkwardly and drifted back to last from his wide gate before running home strongly for second to all-the-way winner Gustosisimo when resuming on the Kensington. Was third to Ozzmosis at his last run before a spell. Armed Forces was held up in the straight when a two and a quarter length seventh to Mumbai Muse in the Listed Crowley Stakes start. Wouldn’t have won but should have finished closer. Yankee One kicked off her campaign in perfect fashion over 1100m here on Oct 26 and can make it two in-a-row. She settled midfield before coming three and four-wide off the bend and dashing home to win by a length and a half.

Bet: Fleetwood to win

Molly Nails looks a great chance in Race 4. Picture: Bradley Photos

RACE 4

Molly Nails has been racing better than her form might suggest and looks like she will appreciate stepping up to 1500m. Was held up before flashing home last for third when resuming behind Smashing Eagle here in August before making up plenty of ground at her next two runs. Had to be steadied late when fourth to Hide Your Heart on the Kensington last start. Miss Hades got a couple of wins under her belt in the country before a close third to Bully For You at Kembla last start. Racing with plenty of confidence and ready to step up to midweek company. Miss Checkoni raced outside the leader when fourth to Peace Office in a Midway here before an eighth to the same horse in a Randwick Midway last start. Will appreciate dropping back to midweek grade.

Bet: Molly Nails to win

RACE 5

Atlantic Ocean raced three-wide without cover when just over two lengths behind Furious on the Kensington two weeks ago at his first run back from a let-up. Badly held up when a three-quarter length second to Silvanito on the same track two starts back. Due for a change of luck. The King was rewarded for his consistent form this campaign with an impressive all-the-way win by nearly two lengths from Sawrey at Kembla on Oct 21. Miss Faberge contested stakes races as a two-year-old and raced well last campaign with a win and four seconds. Has returned a more mature mare and scored a smart win first-up at Gosford. Ready to go on with it now.

Bet: Atlantic Ocean each-way

RACE 6

State Of America was something beaten in a Midway at Randwick then got pocketed when second to Twigman at Gosford. Finally had some luck when a game winner from The Carpet Bagger in a Midway at Randwick on Nov 7. Can make it two in-a-row. Condrieu broke through for her second career win over 1850m at Newcastle in August before a third over 2110m and a fifth over 2200m at Warwick Farm. Dropped back to 1800m on the Kensington and closed well for a second behind Metusalem. Form out of that race has been good with Lyrical Gangster (fifth) and Yet He Moves (third) going one-two next start. Buillt placed behind Lyrical Gangster last start and has claims again.

Bet: State Of America to win

RACE 7

Flying Trapeze drops back in grade from his eighth behind Chrysaor in the Group 2 Callander-Presnell (1600m) after working hard to cross to the lead and he was still in front at the 150m. He also drops back to 1500m here. Nice in on the Kensington before that. Wide draw again unfortunately. The Little Pumper is better than his two ruins since a let-up. Kicked up to lead before finishing seventh behind Makarena in the Tapp-Craig then was caught out three-wide in the Callander-Presnell when tenth. Yet He Moves has placed at his last three runs over 1800m twice and at 2000m. The latest a close second to stablemate Lyrical Gangster on the Kensington. Drops back to 1500m.

Bet: Frying Trapeze to win