Race watch: Brad Davidson’s extended preview and tips for Rosehill Gardens

PODCAST: THE Daily Telegraph’s Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including speed maps and suggested bets for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

THE Daily Telegraph’s Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including speed maps and suggested bets for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

RACING PODCAST: FRIDAY FILL UP

ANALYSIS: SATURDAY BEST WITH RAY & DUFF

ROSEHILL GARDENS

Track: Soft 6. Rail: 3m out.

R1 (11.25am): PRO RATA ATC MEMBERSHIP ON SALE HCP (1400m)

OVERVIEW: Looks a lovely race for Hualalai who would have won last start if it wasn’t for the farcical early tempo. Hugh Bowman goes aboard and the only query is whether he settles with the blinkers on. I’ve got a lot of time for Heliosphere but he looks like a real ‘next time in’ horse for mine. He still doesn’t know what he is doing yet.

SPEED MAP: Expect Uncle Rodriguez, All Too Soon and Mad Pirate to be up there. Tempo looks even.

DID YOU KNOW: Only Sir Plush clocked a quicker last 600m split than Hualalai (34.760) at Rosehill on June 17.

BETTING STRATEGY: HUALALAI to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Hualalai $2.90-$2.60 ($500 @ $2.90, $600 @ $2.60, $300 @ $2.60)

R2 (12pm): TAB.COM.AU HCP (1500m)

OVERVIEW: I just can’t go past Just Dreaming. She looked gone her past two starts before lifting off the canvas to win. She sat second and had to drag the rest of the field up to the tearaway leader last start and still held off many of Saturday’s rivals. She is a winner and she should get a soft run on speed this time. Tim Clark goes aboard Insensata and she may have just peaked on the run last start. High Mist is knocking on the door, while Faraway Town isn’t out of it.

SPEED MAP: Lope De Lope and Just Dreaming the two on-speed runners. Speed looks average at best.

BETTING STRATEGY: JUST DREAMING to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Faraway Town $6.50-$4.80-$5 ($1,000 @ $6.50, $1,000 @ $5.50)

Just Dreaming, left, is racing in great form and will be hard to beat again.

R3 (12.35pm): MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS HCP (1900m)

OVERVIEW: He doesn’t map well but I’ll Fly Away has been working home nicely over the mile at Doomben and 1900m on a spacious track gives him his chance. I just don’t think Walk The Streets got through the wet ground at Canterbury last start. She is on trial at the 1900m but will get a lovely run on speed. Vandancer is the class mare of the race and she gets in OK after the claim of Brock Ryan. Domed is a promising filly on the up and the only knock is they came home very slow last start when she won at Canterbury.

SPEED MAP: Rustic Melody and Walk The Streets should be handy, with Vandancer just off them. Speed appears below average.

DID YOU KNOW: Dean Yendall has had four rides on I’ll Fly Away for two wins and a further two minor placings.

BETTING STRATEGY: I’LL FLY AWAY on top but no suggested bet here.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Domed $7.50-$5.50 ($399 @ $7.50, $1,000 @ $6, $250 @ $6, $200 @ $6)

R4 (1.10pm): TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1800m)

OVERVIEW: The Highways are always open and this is no different. Last Try Wins interests me at odds and he is proven on wet ground and up to 2000m. He has form around city horses and comes back to Class 3 grade. Big Ben The Clock looks a stayer on the rise but the soft track is a query for him. Barbass, O’Lordy and Kingsbridge all have each-way claims, while Thunder Road should relish the step up in trip and can run a race at odds.

SPEED MAP: They should roll along here with Mister Marmalade, Barbass, Call The Captain and potentially O’Lordy pushing forward.

DID YOU KNOW: Kingsbridge defeated Big Ben The Clock last start at Dubbo but switch the runs they had and the result would have been different.

BETTING STRATEGY: LAST TRY WINS to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Last Try Wins $9-$8 ($1,050 @ $9)

R5 (1.45pm): ATC WINTER CUP (2400m)

OVERVIEW: Hard to go past Gallic Chieftain and he gets 7.5kg off Destiny’s Kiss and that could prove telling. He has won up to 2250m and gets through wet ground fine. Destiny’s Kiss is absolutely flying but the 61kg is the big leveller. He is not a big horse but surprisingly carries weight well. Araldo Junior caught the eye last start over 2000m and looks the other main chance.

SPEED MAP: Iggi Pop looks your leader with potentially Araldo Junior going forward. Speed only looks fair.

DID YOU KNOW: Glyn Schofield has ridden Soviet Courage five times for fours with three of those coming over 2400m.

BETTING STRATEGY: GALLIC CHIEFTAIN to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Gallic Chieftain $2.70-$2.50 ($500 @ $2.70, $300 @ $2.70), Black Tomahawk $11-$9.50 ($400 @ $11, $200 @ $11)

R6 (2.25pm): TAB HCP (1200m)

OVERVIEW: Memes is airborne and the only knock is she won’t get an easy lead this time. Magic Alibi interests me at odds. She was trapped three-deep without cover first-up on an unsuitable wet track and she ran pretty well all considering. The firmer the better for her. Romney’s Choice looked to have plenty to offer when she fell on the turn last start, while Mariquita has trialled really well twice now and can run on from the back.

SPEED MAP: Good speed with Memes, Fickle Folly, Don’tbabylon and Nudierudie all on-pace runners. Upscale and Magic Alibi can tuck in midfield.

DID YOU KNOW: Hugh Bowman rode both Upscale and Pioneering last start but rides Upscale here.

BETTING STRATEGY: Back MARIQUITA to place.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Memes $4.60-$4.40 ($1,000 @ $4.60)

R7 (3.05pm): CIVIC STAKES (1350m)

OVERVIEW: I love the way Gold Symphony is going this winter and the booking of Hugh Bowman is a big plus. He was only three lengths away in a Stradbroke and he outsprinted Sir Bacchus prior to that. Sir Bacchus put the writing on the wall with a luckless second to Royal Tudor last start and the only concern is he gets back in a potentially slow run race. Invincible Knight was huge with the 61kg and will sprout wings late in this tougher race, while Centre Pivot has been trialling the house down and was beaten less than two lengths first-up in a Villiers last campaign. Telopea next best.

SPEED MAP: The Monstar and Girl Sunday should take it up with potentially Zin Zan Eddie and maybe Gold Symphony pushing forward. Speed looks only fair.

DID YOU KNOW: Gold Symphony has won three from six starts on soft tracks and been placed another two times.

BETTING STRATEGY: GOLD SYMPHONY to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Gold Symphony $11-$7 ($222 @ $11, $500 @ $9.50, $700 @ $7.50), Sir Bacchus $4.20-$3.90 ($630 @ $4.20, $300 @ $4.20), Girl Sunday $15-$11 ($350 @ $12)

Gold Symphony, left, has an excellent record on soft tracks.

R8 (3.45pm): SCHWEPPES HCP (1100m)

OVERVIEW: I thought this was a race in two between arrogant first-up winner Sir Plush and first-up specialist Princefamous. The former clocked some serious time when winning first-up and the only query is whether he bounces off that performance as he has done second-up in the past. Princefamous’ chances all depend on the track. If it’s getting close to a Soft 5-Good 4 he will run exceptionally well, if it’s a Soft 6 he may struggle a touch. Highly Geared has had no luck her past couple in Brisbane and is an underrated mare that should also be thrown in the quaddie. Top Striker has trialled well and is also underrated.

SPEED MAP: Good speed with Princefamous, I Am Gypsy, Top Striker, Oxford Poet and Highly Geared pushing on. Sir Plush gets that lovely run behind them.

DID YOU KNOW: Sir Plush clocked the quickest last 600m split of the day (34.44s) at Rosehill on June 17.

BETTING STRATEGY: SIR PLUSH to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sir Plush $2.80-$2.40-$2.20 ($500 @ $2.80, $622 @ $2.70, $650 @ $2.50, $5,000 @ $2.50, $500 @ $2.40, $1,000 @ $2.30, $1,000 @ $2.20), Calanda $6.50-$7- $6, King Darci $9.50-$8.50-$11 ($500 e/w @ $9.50/$2.83)

R9 (4.25pm): #THERACES HCP (1500m)

OVERVIEW: I’ve got to stick with Obsidian. I was on him first-up at $51 and he looked to have the race shot to bits at the 300m before knocking up late. He is probably looking for longer now but his second-up record is quite good. Carzoff is the horse with most upside but he goes 1800m back to 1500m and that’s the query. Reneged is flying and his win at Canterbury last start was very good. Magical Stance, Pick Me Up and Kingsguard also have claims, while Lay Down The Law was first-up for two months last start and is also an improver at odds.

SPEED MAP: Kingsguard looks your leader with Magical Stance likely to push forward as well. Harvard Graduate and King Viv won’t be far away. Speed looks even.

DID YOU KNOW: Reneged clocked the second quickest last 200m split of the day at Canterbury on June 14 despite sitting three-wide without cover throughout and racing over 1550m.

BETTING STRATEGY: Small play OBSIDIAN win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Carzoff $2.90-$3 ($350 @ $3, $300 @ $3, $300 @ $2.90), Dream Lane $21-$17-$18 ($1,000 @ $21)

TURF TALK

Ray Thomas and Brad davidson discuss their best bets for the weekend.

BD: I see we are going head-to-head with our best bets this weekend.

RT: Well at least we’re both not weighing down the same horse like a fortnight ago with Tucanchoo. Poor bugger just couldn’t carry the both of us.

BD: I’ll let you reveal your best first.

RT: My best bet is Sir Bacchus in the Civic Stakes, mate. I know he is coming back a fraction in trip but it’s a month between runs now, he gets in well at the weights, loves soft going and excels on his home track, Rosehill. Have I talked you into him?

BD: You make a good case and to be fair it’s the only horse I’m worried about. I’ve backed Gold Symphony at $8, though, and he beat home Sir Bacchus fair and square two back at Scone. He then was beaten just three lengths in the Stradbroke and gets his preferred soft track on Saturday.

RT: How do you see the Winter Cup? I would love to see old Destiny’s Kiss win but 61kg is a big leveller. I’m with Montauk at the odds, although I concede 2400m is a risk.

BD: I think the Winter Cup will be going to DK Weir. I think Destiny’s Kiss is flying but I can’t go past Gallic Chieftain. He looks pretty hard to beat. Now, my mail is you found a very good roughie in the TAB Highway?

RT: One of the most open Highways in recent weeks and for that reason I have gone wide with Thunder Road ($21). The big field will generate a genuine tempo, which this horse needs. He enjoys rain-affected going and will carry just 51kg after the claim. Does that make any sense?

BD: Plenty of sense. I’ve got Last Try Wins on top but Thunder Road is in my top three and I agree with you he is very generously priced at $21. He should run very well.

RT: I wasn’t brave enough to tip All Too Soon in the first — I’ve gone with the racefit Hualalai — but I will definitely be having something on the filly. Trials have been super.

BD: I think it’s Hualalai’s race to lose and he would have won last start if it wasn’t for a farcical early tempo. He looks hard to beat.