Melbourne Cup form guide 2023: Every horse rated by racing expert Mitch Lewis

Form guide expert Mitch Lewis has revealed the obvious winner to take out the Melbourne Cup, but late news has sent a shockwave across the field.

The full field for the 2023 Melbourne Cup has been set with 23 horses competing for the greatest prize in Australian horse racing.

The field for the iconic $8 million Cup is dominated by foreign raiders — and there are some important details to be aware of before settling on a betting strategy for the 3200m handicap.

I’ve got my eye on 2022 Cup winner Gold Trip to go back-to-back and there are some alarming warning signs surrounding some of the horses considered to be the biggest challengers to the seven-year-old gelding.

Gold Trip was also given another boost on Saturday after drawing Gate No. 2 during the barrier draw.

Here’s everything you need to know about each runner for when the race that stops the nation jumps at 3pm (AEDT) on Tuesday at Flemington.

The big news across the field on Tuesday morning was the decision from connections of Future notifying stewards of their intention to ride the horse forward.

Tuesdays Weather Forecast – 29C, medium chance of showers for the afternoon

Expected Track Conditions – Track will be a GOOD4 at the start of the day, showers may change that through the afternoon.

Mitch’s Race Selections

1- GOLD TRIP

5- VAUBAN

3- WITHOUT A FIGHT

7- ABSURDE

BOXED TRIFECTA / FIRST 4 – 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 11, 15

I’m backing GOLD TRIP to be able to pull off back to back Melbourne Cup victories.

I have really liked his lead up races coming into this year’s Cup and it has been a very similar lead up to last year.

The way he has been finishing off his last few races suggest to me that rising out to the 3200m is ideal.

If the showers do get to Flemington before the race, I will be even keener.

Need to include VAUBAN who, on paper has the best staying credentials of any of the runners in the field. Whispers from track work at Flemington earlier in the week said he looked unbelievable, my slight concern though is how he will present in the mounting yard if he isn’t very comfortable pre-race, so treating him as a watch an act option.

WITHOUT A FIGHT was an impressive winner of The Caulfield Cup and will likely appreciate a Good rated track more than what GOLD TRIP will.

Mark Zahra having the choice of the two rides and choosing WITHOUT A FIGHT shouldn’t be taken lightly either. Feel like ABSURDE is the best of the runners at “roughie” odds given he has won some very good staying races back home in the UK and the good track is ideal for him.

(1) GOLD TRIP (France)

Mark Zahra has jumped ship after winning the Cup on Gold Trip last year. Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images.

Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / Jockey: James McDonald

Age/Sex: 7YO / Gelding

Barrier: 2

Weight: 58.5kg

Career Record: 24:3-5-5

Career Prize Money: $7,342,739

Winning Distance Range: 2000m-3200m

TAB Fixed Odds: $4.60

The winner of the 2022 Melbourne Cup. His lead up preparation into this race has been very similar to last years, with good runs in The Caulfield Cup and The Cox Plate. He has a few things against him including having to carry the heaviest weight of the entire field and there are questions around how well he handles a dry track. But, he has the potential to be a star horse who may not be bothered by any of those concerns and if the expected showers hit Flemington before The Cup, his chances go well up. The manner in which he won last year, you know he will see out this race strongly. Australia’s leading jockey James McDonald taking the ride is also a bonus.

(2) ALENQUER (France)

Trainer: Michael Moroney / Jockey: Damien Oliver

Age/Sex: 6YO / Gelding

Barrier: 9

Weight: 56.5kg

Career Record: 18:5-2-1

Career Prize Money: $1,502,333

Winning Distance Range: 1400m-2400m

TAB Fixed Odds: $71

A European import who won a Group 1 race in Ireland in 2022 and competed in what is commonly regarded as the worlds greatest staying race The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in Paris before he was purchased to come over to Australia. Those European form lines are very strong, but he hasn’t managed to find his best form here in Australia. He has had 5 runs here in Australia and has had a best finishing position of 5th in The Might & Power. He will potentially be the sentimental selection of a lot of punters as he is to be ridden by Australian racing icon Damien Oliver in his last Melbourne Cup before he retires. If ALENQUER can recapture his European form, he would go close in this race, but we haven’t seen much to suggest he can find that form here.

(3) WITHOUT A FIGHT (Ireland)

Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman / Jockey: Mark Zahra

Age/Sex: 7YO / Gelding

Barrier: 16

Weight: 56.5kg

Career Record: 22:10-3-4

Career Prize Money: $4,411,620

Winning Distance Range: 1800m-2800m

TAB Fixed Odds: $7

The winner of the 2023 Caulfield Cup two weeks ago. He is a quality staying horse and proved that in his big last start win. He contested this race last year finishing 13th when coming straight off the plane from Europe.

He has stayed here ever since so has had time to adjust to Australian conditions now. His form suggests he will handle the warm conditions expected, and a key piece of information is the fact that jockey Mark Zahra, who rode last year’s winner GOLD TRIP, decided to ride WITHOUT A FIGHT instead for this year’s cup. A very good chance to complete the Caulfield & Melbourne Cups double.

(4) BREAKUP (Japan)

Trainer: Tatsuya Yoshioka / Jockey: Kohei Matsuyama

Age/Sex: 6YO / Horse

Barrier: 18

Weight: 55kg

Career Record: 22:5-3-4

Career Prize Money: $2,200,392

Winning Distance Range: 2200m-2500m

TAB Fixed Odds: $19

The Japanese are well known to be the breeders of the best horses in the world and they bring one over for this years race. We saw BREAKUP compete in The Caulfield Cup where he did get caught up in the fast speed they ran early in the race and he tired to finish 8th. He clearly needed that run to get some extra fitness leading into this race. One of the big question marks around BREAKUP is if he can see out a strong 3200m race. If he does handle that trip, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him cross the line if the first few and a good price. Each-way player.

(5) VAUBAN (France)

Willie Mullins, trainer of Melbourne Cup favourite Vauban. Photo by Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images.

Trainer: Willie Mullins / Jockey: Ryan Moore

Age/Sex: 6YO / Gelding

Barrier: 3

Weight: 55kg

Career Record: 14:7-3-1

Career Prize Money: $788,178

Winning Distance Range: 2200m-3400m

TAB Fixed Odds: $3.30

Has been the long-term betting favourite of the race for a while now. He is a 3x Group 1 winner in Europe and his credentials as a staying horse are probably the best in this field. He should have no problems running out the 3200m and his barrier draw will see him get a very economical run. He did some track work at Flemington earlier in the week that was the talk of the town behind the scenes due to how impressive he looked as well and how nicely he travelled when running. The wispers will have rocked the rest of the field. The team have had a long term plan to compete in this race so expect him to be in top shape. But we will be keeping an eye on him in the mounting yard, the warm conditions may be something he hasn’t experienced before and you don’t want to see him getting to hot and bothered before he has even stepped onto the track. If his manners are in check in the mounting yard, he does look like he may be very hard to beat.

(6) SOULCOMBE (Great Britain)

Trainer: Chris Waller / Jockey: Joao Moreira

Age/Sex: 5YO / Gelding

Barrier: 4

Weight: 53.5kg

Career Record: 15:5-1-1

Career Prize Money: $792,306

Winning Distance Range: 1700m-2800m

TAB Fixed Odds: $10

An imported stayer who was brought out here 12 months ago with this race in mind. He runs like he should have no issues at all seeing out the 3200m trip and ran a very good Caulfield Cup run when flashing home to run by a few and finish 7th. Outside of that, his lead up races have all been very good. He has been having problems in his last few starts though with being very slow to jump away from the barriers. He cannot afford to miss the kick in this race like he did in The Caulfield Cup, it will make his job extremely tough given he will jump from barrier 4 and could find himself crowded early and with not a lot of room. But if he jumps well and at least gets away on even terms everyone else and can settle closer, he is a big chance, but that’s the risk you take with him. Good play Each-way.

(7) ABSURDE (France)

Trainer: Willie Mullins / Jockey: Zac Purton

Age/Sex: 6YO / Gelding

Barrier: 8

Weight: 53kg

Career Record: 15:4-6-2

Career Prize Money: $704,905

Winning Distance Range: 2000m-4000m

TAB Fixed Odds: $21

ABSURDE is the stable mate of race favourite VAUBAN, but he does also have strong credentials himself as a staying type horse. In August, ABSURDE won The Ebor at York (UK) over the 2816m, that race gives runners a golden ticket into the Melbourne Cup. ABSURDE also ran 2nd behind VAUBAN at Ascot (UK) last year, while he was beaten that day by a big 7.5 length margin, he gets to carry significantly less weight in this race and he has a good record on a Good rated track which we will be more than likely racing on come Tuesday afternoon. He isn’t the roughest option and is a good Each Way hope.

(8) RIGHT YOU ARE

Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / Jockey: John Allen

Age/Sex: 7YO

Barrier: 15

Weight: 53kg

Career Record: 26:10-4-4

Career Prize Money: $1,095,805

Winning Distance Range: 1400m-2400m

TAB Fixed Odds: $61

Ran 5th in this year’s Caulfield Cup but there was more to the eye than his finishing position. The leaders in the race (including himself) ran a very fast tempo early before most dropped off late fading out and finishing back through the field. RIGHT YOU ARE managed to fight on late and held onto 5th position, sticking on better than others which was a very encouraging effort and an effort that suggests the 3200m trip won’t concern him much. If the race is run to suit him, he could give this a shake and is one of the better roughie chances.

(9) VOW AND DECLARE

2019 was a long time ago for Vow and Declare. Picture: Jason Edwards

Trainer: Danny O’Brien / Jockey: Billy Egan

Age/Sex: 8YO / Gelding

Barrier: 19

Weight: 53kg

Career Record: 37:5-7-4

Career Prize Money: $7,103,920

Winning Distance Range: 1800m-3200m

TAB Fixed Odds: $34

Was the winner of the 2019 Melbourne Cup but he has found things a lot tougher since that day given his ratings went through the roof. With his rating back down now, he gets to carry a more manageable weight and is clearly proven capable of running out this trip. His recent runs in The Moonee Valley Cup and The Might & Power were encouraging and suggest he is somewhere close to his best form, but he probably needs to turn the clock back a few years to produce an effort big enough to win this. Top 10 chance.

(10) CLEVELAND (Ireland)

Trainer: Kris Lees / Jockey: Michael Dee

Scratched after compulsory vet check.

(11) ASHRUN (France)

Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Age/Sex: 8YO / Gelding

Barrier: 11

Weight: 51.5kg

Career Record: 17:4-3-1

Career Prize Money: $578,819

Winning Distance Range: 2200m-2500m

TAB Fixed Odds: $41

Has recently spent a long time off with injury since he competed in the 2020 Melbourne Cup where he finished 10th. He has now strung 3 races together and will have a solid fitness base behind him leading into this. His last start effort to run 2nd in The Geelong Cup was an encouraging sign that he may be about to find his peak form. The stable is confident he will see out a strong 3200m trip and will be hitting the line strongly late. He isn’t the roughest hope in this if he produces his best, not the worst bet for punters who like to back roughies.

(12) DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR (NZ)

Trainer: Phillip Stokes / Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse

Age/Sex: 6YO / Gelding

Barrier: 12

Weight: 51.5kg

Career Record: 27:7-1-2

Career Prize Money: $798,642

Winning Distance Range: 1600m-3200m

TAB Fixed Odds: $101

Is a proven stayer that has previously run really well when he has contested races over the 3200m trip including running 6th in this race last year and he was the winner of the 2022 Adelaide Cup. He may be slightly past his prime nowadays which is the query on him, and may find it tough to win this race, but he may be a hope to finish in the top 10 based on his record over this trip and the fact he likes a dry track will help him, but only if the showers stay away.

(13) OKITA SOUSHI (IRE)

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien / Jockey: Dylan Gibbons

Age/Sex: 6YO / Horse

Barrier: 20

Weight: 51.5kg

Career Record: 13:4-2-3

Career Prize Money: $181,538

Winning Distance Range: 2150m-3200m

TAB Fixed Odds: $101

Never really got going in The Caulfield Cup when he found himself settling last in the field and then he was really only grinding towards the finish line. His best chance is the fact that rising in trip to the 3200m does suit him now. But he will need to improve a lot from that Caulfield Cup run to be competitive in this.

(14) SHERAZ (FR)

Trainer: Chris Waller / Jockey: Beau Mertens

Age/Sex: 7YO / Gelding

Barrier: 22

Weight: 51.5kg

Career Record: 23:4-5-2

Career Prize Money: $645,502

Winning Distance Range: 2200m-3000m

TAB Fixed Odds: $126

His best effort since arriving in Australia in 2021, was when he ran 2nd in the 2022 Sydney Cup which is run over the same 3200m trip. Outside of that, his recent efforts aren’t what you would expect from a horse that comes out and wins a Melbourne Cup. The dry track is also against him as he prefers when it is wet. Hard to have for this level of race.

(15) LASTOTCHKA (FR)

Trainer: Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr) / Jockey: Craig Williams

Age/Sex: 5YO / Mare

Barrier: 21

Weight: 51kg

Career Record: 12:4-2-1

Career Prize Money: $292,365

Winning Distance Range: 1800m-3100m

TAB Fixed Odds: $26

Intriguing runner who makes her Australian debut in The Melbourne Cup. She should have no issues seeing out the 3200m trip, she was a Group 3 level winner over a 3100m in her last start in France. All the chatter is that are that she looked very good completing some track work at Flemington earlier this week as well. Her record suggests she would prefer that the track was a bit wet so look for those showers to hopefully hit the track, but also don’t be surprised to see her run a strong race here as an each-way hope.

(16) MAGICAL LAGOON (Ireland)

Queensland jockeys Ben Thompson and Mark Du Plessis will ride in the 2023 Melbourne Cup. Picture: Grant Peters - Trackside Photography.

Trainer: Chris Waller / Jockey: Mark Du Plessis

Age/Sex: 5YO / Mare

Barrier: 7

Weight: 51kg

Career Record: 13:3-1-0

Career Prize Money: $778,496

Winning Distance Range: 1600m-2400m

TAB Fixed Odds: $126W / $24PL

The expected good track conditions will be in his favour as all of his best career runs have come on dry tracks. But he is rising well up in grades here and will need to improve a fair bit to be able to win a race like this. His best chance will likely be if he can lead the race early and then control the tempo of how fast the race is being run and try to steal it with a bold run. He does looks tested here.

(17) MILITARY MISSION (Ireland)

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / Jockey: Rachel King

Age/Sex: 6YO / Gelding

Barrier: 5

Weight: 51kg

Career Record: 27:7-5-3

Career Prize Money: $798,895

Winning Distance Range: 1900m-2400m

TAB Fixed Odds: $41

Won The Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes over the 2400m last start and has had a good trial since then to maintain his fitness levels. This is a step up in class now though and he needs a lot to go right to win. He will carry a light weight and jump from barrier 5 which should see him land in a handy position in running but does look only capable of a place chance at best.

(18) SERPENTINE (Ireland)

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / Jockey: Jye McNeil

Age/Sex: 7YO / Gelding

Barrier: 1

Weight: 51kg

Career Record: 21:3-3-1

Career Prize Money: $919,079

Winning Distance Range: 2000m-2400m

TAB Fixed Odds: $71

The Lloyd Williams-owned horse finished well down the field in this race last year but he was coming off of a 3 day turn around so there were some definite excuses for him. He likes a dry track and from barrier 1 looks the most likely leader in the early parts of this race. The rise in class will test him though so his best hope will be if he can lead from start to stop. Jye McNeil is in the saddle and he managed to produce an all the way victory in the 2020 Cup on TWILIGHT PAYMENT, will need a repeat effort here if they are going to win.

(19) VIRTUOUS CIRCLE (NZ)

Trainer: Liam Howley / Jockey: Craig Newitt

Age/Sex: 4YO / Horse

Barrier: 6

Weight: 51kg

Career Record: 13:2-2-1

Career Prize Money: $687,700

Winning Distance Range: 1500m

TAB Fixed Odds: $126

The youngest horse in the race who is taking a big step up in grade to compete in this Cup. His 2 career wins have both only come over the 1500m trip as well. He doesn’t look a likely winner against a field this strong.

(20) MORE FELONS (Ireland)

Damien Oliver and Jamie Kah pose with the Melbourne Cup. Photo by Scott Barbour/Racing Photos via Getty Images)

Trainer: Chris Waller / Jockey: Jamie Kah

Age/Sex: 5YO / Gelding

Barrier: 24

Weight: 50.5kg

Career Record: 14:4-2-0

Career Prize Money: $193,746

Winning Distance Range: 1600m-3400m

TAB Fixed Odds: $34

A European import who was formerly called SCRIPTWRITER when he was racing overseas. He has had one Australian run where he ran an impressive 5th hitting the line very strongly late in The Geelong Cup. That suggested that he appreciate the rise to the 3200m trip now and he can take some good improvement out of that first Australian run. He has raced against both VAUBAN & ABSURDE this year and was well beaten by both so may need to improve a lot of lengths to catch those two at least. He has also drawn the widest barrier in barrier 24 and it may take a gem of a ride from Jamie Kah to get him in the right position from wide out there.

(21) FUTURE HISTORY (Great Britain)

Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / Jockey: Hollie Doyle

Age/Sex: 6YO / Gelding

Barrier: 13

Weight: 50kg

Career Record: 16:6-4-1

Career Prize Money: $585,188

Winning Distance Range: 1800m-2500m

TAB Fixed Odds: $26W

Won his ticket into this race when winning The Group 3 Bart Cummings at Flemington a month ago which warrants automatic entry into the Melbourne Cup. He has since had a run in The Moonee Valley Cup, finishing 3rd but, it was really only a good tick over run to maintain his fitness levels. This is a step up in class for him and his hardest test to date and the distance may test him.

There was some big news surrounding the runner on Tuesday morning with stewards announcing they had been advised of plans for Doyle to ride the gelding forward.

Doyle will be aiming to become just the second female jockey to win the Melbourne Cup after Michelle Payne’s famous win on Prince Of Penzance in 2015. She is the first international jockey to ride in the race.

Under the rules of racing, connections are obliged to advise stewards of any changes to tactics used in their previous run.

The tactical change is obviously a massive gamble.

(22) INTERPRETATION (Ireland)

Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / Jockey: Teo Nugent

Age/Sex: 6YO / Gelding

Barrier: 17

Weight: 50kg

Career Record: 16:4-1-2

Career Prize Money: $587,850

Winning Distance Range: 2000m-2800m

TAB Fixed Odds: $101

Confirmed his position in this cup field last week when he won The Bendigo Cup. This is a few steps up in grade now which will test him and when he did compete in this race last year, he failed to finish. His recent form doesn’t suggest he is going well enough to win this race even though he is a last start winner.

(23) KALAPOUR (Ireland)

Trainer: Kris Lees / Jockey: Zac Lloyd

Age/Sex: 7YO / Gelding

Barrier: 14

Weight: 50kg

Career Record: 18:4-3-4

Career Prize Money: $405,049

Winning Distance Range: 1500m-2550m

TAB Fixed Odds: $61

Won his entry into the Cup by winning the Archer Stakes on Saturday. He will now have to produce a big effort to turn around and back that up with only a three day break in between. It will be an impressive feat from the stable if they do get him to turn around fast enough and back up to win this. He is a real griding type of stayer so should have no real problems running out the 3200m if he backs up, but this level of race will really test him.

(24) TRUE MARVEL (France)

Trainer: Matthew Smith / Jockey: Ben Thompson

Age/Sex: 8YO / Gelding

Barrier: 10

Weight: 50kg

Career Record: 53:8-7-5

Career Prize Money: $766,340

Winning Distance Range: 2100m-3800m

TAB Fixed Odds: $151

Only presents a true roughie hope in this field, but he does enjoy running over the 3200m trip so should have no issues with running out the distance. He will be breaking records if he wins this race as there wouldn’t have been many runners who have won a hurdle race in Hamilton and then six months later turned that into winning the Melbourne Cup.

— Mitch Lewis is a form guide expert and racing commentator for SEN radio. You can get his latest updates on Twitter, @mitchlewis101

Originally published as Melbourne Cup form guide 2023: Every horse rated by racing expert Mitch Lewis