Saturday Best with Nic Ashman and Ron Dufficy

TAB BIG BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s Nic Ashman and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy dissect Saturday’s Rosehill meeting.

Photographs: Simon Bullard. Race 2 ALL TOO HARD @ VINERY HANDICAP (3YO&UP BM85) - 1400m. Winner 'God's In Him' ridden by Sam Clipperton.

THE Daily Telegraph’s Nic Ashman and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy dissect Saturday’s Rosehill meeting.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS

R1: KIWI HCP (2400m)

Dufficy: Jiayuguan’s win at Randwick on Melbourne Cup day was big but the track was wet and her record on the dry is nowhere near as good. That’s the question mark for her. Nothing went right for Four Carat on the same day at Flemington but his previous win at Caulfield was good. I’m expecting Danjeu to improve with the 2400m run under his belt.

Ashman: With the scratching of Zayam on Friday, Zatopaz is left as the speed. I’m with you Duff — Four Carat’s last run was totally inconclusive and his form prior was good. With J-Mac aboard from a gate where Four Carat will drop his head almost immediately, I expect him to be hard to beat.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Jiayuguan $5-$3.20 ($300 @ $5, $1,100 @ $4.60, $300 @ $4.40)

R4: ROSS CRIBB HIGHWAY HCP (1100m)

Dufficy: There’s two promising horses here in the form of Ocean Grand and Bitburg. Ocean Grand’s maiden win at Canterbury was that of a horse loaded with potential and the $7 on offer is a great price. I’ll be saving on Bitburg as he looks the other horse with big upside.

Ashman: I’m with Bitburg because of the draw. I am expecting the rail to be the place to be on Saturday and this bloke has drawn inside of Ocean Grand, who I’m happy to risk first-up.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Noble Joey $5-$4.60 ($1,000 @ $5, $500 @ $4.80)

LISTEN TO THE SUPERRACING ROSEHILL PREVIEW

R6: SCHWEPPES HCP (1400m)

Dufficy: I couldn’t believe they bet $5 God’s In Him earlier in the week. He’s the class horse coming off a very good Group 2 performance. He’s also big and strong and should cope with the big weight. For me, it’s between him and Medcaut but I do give Eloping a chance of improving back on to a dry surface.

Ashman: I reckon this is a two-horse race between God’s In Him and Medcaut. Both are class horses with figures that are simply better than these. God’s In Him probably carries some residual fitness so I’m with him but Medcaut bolted in first-up last campaign over this track and distance.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: God’s In Him $3.80-$3.40 ($500 @ $3.80, $400 @ $3.60, $500 @ $3.40)

R7: THOROUGHBRED BREEDERS NSW (1400m)

Dufficy: I’m very, very keen on Festivity here, Nic. I think she can get to the front easily and she was just a little flat second-up over the 1100m. Out to the 1400m here will really suit as she has won over 1550m. Maybe you can tell us more about her trackwork? The danger for me is Hetty Heights and I did like the trial of Magic Of Dreams at Cessnock recently.

Ashman: Festivity worked super on Tuesday, Duff, and goes on top clearly for me, too. The wide gate looks bad on paper but the reality is she has the natural speed to cross and lead. She pings up to 1400m nicely off the two 1100m runs, as you mentioned, and Koby Jennings’s claim looks a smart one.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Magic Of Dreams $12-$9 ($300 @ $12), Without A Shadow $23-$15 ($400 e/w @ $17/$5), La Speciale $7 unchanged ($500 e/w @ $7/$2.50)

R8: WALLER FAREWELLS JIMMY HCP (1100m)

Dufficy: There are a few query horses here and one of them is Sports Edition, who was second to Almalad on debut before being unplaced in the J.J. Atkins a couple of years back. He’s had 532 days off but his two trials have been good and he’s a talented galloper. Huka Eagle is another horse I’m very wary of. Ex-Kiwi that has a second placing behind Volkstok’n’barrell to his name — won a recent Cessnock trial by six lengths. I think Le Cordon Bleu looks ready to run a big race fresh. Also, Rule The River was fat and sweaty first-up — she needs to take the next step but there’s enough there to suggest improvement will come.

Ashman: Le Cordon Bleu is a horse that’s always promised a lot and I think he’s ready to deliver this campaign. Even if he doesn’t, his fresh record is superb and his trial was good the other day. Goes on top for me but I agree, there are plenty of question marks on runners here.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sports Edition $9.50-$5 ($200 @ $9.50, $200 @ $8.50, $300 @ $6)

R9: ATC FAREWELLS JIM CASSIDY (1500m)

Dufficy: Gee, I thought Caped Crusader would be shorter, Nic. I can’t see many horses vying for the lead here and it takes a sharp horse to beat That’s A Good Idea in a barrier trial. Dangers are Heavens Above and Cauthen’s Power but surely Caped Crusader finds the lead and proves hard to run down.

Ashman: Exactly what I thought Duff but I reckon there might be one concern. If the day plays in favour of the leaders, which we’re sort of expecting with the rail out — come the last race they might all be looking for the front and that might impact on his chances.

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BET

Race 6, No. 1: GOD’S IN HIM

NEXT BEST

Race 7, No. 3: FESTIVITY

VALUE BET

Race 4, No. 1: OCEAN GRAND

Race 9, No. 4: CAPED CRUSADER

TAB MARKET MOVERS

Rosehill

Race 2: Jericho $5.50-$3.20 ($750 @ $5, $400 @ $5, $1,500 @ $4.60), Yankee Rose $4.60-$4.80-$4.40 ($1,000 @ $4.60).

Race 3: Feast for Eyes $7.50-$6 ($615 @ $7.50, $400 @ $7), We’re Sure $4.60-$3.80 ($750 @ $4.60, $350 @ $4.20, $300 @ $4).

Ballarat

Race 2: Sari $18-$14 ($500 @ $18, $300 @ $17).

Race 6: Leica Day $8.50-$6.50 ($520 @ $8.50, $300 @ $8.50, $435 @ $8).

Race 7: Nordic Empire $9.50-$8 ($920 x $1,000 @ $9.50/$3.06, $250 e/w @ $8.50/$2.11), Illustrious Lad $8-$6 ($472 @ $8, $600 @ $6.50, $600 @ $5.50), Wild Rain $3.40-$2.80 ($1,650 @ $3.40, $800 @ $2.90).

Race 8: Akzar $9-$8.50 ($3,000 x $1,000 @ $9/$3), Sysmo $14-$8.50 ($225 @ $12, $300 @ $10).