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Stradbroke Handicap runner-by runner analysis and tips

The time-honoured Stradbroke Handicap is set to be run on Saturday and as is usually the case, there are a host of chances in Queensland’s biggest race.

Racenet
6 min read
June 12, 2024 - 2:31PM
Vilana is the favourite for the Stradbroke Handicap on Saturday. Picture: Grant Peters/Trackside Photography.
Vilana is the favourite for the Stradbroke Handicap on Saturday. Picture: Grant Peters/Trackside Photography.

The $3 million Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap (1400m), Queensland’s premier race, has drawn together a competitive field.

The barrier draw for Saturday’s race at Eagle Farm has turned the race on its head, with many of the leading contenders drawing out in the cheap seats.

Here is a runner-by-runner analysis of every horse set to line up on Saturday.

1 – BELLA NIPOTINA 

She’s never raced better than she has during this carnival, beating and pushing I Wish I Win to the limit in two Group 1 weight-for-age races. First time at 1400m and back onto a firm surface are queries while she’s also drawn just two in from the outside.

VERDICT: Letting her run against us this time.

2 – MAGIC TIME 

Two starts back she won a Group 1 weight-for-age race over this trip in the All Aged Stakes. Six weeks later she appeared to have every chance in the Kingsford Smith Cup and was found wanting at the business end, beaten 6-1/2 lengths in eighth.

VERDICT: Needs to lift but capable at her best.

3 – ANTINO 

Local chance that was good winning the Victory Stakes over 1200m at weight-for-age two starts back. Last time stepped up to take on the A-graders and wasn’t disgraced, making up ground in the straight. Set to peak here but draw did him no favours.

VERDICT: Each-way claims with luck in running.

4 – BENEDETTA 

One of the most improved horses in the land this season and she got her just reward last time out when winning her first Group 1 in The Goodwood. 1400m is new territory but her performances in The Silver Eagle (1300m), Newmarket Handicap and Sangster Stakes indicate it’s within reach. Drawn favourably.

VERDICT: Impossible to rule out the way she is racing.

5 – CEPHEUS 

He hasn’t got hot in three runs since his gallant second in The Big Dance on Melbourne Cup Day last year. Resumes here off a three-month break and latest trial was solid. Good record at the trip and wants good ground.

VERDICT: Capable on his day but recent form is plain.

6 – VILANA 

Made a statement last week when coming right into Stradbroke calculations with a thumping of his opposition in the Moreton Cup. His previous two runs in this race have resulted in midfield finishes. Last horse to win this on a seven-day back-up was Sincero in 2011.

VERDICT: Can win with a repeat of last week’s performance.

7 – HERE TO SHOCK 

Victorian galloper racing at the peak of his powers with two wins and a second in his past three starts. Booked his place here with victory in the BRC Sprint when holding on by the narrowest of margins. Excellent record at 1400m and loves good tracks.

VERDICT: Had a few goes at Group 1 level and come up short but never gone better.

8 – NUGGET 

Finished fourth in the Doncaster two starts back then last time out he never saw daylight when finishing 3-1/4 lengths behind the winner in the Scone Cup. His form is littered with strong performances at the highest level in Sydney and Melbourne. Hasn’t won over this trip but placed in three of five 1400m starts.

VERDICT: Has serious form credentials for this.

9 – THE INEVITABLE 

Tasmanian galloper that is more than capable on his day. Resumed in the BRC Sprint and found the line as well as anything in the race, coming from last to finish on the placegetters heels. He gets in best at the weights out of that race and is a proven big race performer. Loves the trip and drawn well.

VERDICT: Ticks plenty of boxes and must be respected.

10 – AMENABLE 

Comes here in good form with three seconds in four runs this campaign, his only failure was in the George Ryder Stakes. Stiff last time out when held up at a vital stage in the Luskin Star at Scone. Two back he was beaten narrowly in the All Aged Stakes so well in here at the weights. Mid draw to overcome.

VERDICT: He shapes as one of the strongest form and weight chances.

11 – PRINCE OF BOOM 

Improved effort second-up when beaten just over a length in the BRC Sprint. Drawn to advantage and will race up on the speed. Big query is his record at 1400m, four starts for one third placing, and that was last time over 1350m.

VERDICT: The distance will find him out at this level.

12 – OSIPENKO 

Returned from a spell in the Kingsford Smith Cup and failed to make an impact, always rearward and beaten almost seven lengths, albeit in the worst part of the track. Strips fitter here and is a proven Group 1 weight-for-age performer with a solid second-up record.

VERDICT: Could make a case for him at his best but he was ordinary first-up.

13 – MIGHTY ULYSSES 

Won like a real prospect in the Brisbane Quality in his first Queensland start over a mile then not disgraced when fourth in the Hollindale at weight-for-age. Freshened up for this and has a tricky barrier to overcome.

VERDICT: If there’s to be a surprise, this might be the horse.

14 – SEMANA 

Had form around all the best mares’ during the Sydney autumn, beating Olentia in the Triscay then chasing home Zougotcha and Atishu in the Coolmore Classic and Queen of The Turf. Freshened and targeted at this but her chances took a blow when drawing one in from the outside.

VERDICT: Form says she can win but barrier makes it harder.

15 – DREAM HOUR 

Won the Golden Ticket race to book his place back in December. His form since in three runs have been consistent but in much lower grade than a race like this. This is his preferred trip, he wants good ground and drawn to advantage.

VERDICT: Faces a task that’s beyond him.

16 – STEPARTY 

He wasn’t totally at home on the shifty surface in the Fred Best but did make up ground right to the line. Has Victorian form references around the likes of Southport Tycoon, Griff, Veight and Brave Mead and he’s drawn to get all the favours. Well weighted with excellent 1400m figures.

VERDICT: Genuine lightweight chance.

17 – STEFI MAGNETICA 

Produced an eye-catching performance when fifth in the worst part of the track in the Doomben 10,000 then again in the less favourable ground when third in the Fred Best Classic. Set to peak here, proven at Group 1 level over this trip but has to overcome a wide draw.

VERDICT: Solid form credentials but will need some luck from the gate.

18 – ROLL ON HIGH 

Booked her place in the field when producing a barnstorming finish, in the best part of the track, to claim the Fred Best Classic. Lightly-raced filly that has won three of her five 1400m starts and she’s most effective on good tracks.

VERDICT: Think the track flattered her last start.

**** EMERGENCIES ****

19 – FREEDOM RALLY 

Was the best closer in the BRC Sprint then ran better than expected when a commendable fourth in his first Group 1 weight-for-age start in the Kingsford Smith Cup. Drops from 59 to 51.5kg here, likely to make his own luck on the speed and is proven up to the mile.

VERDICT: Genuine lightweight chance.

20 – YELLOW BRICK 

Finished behind the placegetters when having every chance two back in the BRC Sprint then last start relished the drop in class when scoring with the big weight of 59.5kg. On the back-up and had the misfortune of drawing the outside alley.

VERDICT: This task is beyond him.

21 – STRAIT ACER 

Been racing consistently without winning this preparation, the latest a midfield finish in the BRC Sprint. Last spring he placed in the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and finished fourth in the Golden Eagle.

VERDICT: Not going well enough at the moment.

22 – AUREUS ANGEL 

Smart mare that scored a surprise win two starts back in the Listed Bright Shadow Stakes then last time she was down the track in the Helen Coughlan.

VERDICT: Bitten off more than she can chew here.

23 – CIFRADO 

He’s a fairly consistent performer that two starts ago was second in the Gold Coast Guineas before struggling last time out in the Fred Best Classic.

VERDICT: This is too rich for him.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

TIPS
1st – NUGGET (No. 8)
2nd – THE INEVITABLE (No. 9)
3rd – AMENABLE (No. 10)
4th – STEFI MAGNETICA (No. 17)

Originally published as Stradbroke Handicap runner-by runner analysis and tips

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Original URL: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/horse-racing/qld-racing/stradbroke-handicap-runnerby-runner-analysis-and-tips/news-story/5136f7b4e0052811becc6b07276feb0b