Matt Williams and Ben Dorries column — ’Got eight horses ahead of him’: Big knock on Vilana in Stradbroke Handicap

Matty and Benny chat about some syndicators’ mayonnaise, who’s better out of Chris Waller and Ciaron Maher, and they look ahead to Saturday’s Stradbroke Handicap, JJ Atkins and the Q22.

Every Thursday, News Corp Australia’s national racing editor Matt Williams and senior racing writer Ben Dorries chat all things horse racing.

Matty (left) and Benny.

MW: Benny, you’ve mentioned the importance of syndicators getting battlers involved in racehorse ownership, but some are significantly inflating their costs. The amount of times I’ve seen $30,000 or $40,000 yearlings being on-sold for as much as $100,000 is staggering. It should be mandatory for syndicators to reveal in their advertising how much they paid for the horse as a yearling. In one case from dozens of examples, there’s a filly on the market who was bought for $60,000, but 10 per cent shares are being sold for $11,000 — valuing it at $110,000 (after some extra costs). Of course there are some additional costs after purchase, however, there’s plenty of mayo being added around the place. Prospective owners should do their homework to ensure they’re not getting dudded.

* ‘Just back speaking’: Tip that Crashed a friendship

BD: No doubt, but I guess it’s like anything – if you’re going to purchase a second hand car, you do your due diligence and don’t go to Dodgy Brothers Inc. Most syndication companies are terrific and, to be honest, it’s the only way many rank and file Aussies can now afford horse ownership. Whether you have 0.5 per cent or 50 per cent of a horse, you still get an enormous thrill when it wins.

MW: This is like asking who your favourite child is, but who’s a better trainer right now out of Chris Waller and Ciaron Maher? Their stats this season are remarkably similar with Waller’s horses winning $48.7m prizemoney from 1967 runners, and Maher’s horses winning $47.5m from 1883 runners. Maher’s winning strike rate is better overall this season (15.8 per cent vs 12.9 per cent) but I’d still give Waller the points by a whisker. Maher, 43, is still on an upward spiral, but Waller, 50, has been dominant for so long, especially at Group 1 level, so he gets my vote.

* ‘Definitely overdue’: Yendall ready to Steparty in Stradbroke

Leading trainers Chris Waller (left) and Ciaron Maher.

BD: I’m happy to get splinters in my bum here. All I’ll say is some of Ciaron Maher’s results lately prove he’s a rolled gold freak trainer. There’s some chance when he walks off into the sunset in a few decades, he could be remembered as one of the most remarkable trainers the country has ever seen. Tony Gollan was the most stunned man at Eagle Farm when $101 bolter Socks Nation won the Group 1 Queensland Oaks for his good mate Maher. His horses have been stabled at Gollan’s this winter and Queensland’s leading trainer simply couldn’t believe Socks Nation got the chocolates. Don’t forget, Maher’s Group 1 JJ Atkins winner last year, King Colorado, was $101 or better only a few days out from the race. I’m starting to think a solid punting formula could be to have a few shekels each way on anything Maher trains over $31 in the market.

It's a question posed in this column: https://t.co/aEFKyIXT5u

So, let's hear from the punters.

Who's a better trainer "right now"? 👇

— Racenet (@RacenetTweets) June 12, 2024

* ‘No doubt Zac will make it’: Son of a gun to kick Group 1 goal in Stradbroke

MW: Onto the big one. The Stradbroke. I’m shocked at how much the market has come for Vilana. He was impressive last week, but I’ve got eight horses ahead of him in my pecking order. My queries are he loses J-Mac, he’s run 8th and 10th in the past two Stradbrokes, his 1400m form is only average, it’s doubtful he can improve enough to win a race of this calibre seven days later, and he’s finished no closer than sixth in five attempts at Group 1 level. The three Group 1-winning mares are all big chances, but after the barrier draw I’m leaning to Benedetta. She’s untried at 1400m but she’s drawn to get a suck run and can let down in the straight with 54kg. Magic Time and Bella Nipotina will run well, but the barrier and top weight makes it tough for Bella. Nugget ($19), who was a total forget last start and a close-up fourth in the Doncaster before that, and The Inevitable ($19) are my two roughies.

* Stradbroke Handicap tips, runner-by-runner analysis

Benedetta wins The Goodwood. Picture: Makoto Kankeko

BD: It’s not a vintage Stradbroke, but it will be a strong betting race because there are plenty of chances. It’s harder to pick than a broken nose. There’s no way I could have Vilana at the price on offer. Punters often gravitate to what they’ve seen most recently, and what’s fresh in their minds. Vilana has had two previous cracks at the Straddy and hasn’t been near them and yes, this is arguably a weaker Stradbroke, but I can’t get my head around him being $5 favourite. I’m happy to be with Gollan to win his first Stradbroke with Antino. The wide barrier isn’t awful as he’ll get plenty of clear air, and you’re getting a better price now. Antino has a massive motor and can sustain a long run. I think he’s a 1600m horse, but that’s probably what you need to win a Stradbroke most years. I’m giving good chances to The Inevitable (as old as the hills, but big run in BRC Sprint) and Stefi Magnetica (X-factor filly with light weight).

* Firm deck in colt’s sweet spot as potential buyers circle

MW: Broadsiding looks a put in, take out job in the JJ Atkins. I can’t believe they put up $1.90 after the field was released. We won’t see that price again. If there’s an upset it might be from Chris Waller’s The Autumn Sun colt, Mr Artemisia. He was a massive run last start and will come into his own over 1600m. Jason Collett, who won this last year on King Colorado, rides him. The Autumn Sun won the JJ Atkins back in 2018.

Broadsiding wins the Sires’ Produce. Picture: Grant Peters — Trackside Photography.

BD: They should present James Cummings and J-Mac with the JJ Atkins trophy now. A couple of Queenslanders can run into the placings, Zouna and Beau Dazzler (at huge odds). I felt sick for Adin Thompson losing the Zouna steer, which would have been his first Group 1 ride, to Mark Zahra. But Adin handled it with class, and that will stand him in good stead in the long run.

* Runner-by runner analysis, tips: JJ Atkins

MW: I’ve got a scoop in the Q22. I’m not tipping Kovalica. I still love him, but as a betting proposition I’m done. I hope he wins, but he can go around without me on Saturday. Has he forgotten how to win? I’m not sure, but I can’t keep putting him ahead of food for my two kids. If you want an excuse out of the Doomben Cup, he covered 18m (about 7½ lengths) more than the winner, Bois D’Argent, and was only beaten 2¾ lengths. It was a weird race on a weird day when a lot of horses ran below expectations. Eagle Farm and 2200m will suit him better.

BD: You know what’ll happen now, don’t you? But if Kovalica wins, I’ll give it away. He’s well and truly in my sack file. Annabel Neasham has a proper horse on her hands with Fawkner Park and I expect him to be winning. He was fabulous running on from the back in the Doomben Cup and if he continues on an upwards trajectory, he can make a serious impact in the spring.

C'est fantastique!

The grey Bois D'argent leads all the way to win a thrilling G1 Doomben Cup for @ANeashamRacing and @blake_shinn!@BrisRacingClubpic.twitter.com/9yN7M4nB4V

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 25, 2024

Originally published as Matt Williams and Ben Dorries column — ’Got eight horses ahead of him’: Big knock on Vilana in Stradbroke Handicap