Why you should back the 2023 Melbourne Cup favourite Vauban

Vauban has to defy history to win Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup ... but a respected form guru says there are several key pointers that he can do just that.

Vauban is set to defy Melbourne Cup history and win the race that stops a nation at Flemington on Tuesday.

The Irish stayer has had more starts over the jumps than on the flat in his 14-race career including his win in the Group 1 Champions Hurdle at England’s famous Cheltenham Festival last year.

But it was his runaway win by nearly eight lengths at Royal Ascot in June that convinced his trainer, Willie Mullins, to aim the chestnut at the Melbourne Cup.

Then an easy win by Vauban in the Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes in Ireland in early August – his only stakes win on the flat – confirmed his Cup campaign.

Vauban’s reputation precedes him as he has been a long-time favourite for the $8 million Melbourne Cup (3200m) and late on Monday was rated at $4.60 with TAB Fixed Odds.

However, no international stayer has started favourite and won the Melbourne Cup – and there has been some spectacular flops since Ireland’s Vintage Crop won at 14/1 in 1993.

• Melbourne Cup favourite Vauban backed to win more than $3 million

Remember Double Trigger at 7/2 getting beaten more than 50 lengths when 17th to Doriemus in 1995. Or Oscar Schindler at 4/1 running 15th behind Saintly in 1996.

Mamool was the 11/2 favourite and ran last to Makybe Diva in 2003, Dunaden ($7) ran 14th in 2012, Fair Game ($5) finished 13th in 2015, even Deauville Legend at $4.40 could run only fourth last year.

There’s been others but this statistic alone shows the task confronting Vauban. But Mullins has also given his star an unconventional preparation for the Melbourne Cup – it is 92 days since Vauban won the Ballyroan at Naas.

Since Vintage Crop ushered in the internationalisation of the Melbourne Cup 30 years ago when he 45 days between his Irish St Leger win and Flemington, the record for the longest break between runs before winning the Cup is with Godophin’s Cross Counter at 76 days.

Form guru Gary Crispe is convinced Vauban is good enough to overcome these considerable historical precedents and finally provide Mullins with an elusive Melbourne Cup after coming so close with Max Dynamite (second) in 2016.

Timeform rated Max Dynamite 137 over hurdles and 117 on the flat before he first came to Melbourne.

Vauban, the widest margin winner at the Royal Meeting since 2004 and at the shortest price in an handicap there this century, comes down rated 119 on the flat but it is his form over hurdles that really turns heads – rated 160 after a series of placed efforts against the top hurdlers in training.

Vaubanraces in the Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy on day one of the Cheltenham Racing Festival at Prestbury Park in England. Picture: Seb Daly / Sportsfile via Getty Images

• ‘Vauban just wins ... they may as well present the Melbourne Cup now’

“How that form translates to the flat is the question that punters must answer – but the way he has gone about winning his last two, using a powerful change of gear to put wide margins on useful rivals, goes a long way to answering it,’’ Crispe said.

“Mullins is as clever as they come, and he looks to have found the right horse to land him the race that he has circled on the calendar. Vauban can also give champion rider Ryan Moore a second win in Australia’s iconic race having already steered Protectionist to victory in 2014.’’

Crispe said a vintage Caulfield Cup won by Without A Fight is the right form going into the Melbourne Cup.

“Without A Fight was well beaten in the Melbourne Cup 12 months ago on rain affected going but he has settled right into life in Australia and arrives back at Flemington off a career-best effort to land that Caulfield Cup,’’ Crispe said.

“It is true that the Caulfield Cup has not been the fertile land it once was when it comes to finding the Melbourne Cup winner. This century, 139 runners through the Caulfield Cup have produced five Melbourne Cup winners – a slightly underwhelming return – that started with Ethereal doing the double in 2001.

“There has been 16 Caulfield Cup winners attempt the double since with only Incentivise (second behind Verry Elleegant in 2021) the only one to place.

“But the weight of history won’t slow down Without A Fight, and at Caulfield he was fast. A rating of 124 there marks him down as a good Caulfield Cup winner, but importantly also a new career from just five runs in Australia.’’

Crispe said any concerns about What A Fight handling the 3200m can easily be dispelled by looking at his record on good tracks at distances of 2400m and further – four wins, six placings from 12 starts.

The Chris Waller-trained Soulcombe ran well for seventh in the Caulfield Cup after being left with too much to do after making a mess of the start.

“Soulcombe’s runs in both the Underwood and the Turnbull were terrific and point to him having a great chance here, particularly given that both runs indicated that he would be better for further,’’ Crispe said.

“His overall record also suggests as much. Soulcombe announced himself as potentially very smart when winning the Melrose at York by a wide margin, stopping the clock more than two seconds faster than the 2022 Ebor over the same course later on the card.

“The Ebor winner, Trawlerman, is now one of the best stayers in Britain, taking down Kyprios in the Long Distance Cup last time, and that is a clue that we may not have seen all that Soulcombe has to offer in Australia just yet.

“Soulcombe does have a tendency to do things wrong but champion trainer Chris Waller is delving into his bag of tricks for the Cup and with one of the best lightweight jockeys in the world Joao Moreira engaged to ride, he looms large as one of the best rated runners.’’

Originally published as Why you should back the 2023 Melbourne Cup favourite Vauban