Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Kembla Grange, Muswellbrook

A Sam Kavanagh-trained gelding has done enough in his five starts to warrant top-billing when he steps out on Kembla Grange Classic Day.

Sam Kavanagh can start the day on a high note with Hellbetta in the opening race at Kembla. Picture: Grant Guy

The Daily Telegraph’s form analyst Shayne O’Cass provides his best bets and quaddie analysis for Kembla Grange and Muswellbrook on Friday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

KEMBLA GRANGE

BEST BET

Race 1 No. 1: Hellbetta

The Sam Kavanagh-trained gelding has placed three from five, two of them are at this track and distance. Has been trialling well.

NEXT BEST

Race 2 No. 1: Brazil

Lightly-raced blueblood who is but getting better all the time. Finds his race.

VALUE BET

Race 8 No. 1: Vain Invader

Ran third, albeit a distant one, to Tavi Time in the Provincial-Midway Qualifier at Newcastle.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1, 6

Race 6: 1, 2, 3, 7, 14

Race 7: 1, 2, 7, 12

Race 8: 1, 2, 3

Jay Ford represents good value in the Jockey Challenge at Kembla. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Jay Ford could be the value bet in the Kembla TAB Jockeys Challenge.

MUSWELLBROOK

BEST BET

Race 7 No. 9: Keikoku

Only won twice in 15 starts but has mixed and matched it with better horses than these.

NEXT BEST

Race 1 No. 12: Sensitive Soul

Every run has been better than that last for this locally trained two-year-old filly.

VALUE BET

Race 5 No. 4: Himorher

Big winner here before finishing runner-up to Know Thyself at Scone.

INSIDE MAIL - KEMBLA GRANGE

RACE 1

Hellbetta showed his true colours at his second preparation, placing at all three of his assignments, two of them happened to be at this very track and distance. Trainer Sam Kavanagh has found the ideal race for the son of Hellbent whose trials speak of a horse that is ready for the occasion. Locally housed Habibti descendant Sir Sublime sent out all the right signs that this would be a productive second preparation for him when fourth at Moruya 12-days ago. Asteride, another local, is a two-year-old against older horses but is way down in class.

Bet: Hellbetta to win

RACE 2

Brazil was a $580,000 Magic Millions Yearling purchase. He is by Pierro out of the Belle of the Turf, Hawkesbury Crown winner Pecans. No wonder he’s with Joe Pride then. Brazil is a really striking type whose two runs suggest he is a real improver at home. Chentileeno is a local but is saddled with a visitor’s draw. Last two runs bring him into this. Outlander ran a million times better than eighth of 11 in a very - say it again, very strong maiden first-up.

Bet: Brazil to win

RACE 3

Wilshire Boulevard is a Tavistock mare from the Gay Poss family which accounts for her stamina. She is in the right stable too with John Sargent who has served her up another wholly suitable and winnable 2400m race. Pharaline is unplaced in all five starts so far but now that she is getting to her right trips, she is showing her best side. At home, 2400m bang on for her now. The ‘best’ Fun Sunday just wins but she hasn’t been at her best the last few.

Bet: Wilshire Boulevard to win, quinella 5, 10

RACE 4

Media World is the first foal of dual Group 3 winner Meryl. The son of Written Tycoon fetched $1.4 million at Easter in 2023. The Snowden Racing colt ran a huge race in the Merson Cooper on debut back on December 2. Trialled like a bomb at Randwick a few weeks ago. Kirragirl gave a good account of herself on debut at Canterbury then went to a Rosehill midweeker and showed the improvement that you would expect from a Waller filly bred this darn well. Speaking of Waller and I Am Invincible Resilient Miss is going to make the grade.

Bet: Media World to win or if scratched, quinella 10, 12

Garza Blanca gets there!@cmaherracing and @mcacajamez close the card at Randwick. pic.twitter.com/2OV0EI5Rs9

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) September 2, 2023

RACE 5

Garza Blanca always seems to get talked up when you see Ciaron Maher on the tele which suggests that he has a favourable opinion on this son on I Am Invincible. You can see why too with his great record of three wins and four seconds from 11 starts and all in pretty slick company too. Small field and fats pace is helpful. Ditto that for Waihaha Falls who has finished with a medal at half of his 20 starts. Not easy that. Coastwatch is a big watch. Key Largo is the type of horse who blowse them late.

Bet: Garza Blanca to win

RACE 6

Hinchinjive has drawn wide and we noted that he has a nomination pending for Hawkesbury on Tuesday. In case he does head to Kembla, it is worth remembering that one of his two wins was at this venue and over this trip. Shapes a ‘second-up improver’. Owari generates considerable interest here first-up. He has been well-placed throughout hence his rock solid strike rate. You could almost say that he races best at Kembla. That goes double for Pure Hydrogen who hasn’t got a flash first-up record but the trials have been shipshape.

Bet: Hinchinjive each-way or if scratched Owari to win and Pure Hydrogen to place

RACE 7

Tutta La Vita accepted for the Phar Lap on Saturday. She’s drawn wide in both places and while no one really likes wide barriers, I suspect it makes little difference to her with her pattern and we all want to see her get clear running. Private Legacy had a massive boost to her confidence with that easy win here in a Class 1 last start. She’s closer to Group 1 than Class 1. Big fan of Zarrose, especially at the mile. Arctic Glamour might have been looking for a mile all along.

Bet: Tutta La Vita to win, Zarrose each-way, box trifecta 1, 2, 7, 9, 12

RACE 8

Vain Invader can ensure Theresa Bateup gets on the board (at least once) on Kembla’s biggest day despite his wide draw and big weight. The son of Invader has won three times overall, two of them are here at Kembla. The other was at the Sapphire Coast a month prior to his third to Tavi Time in the Provincial-Midway Heat at Newcastle. Stablemate Victory At Omaha wasn’t beaten far on the Kensington track on Valentine’s Day and has a draw to put him up at the speed where he likes to be. Same goes for Extreme Freedom who has won two here at home.

Bet: Vain Invader to win