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Racewatch: Shayne O’Cass’s tips and race-by-race analysis for Royal Randwick on Saturday

Form expert Shayne O’Cass analyses Saturday’s 10-race card at Royal Randwick, where he’s Amenable to a bet in one of the day’s big features.

Shayne O’Cass
4 min read
September 19, 2024 - 12:54PM
Bella Nipotina locked in for The Everest

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass provides his race-by-race tips and analysis for Royal Randwick on Saturday.

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• EXPERT TIPS: Get professional selections from Racenet’s tipsters

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RACE 1: MIDWAY BENCHMARK 72 (1600m)

EL CASTELLO (11) could end up in a Spring Champion Stakes and even a Derby of some description. He is in the right stable for it. Saturday’s mission is ‘only’ a Midway and while it is hardly a slam-dunk, given he is a lightly-raced three-year-old, he does have all the proverbial upside. Same goes for the Kerry Parker-trained FLYING BANDIT (7) who looked very much like a horse crying out for a Randwick Mile when he flashed home late first-up over 1500m. STATE OF AMERICA (5) is Midway standard.

BET: El Castello to win, exacta 11 to beat 7.

• From the bush to The Everest: Bjorn Baker duo’s remarkable climb

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RACE 2: CLASS 3 HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1000m)

Here’s a must-see Highway if only for the clash between ‘Kosciusko KREON (6)’ and the unbeaten SHE’S EXOTIC (5), who once ran 56.52 seconds when she won the John Clift 1000m at home at Tamworth. Make no mistake, Kreon’s no slouch either, if they break 57 on Saturday, he’ll be there at the end himself. Me? Well, I’ll stick my neck out and say Kreon is the better horse of the two. May the best one win. As for the ‘others’, PERENNIAL (2) and STING JET (4) have claims.

BET: Kreon to win, exacta 6 to beat 5.

• Ciaron Maher’s Bella Nipotina selected by TAB for The Everest

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RACE 3: BENCHMARK 88 (1600m)

JUNIPAL (3) is a nine-year-old son of Reset having his 49th start on the weekend and while he has been out of the winner’s stall for some time, he sent out some very encouraging signs indeed when a closing fourth (from last) behind Major Beel in a leader-biased race on a leader-biased track. Stablemate ST LAWRENCE (2) has a ticket to ride in Friday’s Cameron Handicap. SNOWMAN (7), the grandson of the mighty More Joyous, beat Riff Rocket (RIP) once and was inched out in a Callander-Presnell.

BET: Junipal to win.

• Harron’s big Everest hope ruled out for Spring

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RACE 4: BENCHMARK 78 (1400m)

MISS BUSSLINGER (16) is a 3YO filly taking on all-comers but she will have only 52kg and Andrew Gibbons on board. The Kris Lees-trained daughter of Saxon Warrior has one win (at Doomben) and no other placings from six starts BUT she was fourth in a Reisling and Baillieu and fifth in the Fernhill to Broadsiding. Trialled (well) since the Silver Shadow ‘failure’. SIR ARTIE (4)’s three starts this preparation can be summed up as ‘good, better, best’ and he may not be finished with winning yet. HOLLYWOOD HERO (1) was fantastic first-up.

BET: Miss Busslinger each-way.

• ‘A place I love’: Moreira open to full-time Australian move

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RACE 5: GROUP 3 KINGSTOWN TOWN STAKES (2000m)

CEOLWULF (11) was fantastic winning that Benchmark 100 at Rosehill second-up. No pace in the race, near impossible to make ground too, but James McDonald and trainer Joe Pride made sure to have him just that bit closer and let the turn of foot do the rest. He’s a good horse. No one could have missed ADELAIDE RIVER (8) in the Chelmsford. Just for what it is worth, I thought he was the run of the race given where he was compared to where Buckaroo was. Terrible draw, really terrible actually. Stablemate KALAPOUR (1) was heroic under the big weight first-up.

BET: Ceolwulf to win, quinella 8,11.

• Richard Callander: Why I’m now a Storm Boy believer for the Golden Rose

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RACE 6: GROUP 3 BILL RITCHIE HANDICAP (1400m)

AMENABLE (1) has the honour and distinction of being the highest rated horse in the 2024 Bill Ritchie. For a horse that has only won 2 from 14, he has a very, very impressive resume. The quality of races he runs in and the quality of opposition is unquestionably high. One more thing, he trialled like a bomb here 12-days ago. The mail was the gelded TOM KITTEN (4) was purring ahead of his Spring Preview return win; that was over a long way out. SCARLET OAK (14) is the market watch of the century.

BET: Amenable to win.

• Epsom weight not a Bridge too far for Celestial Legend

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RACE 7: GROUP 2 TEA ROSE STAKES (1400m)

Just for context, I have always been a LAZZURA (5) fan. I know (and understand) why everyone is talking up AUTUMN GLOW (6) but to Lazzura’s credit, she went: Kembla Maiden win on debut, Listed Scone win, spell, massive run first-up in the Furious. She could get the run of the race with Tommy Berry and barrier 3. Just in simple ‘betting’ terms. Lazzura is $2.80 the place against Autumn Glow $1.95 to win. It wouldn’t shock if SNOW IN MAY (10) beat them both.

BET: Lazzura each-way.

• Mitch Cohen’s Blackbook: Boom filly on song for next big test

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RACE 8: 7 STAKES (1600m)

I kept coming back to FANGIRL (6) just on her ‘numbers’. She is not in the Super Impose league as a Randwick Miler but she is as good as most others you could name. She was a beaten favourite in the Winx but, mathematically, outstanding. Had that lovely little spin-around in a 1000m heat here the other day. Talking of numbers, ZOUGOUTCHA (7) has won 4 from 9 at Randwick and 2 from 3 over the Mile there. Fangirl drew 9 by the way, Zougotcha – 3.

BET: Fangirl to win, exacta 6 to beat 7, Daily Double 1st Leg (6), 2nd Leg (3).

• Fangirl barrier ‘evens up’ 7 Stakes clash

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RACE 9: GROUP 2 THE SHORTS (1100m)

Look at the honour roll for The Shorts in the Everest era: Redzel, Pierata, Classique Legend, Eduardo, Nature Strip and, drum roll please, Private Eye. PRIVATE EYE (1) won in 2023 first-up, he is second-up this time around off an absolutely brilliant, typical Private Eye, fourth in the Concorde. MUMBAI MUSE (12) and I AM ME (6) may have had some favours in the Concorde but they are no fluke artists. Look at their barriers this weekend – 1 and 2!

BET: Private Eye to win.

• Baker’s big gamble on Everest start for Overpass

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RACE 10: BENCHMARK 88 (1200m)

Maybe ‘D-Day’ is a bit dramatic but you’d like to see MORAVIA (3) make a statement here, a win would suffice. How could he leave with any excuses dropping back to a Benchmark 88 from the Concorde where he ran a ‘great’ 9th of 12? Throw in James McDonald on his back and you see what I mean about no excuses. I tell you who did have excuses last start – BATTLETON (8)! He had excuses the start before that too. ATMOSPHERIC ROCK (14), DALAALAAT (5) are medal contenders.

BET: Moravia to win, quinella 3,8.

Originally published as Racewatch: Shayne O’Cass’s tips and race-by-race analysis for Royal Randwick on Saturday

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Original URL: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/horse-racing/nsw-racing/racewatch-shayne-ocasss-tips-and-racebyrace-analysis-for-royal-randwick-on-saturday/news-story/6005bb095dc417e73e6061e2790ffe8a