The Bart Cummings blueprint: There’s only one Melbourne Cup chance

The Cups King had a tried and proven Melbourne Cup formula that stood the test of time … and there’s just one horse in this year’s field which qualifies.

The ghost of Bart Cummings has found Kalapour as the horse to beat in the $8 million Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m) at Flemington on Tuesday.

Cummings will always be remembered for his 12 Melbourne Cup wins — and the blueprint he developed to win the nation’s greatest race.

The “Cups King” had a tried and proven formula for the Melbourne Cup that stood the test of time comprising:

• Up to seven preparatory races during the spring.

• These races needed to have an aggregate distance of at least 10,000m.

• A final lead-up on Derby Day in either the Mackinnon Stakes or the Lexus Archer Stakes.

Most of Bart’s 12 Melbourne Cup winners followed this program, with Light Fingers (1965), Galilee (1966), Red Handed (1967), Think Big (1975), Gold And Black (1977), Hyperno (1979), Let’s Elope (1991), Rogan Josh (1999) and Viewed (2008) all contesting the Mackinnon Stakes before winning the Cup.

Bart Cummings and jockey Blake Shinn celebrate their Melbourne Cup win with Viewed in 2008. Picture: File

• Melbourne Cup favourite backed to win more than $3 million

Cummings’ other Cup winners, Think Big (1974) and Kingston Rule (1990), won the Cup after using the Hotham (now Archer Stakes) Handicap as a final lead-up run.

His only Cup winner which didn’t race on Derby Day, champion Saintly (1996), won the Cox Plate and didn’t start again until the Melbourne Cup.

Other trainers tried to emulate the “Bart Blueprint” and it became almost mandatory to follow the great trainer’s proven Cup formula.

In fact, in a 20-year period from 1975, 17 Melbourne Cup winners raced in either the Mackinnon Stakes or the Lexus Archer Stakes on Derby Day.

But with the internationalisation of the Melbourne Cup in 1993 when Irish stayer Vintage Crop scored an historic win, the nature of Australia’s great race changed.

The Mackinnon Stakes is no longer run on Derby Day with the VRC shifting the weight-for-age race to the final Saturday of the Cup Carnival, and since Vintage Crop, only five Cup winners raced on Derby Day, the last being Shocking in 2009.

It is almost as if the “Bart Blueprint” has become an anachronism because the only horse in Tuesday’s big race exactly fits the criteria – Kalapour.

Kalapour, pictured winning Saturday’s Archer Stakes, is the only horse in this year’s Melbourne Cup field to follow the ‘Bart Blueprint’. Picture: George Sal / Racing Photos

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The Kris Lees-trained Kalapour has had five starts this preparation, racing over a total distance of 11,600m.

Kalapour actually contested a sixth race, the Wyong Cup over 2100m but lost his rider with about 700m to go and still completed the course riderless.

But Kalapour needed to race on Derby Day and win the Archer Stakes to secure a Melbourne Cup which he duly delivered under Hall of Fame jockey Damien Oliver.

Lees was revealed he was aware of Cummings’s Melbourne Cup formula.

“I was actually thinking on Derby Day that Kalapour fits Bart’s criteria,’’ Lees said.

“I believe it still has some relevance even today although with all the European stayers, the race has changed a bit.

“But Kalapour is as bright as a button after he won on Saturday and will go into the Cup a very fit horse.

“Whether he has the class is the query but he only has 50kg on his back and he will stay a strong 3200m.’’

Who else but Damien Oliver 🤩

It’s a Golden Ticket into Tuesday’s Cup for Kalapour who takes out the Group 3 Lexus Archer Stakes in a strong display of staying power over the 2500m #DerbyDay

📽 @10SportAUpic.twitter.com/PWbHWhH6wx

— Victoria Racing Club (@FlemingtonVRC) November 4, 2023

• The big bets for Melbourne Cup Day

There are only four other Cup starters who come close to “Bart’s Blueprint” and one of those is Kalapour’s stablemate Cleveland, a last start winner of the Moonee Valley Gold Cup.

The only one of Cummings’ 12 Cup winners who didn’t race on Derby Day was Saintly which won the Cox Plate at the Moonee Valley carnival.

“We are pretty happy with Cleveland, he’s had a good preparation for the Cup,’’ said Lees of the Team Williams-owned stayer that has contested races over a total distance of 11,800m this spring.

There are only three other Cup starters that come close to fulfilling the Cummings criteria including the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained Military Mission.

The tough Military Mission has had six starts this spring for wins in the Newcastle Gold Cup and Herbert Power Handicap, racing over a total of 13,300.

"Military Mission got him right on the line."@RachelK11 gets the timing spot on as the @GaiWaterhouse1 & Adrian Bott grey takes out the @newcastleraces_ Cup over a game Spirit Ridge with Hosier in third. @tabcomaupic.twitter.com/EY0Np3NUTN

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) September 15, 2023

The Ciaron Maher and David Eustace stable have five starters in the Melbourne Cup including Future History and Interpretation.

Future History has had six races this spring, winning The Bart Cummings and finishing third in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, covering a total of 12,700m.

Interpretation has had five starts leading into the Melbourne Cup, racing over a total of 11,060m including his Bendigo Cup win last week.

But the remaining 19 Cup starters have had comparatively light campaigns going into Tuesday’s race.

This is a reflection of the northern hemisphere influence where their stayers do not race as frequently and usually are given longer breaks between runs.

Vintage Crop set the standard with a 45-day break between his Irish St Leger win and Melbourne Cup triumph.

But Godolphin’s Cross Counter went 76 days between his second in the Great Voltigeur Stakes at England’s York racecourse before winning the 2018 Melbourne Cup.

There are three international raiders in the Melbourne Cup attempting to win the race without a lead-up including favourite Vauban, Absurde and Lastotchka.

There was plenty of action on Melbourne Cup favourite Vauban at the Call Of The Card, where he was backed to win more than $3 million 👇

UPDATED STORY: https://t.co/wxzzPLxEnjpic.twitter.com/pNTPk4zWmv

— Racenet (@RacenetTweets) November 6, 2023

Vauban will need to break new ground to win the Melbourne Cup as he has had 92 between runs since winning the Ballyroan Stakes.

Vintage Crop, Cross Counter, Rekindling (2017) and Twilight Payment (2020) all won the Melbourne Cup without a lead-up run in Australia.

The other northern hemisphere-trained stayers to win the Melbourne Cup, Media Puzzle (2002), Delta Blues (2006), Americain (2010), Dunaden (2011) and Protectionist (2014) raced at least once before going to Flemington on the first Tuesday in November.

Originally published as The Bart Cummings blueprint: There’s only one Melbourne Cup chance