Best bets and inside mail for Newcastle Tuesday

Ciaron Maher-trained blueblooded colt Dumebi gets his best chance yet to chalk up his first win at Newcastle. Check out Shayne O’Cass’s best bets and race-by-race analysis.

Ciaron Maher should be smiling after Dumebi goes around at Newcastle

Here is form analyst Shayne O’Cass’s best bets and inside mail for Newcastle racing on Tuesday.

BEST BET

Race 3 No. 3: Dumebi

Lonhro colt out of a Blue Diamond runner-up. All three city runs have contained merit.

NEXT BEST

Race 5 No. 3: Zarrose

Daughter of Group 1 winner Reewaya with a tidy C.V and talent beyond provincial level.

VALUE

Race 2 No. 2: Ratharon

Working his way towards a win and gives the impression the 1600m is the key.

BEST EXOTIC

Exacta race 3 No. 3 to beat No. 1

QUADDIE

Race 5: 3

Race 6: 5,6,9.11,14

Race 7: 1,5,11

Race 8: 3,10

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Mitchell Bell could gather in enough points to win the TAB Jockeys Challenge (bar scratchings).

INSIDE MAIL

RACE 1

Whisker To Whisker, John Thompson’s daughter of his (and Guy Walter’s) bonny mares Zanbagh was whittling away the deficit with every stride when third here at Newcastle over 1850m last start. Fourth-up now and gets to 2200m — tick, tick. Chateau park drew 13 of 13 in the same race, got way back as usual, and was warming to the task late. He has won at 2200m. Dreamdeel was a fighting second in the race that we keep coming back to.

Bet: Whisker To Whisker to win

RACE 2

Rathoran has raced six times and ran well to very well at five of them. Barriers haven’t been kind to him and thus he has been getting back but to his credit, he has attacked the line with purpose. Drawn 9 of 10 here but the Newcastle Mile offsets that. Monty Be Quick has been costly in his two Australian starts/losses but they were both 1300m and he is a Miler from nose to tail. In Iso has just two third from 15 starts but was running on rather well at Wyong.

Bet: Rathoran to win, exacta 2 to beat 1

RACE 3

Dumebi is a Lonhro son of Reemah who is herself a Redoute’s Choice daughter of Vormista and was runner-up to Pride Of Dubai in the Blue Diamond. The Ciaron Maher trained Dumebi has raced three times, all of them at the midweeks and in rather strong ones too. Beauty Edge (in the famous Beauty Generation silks) faded late on debut but it was a Heavy 8 at Canterbury. Has always trialled well. Supercrisp has probably struck a decent quality Newcastle Maiden Plate here but that only means he will be better odds.

Bet: Dumebi to win (best bet)

RACE 4

Mountain Top, a $250,000 Easter yearling, is by So You Think; the third dam is the mother of Savabeel. The Chris Waller trained filly has done some good things in her six starts. You get the sense that she is an improver, that is to say, every preparation should/could be better than the last. Sharpen The Knives has placed at ree of her four starts and was fourth at the other one. She’s been runner-up here twice which is all good but there is nothing sweeter for her chances than barrier one and JVO. Flying The Pin has a wide draw but remains a player.

Bet: Mountain Top to win, quinella 3,9

RACE 5

Zarrose is the second to last foal of the 2006 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes winner, Rewaaya. The Peter and Paul Snowden trained filly has two wins and two placings from her eight starts and has been unlucky at times in terms of bias-against or ‘too far back’ rides and such. Talent-wise, she is better than all of her rivals and 1400m first-up seals the deal. Lady Devine was doing her best work late when third to home-town specialist Sovereign Express at Hawkesbury first-up over 1300m. She has won up to 1500m so extra 100m suits.

Bet: Zarrose to win, exacta 3 to beat 9

RACE 6

Blue Tongue is one of not many two-year-olds out of an Octagonal mare surely. The Ron Quinton-trained gelding was $31 on debut in a Midway maiden here on June 22. Long story short, he ran way above his SP, closing to within two-lengths of Hell’s Itch. Can Expect Greater handed in a P.B at Wyong last start over 1350m. Rest assured, 1400m on a bigger track is much more favourable. Zale has run some very good races in town, was unlucky last start and gets blinkers first time.

Bet: Blue Tongue to win, box First 4: Nos. 5,6,9,11,14

RACE 7

Take Me To Church might be the flashiest horse racing at Newcastle with four white socks and a white face to match. Good news is, the horse has some substance to go with his looks. He won like an above average horse on debut and you could find a few little excuses for three unplaced runs thereafter. Amicus Curiae is a six time winner, almost seven only he was nosed out at Mudgee last start. Worx is terribly consistent and one for one at Newcastle.

Bet: Take Me To Church to win, quinella 5,11

RACE 8

Hell’s Itch is a lightly-raced daughter of Hellbent; her record currently stands five starts for a win, a second, a fourth, fifth and six which we mention only because they, the unplaced runs, were actually rather good. She won first-up with a leg in the air suggesting that she has come back better again. Maz Kanata likewise has barely, if ever, put a foot out of line in her five starts. Not that Hell’s Itch isn’t drawn well, but barrier 3 is a peach for Maz Canata.

Bet: Hell’s Itch to win, quinella 3,10, box trifecta 2,3,10,11

Originally published as Best bets and inside mail for Newcastle Tuesday