Brad Waters’ Early Oil for Flemington racing on Saturday: $15 value bet
An exciting import can again get the job done for punters while a last-start Flemington winner could make it two in a row when the $15 chance steps out at headquarters on Saturday.
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Racenet and Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Flemington meeting.
BEST BET
BERKSHIRE BREEZE (Race 4, No. 4)
Berkshire Breeze will only be improved for his dominant second-up win at Cranbourne. Expecting him to continue his improvement at Flemington.
VALUE BET
MILFORD (Race 6, No. 1)
Milford produced a big effort to score at Flemington second-up and will be fitter again. He’ll be harder to beat over 2000m.
EARLY QUADDIE
4, 5, 10, 12 / 1, 2, 3, 11 / 3, 4, 8, 11 / 1, 2, 5, 15
$100 flexi for 39 per cent
BIG6
3, 4, 8, 11 / 1, 2, 5, 15 / 1, 2, 3, 12 / 1, 6, 7 / 3, 6, 10, 20 / 7, 11, 17
$100 flexi for 4.3 percent
QUADDIE
Race 7: 1, 2, 3, 12
Race 8: 1, 6, 7
Race 9: 3, 6, 10, 20
Race 10: 7, 11, 17
$100 flexi for 69 per cent
RACE 1: 11:50AM DEXION VICTORIA HANDICAP (1100m)
Tricky 2YO race to start the day but WONDER BOY (7) could go well if her repeats his two promising jumpouts at Mornington. SUPERNIMA (3) impressed with his game win on debut at Pakenham and will be better for the experience. ANTALIAN (11) showed plenty of speed in her recent jumpouts and could show up on debut. JENNI’S MEADOW (2) closed well at Sandown first-up and will be fitter.
SUGGESTED BET: Small win bet Wonder Boy.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Markdel $9 – $6.50.
RACE 2: 12:25PM RDA HORSHAM JAN CROSER PLATE (1400m)
APACHE SONG (12) is racing well in easier company but could have the perfect run and she’ll be hard to run down with only 54kg. BRAZEN LADY (10) was OK over 1600m at Sandown but will be better suited back to 1400m here. FANCIFY (4) won well when leading throughout and will be in this for a long way. SOARING EAGLE (5) should have a soft run from barrier two and can show up first-up.
SUGGESTED BET: Apache Song each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Fairway Star $13 – $8.
RACE 3: 1:00PM RDAV MARY LONGDEN MILE (1600m)
RISE AT DAWN (1) will be fresh for this contest and will enjoy dropping back from Group class here. His jumpouts indicate he’s in good order for his return. CRAIG (11) was an impressive winner at Bendigo at local debut and will be fitter. THE SHAPER (3) is racing in solid form and should again be thereabouts from the inside draw. LE ZEBRA (2) did enough first-up to suggest he can improve here.
SUGGESTED BET: Rise At Dawn to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Craig $4.80 – $4.20.
RACE 4: 1:35PM RDAV SALLY FRANCIS PLATE (2520m)
Imported stayer BERKSHIRE BREEZE (4) has settled in well to Australian racing and should thrive over the longer trip following his easy win at Cranbourne. QUANTUM CAT (3) has gone well at his last two runs and should have every chance. THE GENIUS (11) will be fitter for three runs in and ran on solidly at Sandown last time. QUEEN AIR (8) was scratched from Caulfield last week and this trip looks suitable now.
SUGGESTED BET: Berkshire Breeze to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Mirzann $6 – $3.90.
RACE 5: 2:10PM RDA MOORABBIN JANE BAKER PLATE (2000m)
STEEL RUN (5) is a promising stayer in the making, going down narrowly over this trip at Caulfield after a strong debut win two runs back. He’ll be improved. LADY IN PINK (2) looks ready for this trip after an excellent win at Sandown last time out. AZTEC STATE (5) is racing consistently in this distance range and must be respected again. HERRLICH (15) broke his maiden over a longer trip at Geelong and could measure up here.
SUGGESTED BET: Steel Run to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Zambezi Khan $8.50 – $7.50.
RACE 6: 2:45PM RDA DAYLESFORD LESLEY HEWITT TROPHY (2000m)
Surprised to see MILFORD (1) at such big odds after his excellent win on this track second-up. There’s no reason he won’t be around the mark again with added fitness. MIDNIGHT BLUE (3) enjoyed a decent speed to score at Caulfield and will be fitter. SILENT SURRENTE (12) drops back from stakes class for this and she likes this trip. VIRTUOUS CIRCLE (2) ran on soundly second-up and could continue to improve.
SUGGESTED BET: Milford each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Silent Surrente $5.50 – $4.
RACE 7: 3:20PM TAB/ATA TRAINERS’ TRUST HANDICAP (1100m)
STEEL CITY (1) is a classy filly that didn’t fire in the spring but has had another good spell and has looked good at the jumpouts leading up to this. NAMESAKE (2) has a solid first-up record and he will find this much easier than his spring assignments. LE PARRAIS (7) impressed with his second-up win at Bendigo and should go well again. CARBONADOS (6) showed ability last time in and has trialled well.
SUGGESTED BET: Steel City to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Le Parrain $12 – $8.
RACE 8: 4:00PM RDA PAKENHAM TROPHY (1400m)
HE’S OUR BONNEVAL (3) can bounce back to winning ways back at Flemington after another excellent effort behind an in-form galloper at Caulfield last start. RHEINBERG (6) was solid again at Sandown and races best over this distance. TALBRAGAR (10) ran well from a wide gate at Sandown and has a much softer draw this time. ELOUYOU (20) tried hard behind a promising type at Sandown and will be fitter.
SUGGESTED BET: He’s Our Bonneval each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Talbragar $6 – $4.80.
RACE 9: 4:34PM RDA OAKLANDS TROPHY (1200m)
Big field to finish Saturday’s meeting but BRITISH COLUMBIA (7) could produce a minor upset in the last. He has produced good fresh performances in the past and drawing out wide but suit. LITTLE MISS KUBI (11) ran on hard to score at Sandown and could handle this harder test. LOSESOMEWINMORE (17) is lightly-raced and has the upside to measure up here. RED HOT NICC (3) has the pace to be in this for a long way.
SUGGESTED BET: British Columbia each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Losesomewinmore $4.80 – $3.40.
Originally published as Brad Waters’ Early Oil for Flemington racing on Saturday: $15 value bet
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