Best bets and inside mail for Warwick Farm and Muswellbrook on Monday 7 October 2024

Well credentialed import Aristonous looks ready and able to peak on Monday and go one better than his most second at Warwick Farm over a similar distance.

French import Aristonous will be hard to beat at Warwick Farm on Monday: Pic: Getty images

Public holiday racing heads to Warwick Farm on Monday for an eight race card while seven events are also slated for Muswellbrook.

The Daily Telegraph’s Shayne O’Cass has run his eye over both programs and identified his best bets and value selections.

FIELDS AND FORM WARWICK FARM MONDAY

WARWICK FARM

BEST BET

Race 3 No. 1: Aristonous

Put the writing on the wall with his last start (closing) second at this track and distance 12-days ago.

NEXT BEST

Race 5 No. 3: True To Form

French import who is '112’ in his three Australian starts. On-pace and genuine.

VALUE

Race 2 No. 8: Rantan

No luck at all first-up here back on September 4. Loaded with talent.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 3,9

Race 6: 2,3,5,10

Race 7: 1,2,3

Race 8: 8,11,12

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Star apprentice Benjamin Osmond could collect the Jockeys Challenge on Monday.

RACE 1

Golden Smile is a Kris Lees trained import who was third at Windsor over the mile. His first Australian start was in a 1400m Newcastle Maiden on Cup Day. Long way back, ran on well on a bit of an on-pace day; 1600m this time. Indigo Star was a $1.3m Easter Yearling purchase and just could not be in a more suitable race than this one. Blinkers off this time. Black Bugatti bumped into a rampaging Duvana at Goulburn last start. Lindermann’s half-brother Hammett wants a mile.

Bet: Golden Smile to win, quinella 1,4

RACE 2

Rantan had a few excuses when last of the seven here first-up in a very strong midweek race as it happens. In fact, the only time she wasn’t on the wrong end of the proverbial was her debut at Newcastle where she ran on by them like they were statues. Tartaglia has a touch of quality about him. His only win so far was at this same track and distance. Amelita has barrier 3, James McDonald and won like Winx in the Winx colours first-up.

Bet: Rantan each-way

RACE 3

Ariostonous put the writing on the wall, big time, when he finished a closing second over this track and a similar distance third-up 12-days ago. He looks very, very well weighted now with the 3 kgs claim for Benjamin Osmond. Former Matt Cumani galloper and SAJC Derby fifth placegetter Bengal Boy ran way above his $19 SP when third on the Kensington track over 1800m at his first run for Kris Lees. Won a 2400m Galilee Final as well, take note.

Bet: Aristonous to win, exacta 1 to beat 2

RACE 4

Poppin’ Champagne has got some pretty deep form, she was beaten under four lengths in a Group 3 at Flemington on Australian Cup Day. Fast forward a bit and she was third in the Morphettville Guineas. She’s been fantastic in her three NSW runs. Mountain Top finished runner-up last start in a mile 78 beating Poppin’ Champagne home but not by much. Noises is a lightly-raced and really progressive type who comes to town on a hat-trick.

Bet: Poppin’ Champagne to win, quinella 2,5, box trifecta 2,5,7,8

RACE 5

True To Form was bred in Kentucky, raced in France, but has really found his best stride since he came to Australia. The Ciaron Maher trained gelding won at Newcastle at his local debut, backed it up by beating Rip Off at Hawkesbury then was run down late by Rock Empire on the Kenso. Local boy Unwritten was $17 into $11 in the Sep 14 Midway and ran accordingly. He was a tad unlucky when it is all said and done. Apollo Mission is two from two this prep.

Bet: True To Form to win or if scratched Unwritten to win

RACE 6

Negotiations is a $750,000 Easter Yearling and Denise’s Joy descendant, kicked off his last (and second) preparation with back to back wins at Wyong and Kembla. Fast forward to the present and the Ciaron Maher trained galloper was an almighty second on the Kenso splitting Tanglewood and Another Cognac no less. This race shapes as a take no prisoners affair upfront. There’s not many faster horses around the traps than Bonita Queen. Perennial is untapped.

Bet: Negotiations each-way, Daily Double 1st Leg (3), 2nd Leg (12)

RACE 7

Wow - what a race. Five of the eight are first-up; fair enough it is only 1000m but if some of these want to pour it on, the speed that is, this could be a very, very fast time for the 1000m. The top three in race book order have all trialled like bombs here and there. That goes double for Hard To Say who has won 7 races from 22 starts, a lot of them on higher quality affairs and barrier one and Nash just seals the deal. That said, the ‘best’ The Bopper would probably just ambush them late. Huge respect for Gilgai scratching I Am Unstoppable.

Bet: Hard To Say to win

RACE 8

Anderson Bridge is a Sir Patrick Hogan bred gelding from one of the great man’s most celebrated families; that of Gay Poss. This Chris Waller trained grandson of Zabeel is first-up since running in the Queensland Derby. Trialled twice and went enormous in his Sep 30 heat win here. I could see stablemate Heed The Omens being saved for a race on the Kensington track on Wednesday so eyes out for it. Sweysive has the draw and the jockey to satisfy his on-pace tendencies.

Bet: Anderson Bridge to win

MUSWELLBROOK

FIELDS AND FORM MUSWELLBROOK MONDAY

BEST BET

Race 2 No. 3: Bonding

Snitzel mare having her first run for Messara/Gavranich and Bullock. Trialled well.

NEXT BEST

Race 3 No. 4: Magic Pharoah

Probably the best horse in the race but needs it dry.

VALUE

Race 1 No. 6: On The Quiet

Bumped into Clear Thinking on debut. Trials like a good horse.

Originally published as Best bets and inside mail for Warwick Farm and Muswellbrook on Monday 7 October 2024